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Which direction do you think the Aussie dollar is heading this year and next?

Discussion in 'Other Asset Classes' started by Abooking, 14th Mar, 2016.

  1. Abooking

    Abooking Well-Known Member

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    Its anyones guess but what do you think is going to happen with the Aussie dollar this year and next?

    Late last year I was reading how many experts thought the dollar could dive into the 60's range. Last week I read one guy saying it could go back to parity with the usd.

    Attached is a list of the average aud/usd rate. Its interesting that from 2010 to 2014 the rate was high / near parity etc. Prior to 2010 for nearly 20 years the rate has hovered around 0.80.

    What are your thoughts on the future of the dollar for the next couple of years?
     

    Attached Files:

  2. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    It will go up, then down, then down some more, then up, then down
     
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  3. Blacky

    Blacky Well-Known Member

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    However, it may go down, then up, then up some more, then down and back up again.

    Its all very confusing.

    Check out the Australian Dollar thread. It has a lot of good info, some average info, and a whole lot of rhetoric.

    Blacky
     
  4. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    I dislike your post
     
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  5. Ace in the Hole

    Ace in the Hole Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Up & up.
     
  6. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    the rate was high from 2010-14 because of the mining boom, long gone now.

    I predict it will eventually hit around 65.
    RBA were aiming for 72 I think? I can not see it hitting 80 again anytime soon

    As OP said check out thread on Australian Dollar, been going for a while.
     
  7. Blacky

    Blacky Well-Known Member

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  8. barnes

    barnes Well-Known Member

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    It may hit 80 and even 86 (which is highly unlikely, but possible) after that it's going down at least to 0,625 - the 2008 low. A lot depends on rally of commodities which is happening right now. Until market sentiment changes AUD might follow oil and other commodities. I'm short, but I'm always short. :)
     
  9. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Barnes
    Surely it wont hit 80... RBA will need to reduce interest rate if Au$ starts rises to this level???
     
  10. barnes

    barnes Well-Known Member

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    This is the problem with currency markets, They don't always play by the rules of fundamentals or technicals and surely they are irrational, rally on AUD is a fresh example. RBA will have to lower rates if it reaches .80. But RBA is always behind the curve.
    Believe me markets can go a long way farther then we can imagine.
     
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  11. barnes

    barnes Well-Known Member

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    80 - here we come (short term). A high AUD is the last nail in the coffin of this economy.:( These are currency wars - and AUD, looks like, will be the next victim.
     
  12. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Have been reading stuff by Vern Gowdie, pretty much stating the same.

    Interesting times indeed, time to batten the helms, and reduce debt.
     
  13. barnes

    barnes Well-Known Member

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    We can see 80 late next week. I'm still bearish waiting for 65 late in the year. It will only take longer.
     
  14. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

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    I'm calling it ....parity this year. And it's because of that dude with the strange hairdo, Trumpet....yeah that's him.
     
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  15. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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  16. Blacky

    Blacky Well-Known Member

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    I think if it hits .80 I'm going to sell any Aud I hold.

    Aud at .80 seems highly irrational to me in the current market.

    If all else fails I will use the AUD to increase my USD asset holdings.

    Blacky
     
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  17. Abooking

    Abooking Well-Known Member

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    Im the same as you. I recently sold a big chunk of my oz shares and now waiting for the usd to hit 80 zone and will be buying some high growth techie stocks on nasdaq
     
  18. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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  19. wunderwhat

    wunderwhat Member

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    It's likely to hit 80 by the end of the year. If you're looking at monthly and weekly charts, there looks like a lot of PA which suggests a reversal
     
  20. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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