Where would you invest $250K - $350K?

well try to get it around 300-350K mark then. I think he is talking H&L rather than actual houses with huge blocks of land. I think all comes down to demand (look at heideberg West and St Albans). If they are still ppl buying and the land estates are being sold out (I mean pt cook grew like appox grew 100K in one year)

I'm not buying werribee but you reckon QLD would give better growth?

 

Stayed in Ipswich 6 months ago for work. The job we were looking at was in Bundamba in the business park/ warehouse estate. The tenant (large aus wide company) stated that the floods a few years back almost took down the whole company aus wide and that as soon as there lease was up they were being relocated. They said there were many others in the same position

Stayed near the police station and went to that new brewery which was good. Also tried the German beerhouse and we watched the local hoons revving their engines in brisbane st. Most cars completed multiple laps of the local circuit. Im not sure who they were showing off to because there was no one around.

I don't have disdain for Ipswich, I understand people want to live in certain places. Just because people want to live there doesn't mean its a perfect recipe for capital growth.
I like places that are geographically constrained. Somewhere near the bay/ocean or surrounded by national park/mountains or it can just be surrounded by other suburbs.

I didn't see any of those constraints there, that's why i don't think it would be my preferred option for long term gain. Sure it will float up as Brisbane does but I cant ever see it outperforming

 

Depends.....I guess vision of what the potential of what can happen to suburb is important...have you looked at the infrastructure which is coming?

Have you researched that?

Have you looked at the price of land in Werribee vs what is 30 klms out the otherside of Melbourne?

The other fact is how many cycles have you seem? Have you also bought enough properties to see the how things move?

I know people who bought in the middle of nowhere in Plumpton VIC...they got in for 165k....those same blocks are selling for 250k plus......house and land was 350k....now they are well over 500k.......

 

I think Werribee will have better growth than most places in QLD over the next 12 months but im looking forward more than 12 months.
property investing isn't like share trading. You cant simply say that the best gains will be here and then sell after 12 months. Well you could do that but you probably would also find yourself divorced. Qld has boomed in the past. Its had a long break. Its due to boom again.
On property chat people only talk about what is currently hot/booming. If you talk about a regional area that has been stagnant for a long time you get told to stick to the capital city's only.
Its easy to forget in a capital city boom time that the market did nothing there for years on end before the boom started. The growth numbers people talk about are far from linear.

 

Here you go Sash. Theres a good snapshot of why property is expensive in the east. Look at that national park. Not much space to build ......

 

And here's the snapshot of the western suburbs. Picture tells 1000 stories

 

You can still buy in Werribbe the mid/high300k range..either new or existing. And you believe we'll see a median of 500k in the not distant future. 100-150k equity is a descent gain. Especially on a mid/high 300's purchase. If this scenario still signals a 'no buy' for you. Where would you suggest a purchase with potentially better fundamentals and gains? I'm genuinely interested.

 

Sash you dont seem to understand the point im trying to make.
I understand you can get gains in outer suburbs, anyone can see that from the stats.
My point is that i think its risky buying in now to these outer suburbs as they have already seen some good gains.
Werribee and Plumpton arn't going to go to a million dollars anytime soon. Its supply and demand - look at the satelite images
Even if developers can't keep up with the demand at the moment and prices do increase rapidly the minute the heat goes out of the market it will give developers a chance to play catch up and the prices will decrease as the supply of new property relative to those waiting to purchase increases. This exact thing happened after melbournes last boom in the outer suburbs
But by then you will be out of that market

 

Connor most properties are now over 400k in werribee. Have a look at the sold prices not the list prices

purchase - 400
purchase costs - 20

equity gain 80k

Thats a good gain but whats the future potential upside above 500k? Im not sure there is much in the next few years.
As i said its all good if you are Sash and purchase 5 properties at a time and sell them whenever need be but if you are an average investor who is going to buy maybe 2 or 3 buy and hold properties then its not a good time in the cylce to buy.

