QLD Why I bought in Goodna - See Change

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by See Change, 20th Feb, 2016.

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  1. Tom Rivera

    Tom Rivera Property Manager Business Member

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    Goodna DEFINITELY has spots to avoid. They're usually pretty obvious when you visit the street, it's just not an area you want to buy sight unseen.
     
  2. Heinz57

    Heinz57 Well-Known Member

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    ...especially the ones that go underwater periodically :p
     
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  3. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    Goodna is missin a y.........goodnya......

    and what do you have against 5 commodores or falcons etc minus wheels and engines that are near the front porch and in the living room Tom ?

    And has anyone even told some of these people that all the kids toys etc go in the "back" yard ?
     
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  4. Tom Rivera

    Tom Rivera Property Manager Business Member

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    Wait till you see the backyards, then you'll understand why the kids play out the front :O
     
  5. Greyghost

    Greyghost Well-Known Member

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    Went through Goodna when visiting a client in Ipswich last week. Didn't inspire much confidence in it. Like Ipswich very remote.
    Infrastructure in Logan region is better I believe.
     
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  6. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    Oh my gord.....they cant be......can they ?
     
  7. Noobieboy

    Noobieboy Well-Known Member

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    I’m starting to research Goodna. Do you guys think it’s likely to see fire sales with the new lending conditions?
     
  8. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    When ive talked to the locals agents it’s steady as she goes . Not booming , not crashing .

    The lending changes came in a while ago , though obviously the major impact of the I/O to P/I isn’t bitting yet .

    The returns in places like goodna , logan , Ipswich are higher than in nicer areas .

    Since the changes came in we’ve sold four properties , but none in Goodna / Ipswich . We’ve taken profits on two properties in Sydney and used the profits to pay down debt and we’ve also sold two properties in Brisbane , but they were “ nice properties in nice areas “ but they were quite cash flow negative so that was to improve our cash flow .

    We bought them with the intention of paying them off with profits from selling elsewhere and keeping them as “ easy to manage “ properties . But times change and now they’re gone .

    At some stage Brisbane will boom though obviously the lending changes have delayed that . Our portfolio is a lot safer than it was a year ago .

    My feeling is that the people who were most at risk to the aphra changes are generally experienced investors and I know several others on the forum have already taken / taking remedial action to protect their positions .

    Cliff
     
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  9. Rolf Latham

    Rolf Latham Inciteful (sic) Staff Member Business Plus Member

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    Steady as she goes there

    Ta

    Rolf
     
  10. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Hi Cliff

    I disagree here.

    Any experienced investor should have structured with 10-15 years interest only with 30 year terms.

    Unfortunately...for a lot of brokers this was an after thought. Which indicates that most are not property investors.

    I have started fixing my rates I/O for 3 years at 3.89 to 4.19% to further consolidate my cash position. At the same time I am also taking profits on some properties which I see going nowhere.

    I feel a lot of the younger investors with small amounts of Cash to ride out the conversion to I/O are going to be forced to sell...because they did not anticipate this.

     
  11. euro73

    euro73 Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Experienced. Inexperienced. Large Portfolio. Small Portfolio. In many ways - just side issues, really. It comes down to the ability to manage cash flow.

    A portfolio is essentially a business. And like any business , when its largest expense (mortgage repayments) increases by 50%, it has to either remove debt or increase income, or both in order to stay in business. Unless it is exceptionally profitable ( strong cash flow or high salary ) that business cannot use the same business model under conditions where outgoings /expenses are so different and stay afloat.

    Nor can most other businesses ( the exception being the high income/high cash flow businesses) which is why traditional resi business models - buying for capital growth and holding for a "cycle" in order to realise a large capital gain, and then either selling for large profits or harvesting that gain and buying again - is over as a viable business model for most .

    That business model - remarkably effective for some ( but surprisingly not many - don't believe the hype) of the pre APRA generation - relied on your business , my business and everyone else's business being able to stay afloat (holding costs) and continuing to borrow ( borrowing capacity)

    So while it may very well be true that "experienced" investors should have availed themselves of 10 years IO or even 15 years IO as @sash has suggested, that's just not available today, so it's not helpful to anyone moving forward unfortunately. Its certainly great for those that have years of IO up their sleeve - they have plenty of time to watch, wait and see how things evolve. But even if 10 or 15 year terms were available today , I doubt many could qualify , and even if they could, it may solve their holding cost issue, but it would absolutely decimate their borrowing capacity.

