Precious Metals Where to Next for Gold?

Discussion in 'Other Asset Classes' started by Alex Straker, 17th Dec, 2017.

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  1. Pier1

    Pier1 Well-Known Member

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    Alex how come the stop you have is so tight?
    When I look at the chart that levels seems to be an area of support/ resistance.
     
  2. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    @Pier1 Depending on the context I rarely use a stop of more than 8.5 points when swing trading gold, most often it's around 4.5 points. Even when I am shooting for a major swing. How to place it is a very long topic but basically for me it mainly depends where the geometry line work and market profile volume nodes are on the chart and then I allow for a small amount of volatility (false break) of that line work.
     
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  3. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    Gold approaching next area of interest for possible short 1297/1304 then 1320/1324. Still hoping for the drop into 1222 or lower to get some longer term holds set up :)

    Note 1320/24 is the outer limit for possible short.

    Price is sitting at a harmonic line (blue dash-dot) now and there is another one above at 1320 (multiple lines cross in this area), either one could be the beginning of a leg down. Look for obvious signs of rejection.

    XAUUSD 29DEC17.png

    No advice
     
    Last edited: 30th Dec, 2017
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  4. Lemmy a fiver

    Lemmy a fiver Well-Known Member

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    'Some' of my Junior miners had a nice day yesterday,
    But many of them (& many of my Mid Caps) went nowhere despite the rise in the POG.
    Then the POG rose another $7.80 overnight yet the HUI didn't budge at all.
    Miners appear to me to have already sniffed out a pullback? They aren't currently leading this advance.
    Lets see.
     
  5. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    Yes its uncanny how often I see the miners act as a leading indicator of Gold itself :)
     
  6. Lemmy a fiver

    Lemmy a fiver Well-Known Member

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    I would rather see the Juniors leading the POG,
    When they don't the hair on the back of my neck starts sticking up.
    But that said, the EOY Gold Futures closed higher than I expected. So bullish overall imo.
    Any pullback could be quite minor, we'll find out next month.
     
  7. curiousinvestor

    curiousinvestor New Member

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    wow!!! i must go over your analysis and digest it. But i love how much thought seems to have gone into it. I myself have done a bit of an analysis by looking at charts. The trend seems to be STARTING up - it hasn't been declared a definite trend yet, but i would invest in it (if i wasn't tied up with other shares that seem to be even more profitable). I am finding that there are heaps of opportunities.. but the real challenge is when to sell.. not what to buy. AJM, AAJ, and TAW all seem to be very interesting at the moment. AAJ is just starting to go abruptly up... and of course later on it will peak and collapse.. but you should consider going for the ride and jumping off if it develops 2 peaks close together.. (even if the second peak is higher than the first).
     
  8. curiousinvestor

    curiousinvestor New Member

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    i love your observation re nov, dec, jan... let us know of any future valuable observations.
     
  9. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    Update - Gold still hovering around the 1322/1324 resistance zone after a couple of quick dips from this zone. This is a very strong and key resistance area and forms a line in the sand to help anticipate the next leg. I slightly favour short position from this area down to 1270's but keeping an open mind to possibility of this strong momentum to the upside continuing.

    If the end of Jan sees a monthly market close above 1335 most likely new bull run leg has begun and we probably won't see a return to low 1200's. Strategy will be a case of looking for a retracement pattern to get long from a good low risk entry point.

    However if Jan sees a weaker close below 1322/24 (so no monthly close above here, spike throughs are normal), and especially if we see the daily and weekly price action and reject that level then quite likely price will return to 1272 as a minimum. A violent rejection may precipitate a new down trend leg that takes out 1236.

    No advice
     
  10. Indifference

    Indifference Well-Known Member

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    By the end of the month (Jan) Gold should have risen even further than its rise this month thus far based off of historical trends for this time of year.

    I’d expect it to get to ~1350 or better....
     
  11. jprops

    jprops Well-Known Member

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    Gold still on the move up... 1363.Where to from here?
     
