Why property chat ?

Actually it can . Most forumites are aware of mania such a tulipmania . We are aware of the existence of property bubbles , how Ireland and the US markets crashed and all the changes and limitations on finance etc ad nausea . I have a lot more reason to consider those issues than you do , because I have a significant amount of " skin in the game " which you don't have

Ridiculous ... yes ... one example . You take a comment about buying 19 properties in one year ( that was me and it was actually 20 months ) and then apply that to someone buying at the peak of the Ireland boom and wondering how they would have gone and use that as a base for arguing against property investing . And that's not ridiculous ? ....

Do you know anyone on THIS FORUM who invested or suggested investing in Ireland . I've been here for along time and never heard Ireland suggested as an investment target . The 19 properties was one of the most informed and certain investments I've made . It was a highly researched and informed decision . My biggest regret is I didn't buy more , which I could have ....

I don't see people suggesting people go off and buy 19 properties now . Changed market .

If you want to be taken seriously ( and plenty of long term members disagree ) stick to realistic examples and don't just bring out your version of the boogie man ad nausea ...

Cliff

 

You bought 19 properties in a short period of time. The reason I mentioned that is if you'd done that in Ireland 2006 you would have been wiped out, as many people were. That "own four IP" thread is the same - take any of that advice to Ireland 2006 and go bankrupt. Take it to US pre-GFC and it's the same.

I have no idea why you're asking if anyone here has suggested investing in Ireland... did you get confused?

Ireland is a very realistic example. Massive overbuilding, cheap credit. The US is good too - subprime and fraud.

There is a serious apartment crash looming which three years ago was being soundly ignored. The advice then is the advice now - drink down that debt. Given how dramatically our economy has changed it's ridiculous the same advice is handed out.

 

Sigh .....

Cliff

 

My opinion... It's just too hard to debate with some people.

 

I really don't know why you're bothering.

 

Yep. Let a sleeping dog lie.

 

Good point. You've convinced me. Property is awesome! Buy now!

 

Yep . It pointless and I had ignored them after initial post , but I was bored at work this afternoon . I had seen a flicker of intelligence in some of Emza's posts but obviously I was mistaken . Maybe if I had read enough of them , but that won't be a mistake I'll make .....

Now I know how Hilliary felt

Cliff

 

One of the major issues leading to widespread falls in property values and the overall crash in Ireland was that the residential property sector (new construction) was contributing over 25% to the gdp. This was unsustainable.

 

Wow 19 properties i hadn't heard that story. imagine if you made $4k off each- After selling costs of course .... if my numbers are correct you could have the year off work!

You guys have fought a long battle and should be very proud. For celebrations you should borrow more or increase the rent on a few properties

 

And push & pull factors........20,000 Irish move to the UK annually joining half a million others.
Compare that with Australia who has an intake of over 20,000 + skilled migrants per month...
Supply & demand waves hello!

 

I see both sides here. Parts of the aus residential property sector are indeed 'at-risk' of significant correction.

BUt the keyword here is 'parts' not ALL.

Some who own too much of the wrong kind of stock will indeed get burned / rolled by the correction. But others will not be affected and indeed flourish during he otherwise tense times of 2018-2020 ahead.

Others again will be well positioned to strike during this time. Sad to say it but if there are to be what I am gonna put out there and label as... um ... 'micro bloodbaths' (you know, the usual well-published inner city bris, mel, gold coast, can, perth OTP medium and high rise apartments, to be precise)... there will be those with access to equity and borrowing power who can and will swoop in and buy only the pickings that are worth it - if indeed any are - at a well below-market-rate value, and profiteer from it.

In fact, in my circles I know several such people planning for this action already. seriously. i'm talking: people who have scoped out every development in approval or building-commencement stages in oversupply markets; identified the units within those blocks worth considering, then calculated BMV buy rates where these become viable investment prospects again. i.e. an OTP in a medium-rise with low strata, well positioned with good north aspect light, in blocks that aren't slap-up crp that falls aprt after a couple years. lets say said unit is OTP at $400K currently. but perhaps at 250K it becomes a viable prospect. Wait until micro-bloodbath is at peak and then strike.

Citing Ireland, GFC, subprime crises of the past is relevant, i do not doubt. But in each of these, so too did smart folk prosper during the bloodbath and ensuing period thereafter.

Yes, yes... micro-bloodbaths.

See, the mainstream sensationalist murdoch, fairfax etc. media outlets wil no doubt 'front-page' that the WHOLE AU market is falling apart, even if on further inspection the reality is but a handful of suburbs in bris/mel are the only ones micro-bloodbathing. thats what they do. and the masses will gobble that story up and then this fear wll penetrate into action more widely.

Ever the optimist, I'll be one of those looking for the opportunities amongst this chaos.

Because as others have said, supply and demand. there will be oversupply for a while but the micro bloodbath that saw for a 400k property selling for say 250k (remember, in an AFFECTED market only! Dont misread that i am suggesting these falls in macro/mass market areas! just want to make that clear..), will result in a mop-up of oversupply and markets will come back to balance whilst prices will be BMV. But as mentioned, only for the 'right' stock. 9 out of 10 towers wont be worth a look but thst 10th tower may actually have good fundamentals.

 

Great post .

 

Just in response to these suggestions that a mass market, AU-wide, ALL housing stock crash will happen.

And that... even if mini crashes are to happen in oversupplied unit markets, smart money will play selectively and do well.

Smart money learns from property chat!

I've been part of this community for 6 or so years now and attribute a lot of my success to date, from my learnings on here. In fact at 34 I am now over 40% to my retirement goal. I wont post how many properties or how many millions of dollars worth (or perhaps a more relevant metric than both of these; how much net equity and actual personal net-worth) i've accumulated but the point is i am on-target to a rather ambitious life-goal and could not have done it without this community's help

 

Ahaa...pounce...gotcha.... Clit you sly devil...you.....ya denied you only bought 14 places....now say 19 in 20 months...please share.......

Very noice......you da the Apprentice Timing Lord...hats off old boy.

PS - Ireland would be very serious contender for investment...prices are down...economy is doing well....dollar against Euro not bad....just my thoughts.

 

City of Belmont in Perth. Prices have already dropped so much and yet there are at least two 3-storey blocks of apartments being built. I expect these to be affected even more. Whether any deals will stack up when that happens is anyone's guess.

 

Another inspiring (and thoughtful) 34 yo. Was something in the water in 1981/1982?

 

Just don't get caught up in the next Irish bubble (you know there is always an impending bubble just around the corner)

After having endured the collapse of its housing market less than a decade ago, Ireland has lately been experiencing a blistering recovery in prices, which already have risen in Dublin by some 50% from the trough in 2010. Is Ireland setting itself up for another devastating crash?
​

The Return of Ireland’s Housing Bubble

 

This is very cool! So you can make money off OTP!

 

@bob shovel I think some of the OTP is good quality, yes. well, a minority of it perhaps.

Just dont actually buy it OTP!! Buy it 2YA.

(I literally just made up an acronym: 'two years after' hahahahahha)