VIC Which market for houses is not hot?

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by SuperOlaf, 23rd Mar, 2021.

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  1. SuperOlaf

    SuperOlaf Well-Known Member

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    Given synchronised growth in house prices across most city/regional markets, I was wondering if any of you are seeing market for detached houses anywhere in Victoria (suburb/ area/ town) that has not joined the party yet or really lagging compared to other areas.

    Apartment prices have not gone up anywhere near house prices, but this question is about detached houses. With such a long lag in market data, it would be great to hear from people who has their ears to the ground.

    This could be a brief conversation with everyone coming back with a short answer - 'none'!
     
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  2. Robbo80

    Robbo80 Well-Known Member

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    Simple. Boom is being driven by owner occupiers. Houses in areas that attract mainly investors will not keep up as being a landlord in low yielding Melbourne is becoming more and more undesirable.

    New rental reforms i.e. bond changes and the lack of support during covid by Dan and Scott may be the last straw for many landlords.
     
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  3. thunderstrike888

    thunderstrike888 Well-Known Member

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    Wont be true for long. Been on the phone to numerous brokers this week. Investor numbers are soaring again now.

    NO investor can ignore the capital growth that is currently being achieved anywhere. Its the main aim of the property game is capital growth. Its what will make you a millionaire and the huge growth will undoubtedly attract all investors back into the market.

    When you see price rises of $500k+ over reserve for premium top of the range houses and $100k+ above reserve for lower ranged houses well those are numbers NO investor will ignore including myself. Its going to get messy, real real messy when investor numbers accelerate and grow exponentially. Its just started wait until May/June when all the investors and their pre-approvals and finances are ready to go.

    The suburbs I'm watching although in Sydney and Brisbane the last 4-5 houses I was interested in all went to investors.
     
  4. Robbo80

    Robbo80 Well-Known Member

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    Yeap no doubt there are investors buying (developers, cashed up, rentvestors) but the areas where owner occupiers are primarily pushing prices up are clearly outperforming in the stats.

    But of course rising tide of lower rates is lifting all boats somewhat.

    Are you looking to jump in?
     
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  5. kaibo

    kaibo Well-Known Member

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    I would think with lack of immigration I read somewhere the new H+L estates out in Craigeburn etc. are not going so well pricewise. No drops but not much gain. Could someone on the ground confirm this?
     
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  6. thunderstrike888

    thunderstrike888 Well-Known Member

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    Yes I am and the suburbs I'm competing in are HEAVILY FHB territory. That is why I havent been successful yet because its all numbers to me. I have zero emotional attachment to any investment house I dont care to be honest - as long as the numbers work and I am confident in capital growth.

    Now, I see a house I like and I offer current market value that I think its worth (which is still over asking) however a FHB will pay way more than me because they love the property and are going to call it home. In saying that the last few sales other investors beat me. So its getting interesting indeed.
     
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  7. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    How bitter sweet must that be for you. Sucks that you lost to investors, great that you lost to investors; cause it means they're back.
     
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  8. SuperOlaf

    SuperOlaf Well-Known Member

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    Relatively speaking, suburbs around universities are not doing so well. For example, I saw Clayton (near Monash) is one of the worst performing suburbs in Melbourne over last 12 months to Feb 21. Though foreign students rely mostly on units for rental, it seems to be impacting sentiment for houses as well.
     
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  9. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    That's not a bad idea actually...
     
  10. Codie

    Codie Well-Known Member

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    Viewed a couple around where I live Moonee ponds, ascot vale, Essendon. Prices & demand don’t seem to be doing anything near what we are hearing eastern suburbs doing. Pretty good value compared to the rest of Melbourne and actually even closer to the city/airport. and easier to get around

    I think the west is a bargain
     
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  11. SuperOlaf

    SuperOlaf Well-Known Member

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    I think you meant north. I love Moonee Ponds - got everything at one place and close to the CBD.
     
  12. Westie

    Westie Well-Known Member

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    Wyndham Vale, Manor Lakes, Mambourin and thereabouts aren't hot. Sure, houses very close to the station/shopping center are probably snapped up quickly, but it's a struggle for other stock to get moving.
     
  13. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    Clayton (central) is still pretty expy though. Clayton South/Clarinda/Springy South is a bit cooler.

    The Y-man
     
  14. SuperOlaf

    SuperOlaf Well-Known Member

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    Agree. 2% Gross rental yield with 10%+ vacancy rate are not great for investors, unless you plan to develop.
     
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  15. TheMissingLink

    TheMissingLink Member

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  16. TheMissingLink

    TheMissingLink Member

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    Hi, I live in Ascot Vale and have been house hunting for several months around the Ascot Vale, Moonee Ponds, Essendon, etc. areas and prices are going up fast. All houses I have been interested in are selling well over the reserve. For instance, 36 Forrester street, Essendon was originally listed for $1,900,000 to $2,050,000. Then afew days before auction the guide changed to $2,000,000 to $2,200,000. I bidded $2.2m at the auction on Saturday but it eventually sold for $2,415,000. Sigh. Even mediocre ones want nearly $2m.
     
  17. thunderstrike888

    thunderstrike888 Well-Known Member

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    Who was doubting me about investors returning to the property game?

    Property Investors are back in the market | Property Insiders

    Investors flood back to market looking for a prestige home

    I called it several months ago because I for one was on the ground and making offers and I first hand could see the uptick in competition coming from investors and not only FHBs.

    There is not a single investor out there that can ignore the current capital growth that is happening and the record low vacancy rates in cities like Brisbane. Sydney house rentals are also very strong and I read units are also picking up now.

    Its going to be fun - as I said in another thread before watch June/July figures. Investors flocking back in and its going to be even more FOMO as it is today.
     
  18. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    I'm one of them, cause my serviceability is dead post-APRA. The question really is: how many of us are there? I don't know the answer to that.
     
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  19. thunderstrike888

    thunderstrike888 Well-Known Member

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    Well your not really ignoring the growth, your actually well aware of it. Its just that your hands are tied. There are many investors out there that still have serviceability. Especially some of the older guys that have serious cashflow and very very low LVRs. Why wouldn't they catch the gravy train?

    Of course they would and make an easy $200-$300k within 2 years doing absolutely nothing except holding.
     
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  20. MC1

    MC1 Well-Known Member

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    That wasn't a bad buy to be honest for that property.
    If it was a couple of streets over in Mar Lodge, it would have attracted another million on top of that
     
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