Who are the Fools and who are the Suckers

Discussion in 'Investor Psychology & Mindset' started by MTR, 13th Jul, 2016.

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  1. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Not at all. I am not embarrassed to say that I have failed many times. I never blame others on my failures. This is where your argument falls down. It was only about 14 years ago I was broke, homeless and unemployed, a situation entirely of my own making. But instead of wallowing in my misery, I mapped a path out of my situation and learned from my mistakes. Most importantly, I took responsibility for my decisions and did not seek to blame others. So no, taking credit for my successes and blaming others for my mistakes does not resemble me at all.

    The Myanmar and Ethiopia examples are absurd. I never claimed I could duplicate my success anywhere else. When I picked Melbourne for strong capital growth, I could have bought in Perth, Darwin, Hobart or Adelaide, but my assessment of those markets was that they would not experience strong capital growth. I could not have duplicated my success in any of those markets over the same period. But my research meant nothing and it was a pure fluke that I picked the one market out of 5 that performed well. :rolleyes:

    Of course, I could have made a lot more money in Sydney. I was a very poor decision on my part not to consider that market.
     
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  2. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Don’t take the bait! ;):rolleyes:
     
  3. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    You're not the only one buddy, I too have failed on some deals and I think most successful people would have 'failed' at some point with some ventures. But we know its normal. 'Failing' is just a part of the journey. What stops a lot of people from actually going after their dreams is precisely and ironically that, the fear of failing.

    To be honest I just see it as 1 step back, 3 steps forward and on and on until we get to where we want to be.

    "A person's character is not judged after they celebrate a victory but rather by what they do when their back is against the wall." Unknown source.
     
    Last edited: 20th Jul, 2016
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  4. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I agree. I am grateful for my failures because I learned so much from then. And my mistakes made me "luckier" afterwards, so that's a good thing ;)
     
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  5. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I like petty bickering threads like this. I get a lot out of them. For example, this thread has reminded me how lucky I am to have been raised by single income parents raising 5 kids, because it taught me the value of money. I am lucky that free education was abolished before I went to uni because HECS created my university placement. I was lucky to lose everything and be living in poverty by my early 30's because it gave me a drive to succeed. I am very lucky to have Australia's tax system because it helped me get out of poverty in around 10 years. What I don't accept is that I was lucky to buy in Melbourne when I did. That decision took the combined knowledge and experience of two people and 6 months of very tedious research followed by 2 weeks on the ground of looking at multiple properties every day. Apparently, skills, knowledge and experience played no part in this success and it was all down to pure luck :rolleyes:
     
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  6. Cactus

    Cactus Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like quite a journey. Well done and I wish you good luck into the future. ;)
     
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  7. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Quite the journey indeed. Threads like this make me reflect on just how lucky I have been.

    @Leo2413 will like this... Luck: when preparation meets opportunity.

    My last purchase in Perth was very lucky. My preparation was to deleverage by selling down an asset. My opportunity took 6 months of hard slog to find. The illusion is that opportunities are luck, being in the right place at the right time etc. The reality is that luck takes a lot of work! :D
     
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  8. Cactus

    Cactus Well-Known Member

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    Good Fortune (Luck) favours the Brave!
     
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  9. Skilled_Migrant

    Skilled_Migrant Well-Known Member

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    Selective anecdotes, but even these do no credit to preferential assessment. Memory distortions based in fear of randomness and self serving bias (sob/success story which pretends to acknowledge failures but rather enhances positive self-view ) are self evident.
    However due acknowledgement to the consistency of the literary style, contradiction between the beginning and end.

    Not belittling your experiences, but if that is your definition of misery you have no idea of what misfortune (and by extension fortune) actually is. Millions will happily swap their life for your misery and throw in a few organs and kids for free. And this element (naval gazing) is what is spoken about in the original article

    Our understanding of human cognition provides one important clue as to why we may see success as inevitable: the availability heuristic. Using this cognitive shortcut, we tend to estimate the likelihood of an event or outcome based on how readily we can recall similar instances. Successful careers, of course, result from many factors, including hard work, talent, and chance. Some of those factors recur often, making them easy to recall. But others happen sporadically and therefore get short shrift when we construct our life stories.

    Little wonder that when talented, hardworking people in developed countries strike it rich, they tend to ascribe their success to talent and hard work above all else. Most of them are vividly aware of how hard they’ve worked and how talented they are. They’ve been working hard and solving difficult problems every day for many years! In some abstract sense, they probably do know that they might not have performed as well in some other environment. Yet their day-to-day experience provides few reminders of how fortunate they were not to have been born in, say, war-torn Zimbabwe.

