Who has it right at the moment?

Discussion in 'Property Experts' started by Serveman, 15th Apr, 2020.

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  1. Serveman

    Serveman Well-Known Member

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    Well right now, as I tidy up the backyard I have been listening to the various gurus as to what is going to happen in the next 6 months and upcoming years. The views are quite diverse ranging from full on gloom and doom to possible opportunities for a prosperous future narrative.
    About two Sunday’s ago I tuned into a webinar from Steve McKnight, and it was a very informative presentation but a very scary and sobering one. Did anyone else tune into this presentation. Since then I listened to Veronica Morgan with Shane Oliver, Michael Yardney with Andrew Wilson and Peter Switzer’s show, Margaret Lomas, Ben Kingsley, Bushy Martin with Pete Wargent and a few others to get a feel of the magnitude of the situation.
    Was wondering whether anyone else here has been tuning into these shows and what your views are of them or have you found something that you have listened to that you really recommend or concur or disagree with.
     
  2. Beano

    Beano Well-Known Member

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    That's the trouble when you listen to so many advisors.
    So hard to figure out who is going to be right or wrong .
    Which one sounded the most convincing ?
     
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  3. Serveman

    Serveman Well-Known Member

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    I’m not sure but I also listened to Phil Tarrant ( Smart Property Investment and Simon Presley to round it off. What I normally do is listen to the various view points and try and come to some conclusion, but would like to hear from what others think.
     
    Last edited: 15th Apr, 2020
  4. Blueskies

    Blueskies Well-Known Member

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  5. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    Probably more a lorenz distribution than a simple cone....

    The Y-man
     
  6. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    I have a mentor who I chat to regularly. And his advice basically didnt change to what he always tells me and i believe its sage. Its always what i have ended up doing and has never let me down so far. Its simple and you dont need to listen to every guru and his monkey lead you in a million directions.

    1. Know that in the vast majoirty of times, the best opportunities (with least amount of risk) is generally when everyone and their dog only feels fear and loudly touts doom and gloom. Act counterintuitive to the masses.

    2. Base your investment decisions around your own risk tolerances and be sure to have risk mitigation measures in place.
     
    Last edited: 16th Apr, 2020
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  7. Songo

    Songo Well-Known Member

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    I'm a scientific researcher by profession, so its literally my job to conduct research and form conclusions. Sometimes I might read 50 research articles on a similar topic, and each one makes a slightly different conclusion. So which one is right or wrong, or the most convincing? The answer is none of them. I treat each individual study like a single piece of a larger puzzle. If I only read one study, well I've got virtually no clue what the bigger picture is. But after you read dozens or hundreds, then patterns start to emerge and it becomes easier to spot a piece that just doesn't belong. So IMO reading widely isn't a problem at all, but rather its useful and helps you to determine a better overall picture.
     
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  8. Cousinit

    Cousinit Well-Known Member

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    This evening I've been watching Margaret Lomas tv show with Ian, her accountant host. The theme was tax planning and financial matters around realestate. One of the best I have seen for a while.
     
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  9. Serveman

    Serveman Well-Known Member

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    Yes, I listen to Margaret Lomas’s, “My property TV”, whenever it is broadcasted, which is fortnightly at present. In the next show she has Peter K from Adelaide as her guest.
    It’s a good show for the everyday investor which I enjoy. I used to enjoy the, “ Your money, Your call”, on sky because it went longer and there was something more attainable about property investing
    In those days then now:
     
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  10. skater

    skater Well-Known Member

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    We are currently in unprecedented times. Not one of those 'gurus' (and I use the term loosely) has experienced what is currently going on in the world right now, so how are they going to advise anyone on what to do?


    There you have it in a nutshell. Whether your choice of investment is out the back of Bourke, or innercity, the above applies.

    Sure, we are living in scary times. We don't know, what we don't know, so just make sure that you have enough of a buffer in place to see you through what may (or may not) be hard times. And remember that this too, shall pass.
     
  11. Serveman

    Serveman Well-Known Member

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    I understand that things are happening right now and many are not aware or don’t want to know. I would say that some of the gurus know what’s going on but are not prepared to talk about it publicly in fear of being ridiculed for speaking out.
     
  12. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    I think everyone is on a level playing field, including us on this forum, in that we have NFI re: what's going to transpire.
     
  13. Serveman

    Serveman Well-Known Member

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    I think we have to look at the way things are trending from as many independent sources we can and then do what we need to do to fix the situation.
     
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  14. skater

    skater Well-Known Member

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    The 'gurus' know the same as the rest of us. It's all speculation!

    Fix the situation? So, we can fix all the international issues at this time? You and I? Or others on the forum?

    Think about it for a moment. The situation here in Australia will be influenced by international issues that none of us can do anything about. We can't stop Putin. We can't stop Xi Jinping. You've a heap of inflation due to supply issues coming out of, and or due to, the actions of both of those two leaders. And that's without touching the QE going on, or interest rates, or anything else. All anyone can do is make sure that they've got enough buffers in place to weather what may come. It might be nothing......or it might not. Nobody knows for sure.
     
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  15. skater

    skater Well-Known Member

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    100% This!
     
  16. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo midas touch

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    Overall, I think you're giving them too much credit.
    • Firstly, stop listening to anyone who continuously sprouted that interest rates would stay at ridiculously low levels until 2024. That'll show you who doesn't even have two brain cells to rub together.
    • Then stop listening to anyone who said that we would be experienceing the 2nd coming of the recession we had to have. These people simply don't know how to live in the present.
    • Stop giving credence to anyone who said that regionals are a second class investment - they're just inexperienced.
    • Take no notice of anyone who is continuously wrong and just says whatever someone else said but much later, after it already hasn't happened.
    • Don't listen to a waffler, a repeater, a conman or conwoman, a wolf in sheep's clothing, or anyone who could be exaggerating or eliminating data because it keeps themselves in a job.
    Then what are you left with? There's only one or two of those who really have any idea what could be going on and I bet you they're saying there might be a correction at some time in the future as per usual but wow, have't we had a great run? Who knows how much longer it will go?
    No-one, least of all the experts, the economists, the gurus.
     
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  17. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Within my own circle are folks who are super successful in business, real estate and some share market maestros. I can unequivocally tell you no one "knows" anything with any huge degree of certainty in the short to medium term.

    What's more, the preoccupation of needing to 'know' is a huge detractor from what's really important. The most successful investors imo never travelled along a path of 'knowing'. It doesn't exist . It's completely about:

    1. Opportunity selection for you as an individual.
    2. Risk minimisation (most of the DD is spent here)
    3. Diversification.
    4. Taking action in uncertainty. Action is 99.9% of the time always taken in uncertainty.
     
  18. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    My 2 cents....run your own race.

    I make my own decisions. The same people posting on here are posting of no crash...how do they know?

    I have a plan and am sticking to it. All I know that on the balance of probabilities we can have severe correction after 30 years of growth.

    All I am doing is ensuring that all what I have worked for does not go to custard due to greed and stupidity of acquiring more in a very uncertain world.

    If you are in your 20s and 30s to make up ground but get wiped out in your 40s..50s.. that becomes an issue. Something to think about
     
  19. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    Every researcher has a different understanding and there will be similar conclusions or similar themes coming through but someone will find a gem in all of the spoil - separating the gems from the spoil is the step before taking action to achieve the end goal.
     
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  20. Traveller99

    Traveller99 Well-Known Member

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    I tend to think the economic outlook is somewhat bleak so I'll be paying down the PPoR to a serviceable level where it's barely noticeable and focusing on life and family for a bit.
     
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