Who else thinks the Sharemarket is going to tank much further?

Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by GoneFishing, 1st Apr, 2020.

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  1. PandS

    PandS Well-Known Member

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    What credit crunch have you seen how cheap company can still able to borrow?
    Banks just lend Westfield billion unsecured credit to ride out, yes unsecured credit

    Most of the business on the ASX can get whatever funding they need right now
    virtually no one has trouble accessing credit.
    QE, cheap bonds, the market has more money than they know what to do with it
    Official release from Westfield

    Scentre Group (ASX: SCG) today announced that, in light of the COVID-19 pandemic and its
    impact on capital markets globally, the Group has obtained additional unsecured bank facilities that increase the Group’s available liquidity position to $3.1 billion as at 1 April 2020.
     
    Last edited: 2nd Apr, 2020
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  2. oracle

    oracle Well-Known Member

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    Except poor residential property investors.

    Cheers,
    Oracle.
     
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  3. PandS

    PandS Well-Known Member

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    You can still get credit, banks have not stopped lending, it all comes down to your serviceability which is always the case.
    RBA has something close to 300bn ready to take on Banks mortgage book if they need to exchange for cash
     
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  4. PandS

    PandS Well-Known Member

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    Want more example of credit crunch ?
    Atlas Arteria just borrow $500m 7 years Euro bond for 1.25% :D

    Official Release

    The Bonds have a term of around 7 years and will mature on 14 January 2027, a year in which APRR
    currently has only €506m of existing maturities. The proceeds from the issuance will be used to
    refinance debt and for general corporate purposes.
    The transaction was very well received by the market with the book several times oversubscribed. As
    a result of this significant demand, the Bonds were priced at 99.507% of par with a coupon of 1.25%.
    This represents a margin of 150bp over mid-rate swaps and a yield to maturity of 1.327bp, which
    reflects the continued market support for the APRR credit
     
  5. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    And those who do not appear on anyone's radar. Yes, I'm talking about me! And why not? Have to get in with the mob otherwise I'll.....not sure yet but give me time and I'll think of something.
     
  6. dunno

    dunno Well-Known Member

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    Don't worry @SatayKing they will remember the self funded people soon enough ………....right about when the thinking turns to how to pay for it all:eek:.
     
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  7. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    Oh yes I am certainly anticipating that and more than likely concepts are in a White paper quietly being prepared now. All niceties about "The Mum's and Dad's, blah, blah, blah" will turn to "In order to secure this great country's economy, blah, blah, blah."
     
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  8. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    Yes unfortunately. Nothing will likely be off the table including franking credits I imagine. The last election was a wake up call. I learnt a lesson though in terms of being more careful in diversifying across asset classes and fund structures for future proofing against potential tax changes.

    God forbid even Geoff Wilson who lobbied hard against franking credit changes last election is prepared to give them up now due to corona virus crisis:eek::
    Geoff Wilson says franking won't escape stimulus bill

    Of course nobody knows what will happen but there are some things an investor can do to diversify against legislative risk without giving up sharemarket returns.
     
  9. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    Nice.... I'm glad the boomers are cashed up so Frydo can come after you guys :(
     
  10. Buynow

    Buynow Well-Known Member

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    In 1987 and 2007, the ASX fell around 50% from the highs; this event is arguably much more severe, so I think there is a lot more pain to come.
     
  11. Zenith Chaos

    Zenith Chaos Well-Known Member

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    Some factors to consider :
    1. How overvalued was the market on 20th Feb at its peak?
    2. How long until a turnaround in the COVID numbers?
    3. What is the true economic effect of the shutdown?
    That being said, if anyone knows with certainty the answer to the OP's question, they would become rich in a short time betting on the market. But no-one knows ahead of time and therefore it makes the most sense to invest based on what we do know - the market moves up over the long term.

    For those that said that the market is going down from here, are you willing to put your house on it?
     
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  12. vbplease

    vbplease Well-Known Member

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    I'm confident the market will take another nosedive.. but when, can't say.
    S&P 500 futures are trading approx. 2% higher despite unemployment figures being revised (expected to rise to 5 million from 3).
     
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  13. Phineas

    Phineas Well-Known Member

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    There are anti-viral and vaccine trials under way now
    Best case scenario, they are unlikely to be available for another few months
    Either way, that won't stave off the public health mandate to socially isolate and its economic consequences

    NSW has extended its isolation legislation til June
    There is talk in the health system of isolation measures across Australia to extend beyond this
    Good chance China will have a second peak (the CCP is warming up the propaganda machinery to blame this on foreign visitors)
    And the US hasn't reached peak crisis yet

    We have a ways to go yet folks, even if Australia gets off lightly health-wise, the global economy will keep us squashed
     
  14. SOULFLY3

    SOULFLY3 Well-Known Member

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    6.6 mil now in the us and only the beginning?
     
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  15. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    If lots of people each pull 20k out of their super, it would have some sort of effect on the stockmarket. Don't know how big though.
     
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  16. Buynow

    Buynow Well-Known Member

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    It’s not a matter of betting the house; it’s a question of invest now and risk losses or invest later and risk missing out on gains.
     
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  17. Brumbie

    Brumbie Well-Known Member

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    Exactly. Choose your medicine. I am at the beginning of early retirement with a lump sum. So my path is capital preservation tilted. If I was 25y old and investing I would DCA no matter the market condition.
     
  18. PandS

    PandS Well-Known Member

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    It may have some effect but the money comes in every month from other employees will fill the void
    it not that easy to take out 10K most people probably won't bother unless they are out of other means and this is the last resort

    It is a lot of rules and paper works you need to past to show you are in a desperate situation before they release the fund
     
  19. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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  20. timetoact

    timetoact Well-Known Member

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    There is no chance of a vaccine having passed clinical trials in a few months.
    Unless by a few you mean 12-18.

    No pharma company is going to risk their entire business by producing a vaccine to inject into billions of humans without doing comprehensive testing. Ain't going to happen.
     
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