    I remember very clearly being poo poo'd over the years for advocating CF+ properties as a way to reduce debt and hedge against P&I .... many "experienced" investors dismissed these ideas. Not looking like such a bad idea now,is it? And a year from now it's going to look even better. And a year after that - better still

    Every reader starting out or already on the ladder - just run your portfolio like a business. Its very simple. You know you are facing much higher costs after IO expires. Cater for this. If it means selling some stuff off to reduce debt and restore safety to your portfolio like @Sea Change has done - that's what you should do. If it means selling and replacing with a cash cow - that's what you should do. If it means adding a granny flat where allowable - thats something you should do. If it means switching your loans to P&I earlier than necessary in order to minimise the P&I shock - that's what you should do.

    It's just a business decision. You can take steps to bulletproof your portfolio with one of two recalibrations and ride out this regulatory period much more comfortably. Crazy not to think about it.

    #cashcowskilldebt

    #aheadofthecurvesincewellbeforeAPRA

    #decadetodeleverage
     
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  12. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Not all have borrowed to the limit. So they can convert to 10 years I/O with 30 year terms.

    There are some lenders who are still assessing on actuals. As I said I am looking at another $1.3m.

    As for CF properties I would only consider these if there was very good CG also otherwise you are going backwards.

    The key is to react to the changin' markets........I find some people here might have been in the invest game for year but absolute amateurs in terms of financing.

     
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  13. euro73

    euro73 Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Old mate , you make me laugh... funny stuff.
     
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  14. AndyPandy

    AndyPandy Well-Known Member

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    @sash in fairness to Ultran, Orange has been doing very well on the CG front lately as the growth moves on to regionals. However how long it will keep growing is anybody's guess. Considering regionals normally follow capital cities, I wonder if most of the growth is done.
     
  15. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Can't disagree....that is why I got out of North Albury...have plans to sell Maitland also...but I doubt the growth will be anything like Sydney.

    The only exception to that is Geelong.......but even there it is mirroring the growth in Newcastle/Central Coast...on the back of Sydney...so not a surprise
     
  16. euro73

    euro73 Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Its about far more than growth, though. These are properties that are being purchased for their cash flow qualities first and foremost. Its lovely that Orange is also seeing strong price growth, but that isn't what enables my investors and I to hold if rates climb or loans revert to P&I, and it isnt what enables my investors and I to generate 8-9K CF+ . Lots of growth and crappy yields arent a recipe for portfolio building success anymore.

    Vacancy Rates have fallen to 1.1% and population is growing at 1% per annum. And with several hundred new public service roles moving there very soon, and several hundred new medical jobs moving there soon, and several hundred new Gold mining jobs moving their soon, and a medical school opening in 2021...and a council that cant keep up with getting land subdivisions to market ( same issue Bathurst is having) there will continue to be strong population growth and that means strong demand for rentals , and I dare say quite a bit of price growth also yet to come.....

    Not all regionals are equal. Orange has a number of very good , very positive things happening that will create hundreds and hundreds of high paying jobs ( particularly the medical and mining jobs) and a lot of these people will bring their families with them . As will the growing numbers of tree changers who will be attracted to the wineries , the foodie culture, the fresh air and the great medical services . I think Orange has lots of legs in it yet....

    But as I said... the vacancy rate and the rental increases are what I'm most interested in.

    Anyway... back to Goodna
     
    Last edited: 13th Aug, 2018
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  17. Coconutwheels

    Coconutwheels Well-Known Member

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    G'day See Change, I know this is an old post, but wondering if you can recommend who you used for painting, floor polishing and BIRs?

    My place at Riverview is in need of a "shave and hair cut" after the last tenant!

    Cheers,
    Ben
     
  18. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    We used people recommended by our PM . First National

    Cliff
     
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  19. SMTY

    SMTY Well-Known Member

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    i used the below via my PM to do an interior repaint in Goodna. Did a good job and were competitive price wise.



    [​IMG]
     
  20. Coconutwheels

    Coconutwheels Well-Known Member

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    Thanks. I'll give him a call.
     

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