Why Hasn't Brisbane BOOMED

Imho all this boom talk is waaay too overrated. There is so much money to be made in markets WITHOUT it going ba-boom-crazy! I've made a ton of equity in Brisbane over the last 3 years and there was no boom.

Anyway each to their own.

 

If you want the full picture why wouldnt you include logan, redlands, ipswich, moreton bay?

It would be like not including penrith or parra.atta in sydney stats

 

They are in the referenced stats however many wouldn’t consider Bribie Island or most of the northern parts of Moreton Bay Region as Brisbane.

Additionally, Sydney population is now over 5 million & therefore many of previously non-linked outer areas are considered part of greater Sydney as infill has well & truly happened ie. Penrith / Paramatta. Brisbane however is a mere 2.4 million with vast tracks of undeveloped land between the outer limits of surrounding council regions.

 

Population forecasts are wildly inaccurate.
Here is some more recent data which isn’t 7 years old:
A current LGA population rate of 1.8% is comparable to other inner city LGAs

21,315 per year doesn’t equal 180,000 over 20 years.

 

Lets go back to the first post, why did Brissy not boom
So what has changed TODAY?

Why hasn’t Brisbane boomed?
Put simply, Brisbane has not experienced the population or jobs growth of Sydney and Melbourne. Population growth is down substantially on its average, particularly amongst interstate migrants, which is the kind of population growth that leads to more property being bought (as opposed to babies being born!). Migration is heavily influenced by jobs growth, and Brisbane has only produced 8000 new jobs in the last 12 months (half as many as the Gold Coast). Income growth has been subdued as well.

 

Given people and jobs are the two of the strongest drivers, do you think the strong upward trend in migration/immigration + a good pipeline of big projects in Brisbane will have an outperform impact? Or do you think Brissy will keep meandering along?

 

Not watching this market closely but its fragmented from the data we are seeing

some investors experiencing growth, but it comes down the product and location

 

This was just a quick google search but I've seen more recent data confirming that Brisbane has the highest interstate migration. Still not great with overseas migration but this is a start.

Interstate migration to Qld highest in 8 years as Sydney homeowners sell up - realestate.com.au

 

CBA state of the states -Jan 18 and other data that I've seen also shows that employment is growing. I've also read that the number of apartments in the pipeline is starting to fall, so a long way to go till the oversupply is soaked up but things are still looking up.

 

Where are you getting this information from? I've seen numerous sources saying interstate migration for Brisbane is the highest out of any state and the highest it has been and growing steadily.

Also on the jobs front unemployment is at record lows inline with the national average and there has been an influx of private and public investment along with continual steady jobs growth. Which is also supported by local council's GDP numbers and also reducing unemployment and number of jobs created per council.

 

Being on the ground I can tell you this supports what you are saying above.
Regarding the post question... It's because supply (reasonably high) and demand (also reasonably high, outpacing supply by a bit but not significantly so hence no wisedepread boom)

 

Read post 1 and refer to link

 

Numero uno for immigration is Melbourne....hence boom

Check out research by Mastuk has vested interest in Qld but provides facts evidence to support claims

I dont care either way I am just a messenger

 

But post 1 is now almost 1 year and 3 months old. The news for Brisbane that has demonstrated the influx of interstate net migration is < 12 months (probably more like 7-8 months) old. Plus those figures of unemployment rates and jobs growth are usually produced every quarter.

 

As the bubble pops down south, people float north as the jobs dry up down south.. has happened before, and is starting to happen now. Pretty simple.

 

But history did not repeat, Brissy did not boom after Sydney... it was Melb... why ... immigration

 

Right, can only look at the market today and whether this is true has this driven prices north...... clearly its mixed/fragmented market..... hit and miss

 

Agree with the principle- job market extremely strong here in Sydney though, and amount of Govt spending & projects looks like it will be robust for some time yet. Roads, schools, rail links. It’s all going on. 15 years too late, but it’s all going on!

 

It's what everyone expects , It's just taking its Bl...ody long time isn't it ...

Living in Sydney , no one seems to think the bottom is falling out of the place but also every one seems to have realised the boom has stopped . We have a niece who is looking to buy with her partner and at this stage they're happy to look around . They like freshwater , but aren't sure about the transport to where they work so they're looking at renting to see how it works out . It's that kind of market .

Would buy for an investment , but if you're wanting a PPOR , take our time and find the perfect property .

Cliff

 

One thing worth remembering is that interstate migration figures are basically a guess, derived from Medicare records among other things (who changes those as soon as they move? lol) even though they're nearly always reported as gospel.

Officially it's rising into Queensland, but the ABS notes in the small print that iinterstate migration can't be measured so it makes an educated 'estimate'.

As is often the case better to use your eyes & ears around Brisbane rather than rely on media-reported stats for this one. Lots of people are clearly moving up here, but also seem to be people moving o/s for better-paid jobs too, or maybe that's just in my social circle?

My two cents, buyers seem a bit cagey atm, & have a little less borrowing capacity than in the last couple of years - but you never know, if price growth picks up it might all tee off.

Would help if a major employer moved up here!