    • Take time to read the original link. It does not say it is binary construct between luck or hard work, but just says why is luck overlooked and the consequences of such an oversight. Your posts actually reinforce the behavioral traits from the research, and explains your stance on NG and CGT.
    • If the success was based on merit, it should be repeatable. Doctors, engineers, plumbers or bricklayers would be able to transfer their skills and associated success without relying on environmental factors. Not in your case, wherein the success is primarily environment dependent (rorting the tax system), hence the element of randomness or luck.
    • So looks like the combined efforts and experience of two people over 6 months were effortlessly triumphed by millions of others in Sydney and Melbourne who achieved similar or better results by doing (or for that matter knowing) exactly nothing. Was your research deficient or the home owners in Sydney and Melbourne lucky ?
    • Was the following hard work and research or bad luck ?
     
  10. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I acknowledge I made bad decisions and those decisions left me broke, homeless and unemployed. You interpret that as enhancing positive self-view. That is a very unusual interpretation of what I wrote. You don't like it because you want to believe that I had some kind of privileged upbringing and don't like hearing this is not the case. Actually, my "sob story" is absolutely true and by dismissing the truth in the way you have you demonstrate you lack empathy. All of this is a diversion anyway, your claim was that I would blame others. I have demonstrated that I have not blamed anyone for my decisions. Instead of conceding, you attack, attack, attack. I expect nothing more from you.

    That is rich coming from you and you are belittling my experiences. Being broke, homeless and unemployed is misfortune and your distorted world view will do nothing to change that. You are constantly whinging about the homelessness created by property investment in Australia but now you are arguing that homelessness is not misery and actually, I was really lucky. These constant contradictions are typical of your style of arguing and your distorted world view. Next time you whinge about the poor homeless, I will remind you of how fortunate they are.

    In 2007, I had a choice of investing in Perth or Melbourne. I took a lot of time to consider all the factors and made a conscious decision to invest in Melbourne, not Perth. Between then and when I sold, Perth performed poorly and Melbourne performed well. It is this decision making that I want to consider. What you are saying is that is was pure luck that I deliberately chose Melbourne over Perth. I am arguing there was some element of knowledge and skill and research that led me to invest in Melbourne. It was not chance, it was choice.

    Nice try at diversion. I didn't claim to be better than any other person. All I claimed was that I made an educated decision and it worked out better than the alternative. It don't believe it would be possible for you to admit there was any foresight into my decision. You would claim it was pure luck that I evaluated and area would increase in value and then it did.

    Perthguy said:
    As a Perth investment property owner, I am not happy that prices are falling. On paper, I have lost significant equity myself and I am not revelling in the fact that other investors have lost money. .

    Are they my only choices? The truth is neither. The question you should ask is why would I retain a property that was decreasing in value? The property in question is a development site that will provide cashflow positive housing. It would be silly to sell despite the drop in value. We knew prices were going to fall but made a decision to keep the property because it will provide a decent cashflow when the units are complete. It is ridiculous to assert that the property increased in value because of luck then decreased in value because of bad luck. It increased in value because of the market and decreased in value because of the market.

    But keep going. I actually don't mind you attacking me. You do it often enough and each time you do you reveal a bit more of your true character. This post, for example, was very revealing.
     
    Last edited: 21st Jul, 2016
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  11. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Unsurprisingly, you are yet again accusing me of lying. What is this contradiction you have read into my post? I see no such thing.
     
  12. Skilled_Migrant

    Skilled_Migrant Well-Known Member

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    @Perthguy do want to edit the post ? sections have been duplicated.
     
  13. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Thanks. I appreciate the heads up. I am having problems with my computer.

    EDIT: hopefully fixed. thanks again
     
  14. samiam

    samiam Well-Known Member

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  15. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    @Perthguy,

    "my mother used to say birds of a feather flock together. You run around with losers you will end up a loser. It's necessary, that you get the losers out of your life, if you want to live your dreams". Les Brown.

    Listen to good ol Les buddy .
     
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  16. JamesP

    JamesP Well-Known Member

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  17. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I know. I'm just amusing myself while I am on leave. Besides it's interesting to broaden my horizons with contrary views, even if they get a bit abusive at times ;)

    This is not my first rodeo :D

    Besides, while SM is whinging about how unfair the current system is, my latest reno is cracking along :p
     

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  18. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Nice one!

    But I see you got the manual measuring tape... gotta get the laser toy! its so much fun! :D
     
  19. ellejay

    ellejay Well-Known Member

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    That looks like some reno! Will keep you out of trouble for a while by the looks of things :)
     
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  20. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    It's a great project! I post on the reno thread when I get a chance but I have been busy helping my parents move. Anyway, those new stairs are replacing very narrow stairs that were underneath a 600mm opening into the main house. 600mm was dreadfully narrow and the opening has been widened to to 850mm and the stairs a bit wider than that.

    I am hoping to be really lucky this time by converting a 2x1 in a 4x2 to increase the value. Of course if the value increases it will be a complete fluke! ;)