 

The thing is what factors will make a boom occur? is it something that booms 200-300K or is it something you put in get 3-5% concrete growth. In QLD - is it population growth, jobs - there is always the simplistic example that it follows Sydney but seriously it is not. End of the day, worldwide examples will show that the cities that show continuous growth and the cities with job growths, population, new infrastructure. similar to new York (financial centre) and Detroit, similar to Jakarta and Bandung, Similar to London and Manchester and other capital cities. Of course, if they found a gold or oil mine in the centre of rural city (it is definitely will boom)

My friend has a property in wagga and struggled to even get a decent offer to offload. You go to the opens in Pt Cook (an open inspection) even less than 300sqm is going 470-500K and with 20-30 separate parties going in. Werribee some of the estates Land are sold out. I Was there when they didn't attract interest (i remember agents trying to give $500 Bunnings vouchers), hampers and people would just walk off. There are even people lining up overnight in torquoy last year for blocks of land.

that example of parks is a good analogy but what about other factors - schools, infrastructure, facilities, highways. Also new migrants (some with more capital than most) has basically pushed some suburbs in the east to be more expensive. There are houses in melb that are jumping from 500Kish to nearly 800kish in 6-8 months (now that is a boom). I mean it maybe 12 months but a jump like that is sufficient to compensate 5% growths for couple years in other suburbs. Also depends on your strategy - some may just chop and change their portfolio or follow Nathan birch earlier methods to accumulate as many IPs.

Well - most here on PC like to use stats. It's all really subjective - you can increase the time scale frame to 25 years and Melbourne and Sydney would like crap or you could take last 6 years and see amazing growth or just compare like suburbs 300K making 6% vs 600K making 4%. It is no different to some annual report on portrayal of the best stats to support the claim of whoever has an agenda.

Unless we have advanced planning of what is to occur in certain areas (even i would be keen to know the re-zoning plans etc in advance ) one can only make a calculated judgement or speculation of the probability of the areas on the biggest CG. For the OP the 250-350K there are limited options in Melbourne and likewise in Sydney.

i'm not buying in Werribee although if I had only that budget to work with i would. I just looked at this estate in werribee(saw some stuff that was 160kish) now the cheapest is only 199K

 

Could see it from this perspective - based on the migrant push out - Pt cook, Hoppers, WL all experienced some jumps (only one left is werribee). Pt Cook was a 300Kish suburb now some selling high 400-600K depending on size and house.



and same in the east basically nearly all the suburbs in the red are nearing or are million dollar suburbs (wasn't the case many years) .it started out in balywn and box hill. I remember houses being sold for 600K in doncaster east now are 1.2-1.4mil. Even Ringwood is rising in price)

 

I can see my PPOR in there.

 

OK different approaches for different folks...I am mostly a buy and hold investor.....

Here is my line of thinking....and this is where my growth is going to come from...and will share my thinking

2017-early 2019 - 8 properties in Werribee surrounds, Geelong, Melton South, Officer I reckon there is about 1 m in growth here. The reason I bought here was the amount of Indians/Asians now moving into Werribee....you are right the Southeast is built out and uaffordable thus why the VIC govt is putting a lot of infra in the West/NW/ and North
2017-2020 - 7 properties in Brissie Annerley/Moorooka, Moreton Bay - I reckon there is about 1.2m worth of growth there
2017-2020 - 4 properties in Adelaide's North and Northwest - I reckon there is about 400k in growth there
2017-late 2018 - 4 properties regional NSW Maitland, Wollongong, Central Coast - I reckon there is about a another 500k in growth theere

So about $3m in growth across these properties....I am not counting Sydney I believe it is done...and Perth may grow but have not added it here.

So the point is......diversification...across markets and preferably growth areas does pay dividends. Well thats my story for the moment....the numbers in dollar values for growth are not huge typically under 170k but multiple properties added up gives you huge numbers.

 

Nice land tax bills coming your way

 

As a tangent, at the lower end of that I would be looking at Perth units in Highgate or Terrace Road in east Perth.

2 bedders such as this were going for mid 300k's in 2014 and have dropped significantly. I imagine it would pull around 300/wk in rent even now. 1 bedders are going as low as $230k.
28/133 Lincoln Street Highgate WA 6003 - Unit for Sale #124299186 - realestate.com.au

Terrace Road has a few sites old sites left that will likely get developed in our lifetime. This corner lot in particular i really like. Decent size corner block and I personally think the existing structure has a nice heritage appeal.
16/114 Terrace Road Perth WA 6000 - Apartment for Sale #123412470 - realestate.com.au

 

Gosnells

 

Hi Sash,
What do you see Maitland/Cessnock/Kurri Kurri doing over next couple of years?

 

I think affordability and FHB grants will push things along there.

Newcastle is very unaffordable and people will look further out.

 

A wholesaler was telling me about a development near Perth Casino that he's currently selling to overseas investors at $6000 per square metre. Peanuts.

 

300-350 you can still pick up some good properties in Logan, pick the right suburb and the travel time to Brisbane CBD and down to the Gold Coast or even Ipswich can be pretty quick.