  12. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    Long term view showing couple of possibilities to look for. Not showing any nice clear wave sets on weekly chart so bit tough to get a solid forecast, but a few things of interest.

    Gold 26JAN18.png

    1. Beginning of a strong timing zone for reversal (right edge of red circles) has now been reached and price is close to forming an AB=CD pattern at the same time. This timing zone is a little wider than previous ones and lasts until around 9/2. Top of this pattern projects to 1389/90 area. Implies there is some legs left in this impulse move higher. Price is likely to react to the median line (pitchfork) on completing this pattern and either reverse or accelerate. More likely to reverse IMO for a reasonable leg down however if price makes a weekly close strongly above the median line on an impulsive move higher the implication is for much higher prices to come.

    2. Other possibility is price has just formed a double top with failure to reach the blue median line and 1366 top holds, this would imply a sharper and possibly deeper retracement.

    No advice
     
    Last edited: 27th Jan, 2018
  13. MoneyMan

    MoneyMan Well-Known Member

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    What books did you read Alex for these indicators? Or I guess the new thing is to YouTube everything :)

    Edit, can pm me if preferred
     
  14. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    @MoneyMan....Hey John! Nice to see you around the darker regions of PC ;)

    Mate you won't find much useful info online about the methods I use. Gann/Elliott/Andrews Market Geometry cannot be learned properly from a book (IMO) and tends to be taught through personal mentorship and a lot of the truth of how Gann analysis works is kept hidden from public eyes. The reading list I would recommend is a very long one. Will email you a little something as a starting point.
     
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  15. Lemmy a fiver

    Lemmy a fiver Well-Known Member

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    CCI indicator on Gold is falling,
    But its nowhere near a signal yet that Gold is ready to rally anywhere beyond a small pop & drop (like today).
    Gold will probably need to drop back to at least a minimum of the high 1200's to reset this indicator to -100 (possibly even sub 1250).
    More concerning for me is the GSR is flashing warnings also,
    My best guess is it is warning the volatility we have recently seen is not yet over for the general Stock Market & the Dow is going to drop further yet.
    I think due to liquidity, Gold may well be sold off if this occurs.
    If this happens? Spot price of Physical Gold will probably hold up better than most of the Mining Stocks.
    But we will have to see if my interpretation of the signals is correct?
     
    Last edited: 12th Feb, 2018
  16. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    @Lemmy a fiver I like your thinking. Technically a drop under 1300 again is highly likely. I am doing some more work ATM on finding a good entry, nothing spectacular to report yet :)
     
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  17. Lemmy a fiver

    Lemmy a fiver Well-Known Member

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    Alex, it was from market historian Bob Hoye that I first learnt about the CCI indicator a long while back now.
    Interestingly, he dragged it out in his latest Gold Chart pdf he shared this past week.
    I will always tune in if he is a featured guest occasionally on finance podcasts.
    Bob is an easy guy to interview, all they need to do is ask him one question & he will do all the talking thereafter for the next 30 minutes!!:)
     
  18. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    Gold about to complete a weak long term growth series and reach the right edge of the 5th phase circle. If it takes effect Gold could quickly turn and make a strong impulsive move down in to 1297/1300 area. This is where I am interested in taking a slightly stronger than normal long position given equity market conditions. Limit of upside appears to be 1375/78 however it completed a nice bearish harmonic pattern (not shown - it's on a smaller time frame) just recently at 1355 (Spot Gold pricing) / 1359 (Gold Futures contract pricing) and that may have been the last nail...

    GOLD 15FEB18.png

    No Advice
     
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  19. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    Gold Update to 15 Feb 2018 post

    So far the lower time frame pattern worked at 1355 (spot gold pricing) and market is on the way down as expected with the red timing line given (right edge of circle) marking the high. We did see a spike through 1355 but the daily close never exceeded it, highest daily close was 1354.14. On the weekly chart shown below highest close was 1349.55. High probability we will see 1297/1300 now and this for me a very strong area of interest for a possible major leg higher. Very nice AB=CD harmonic pattern exists at 1302.7 but often you will see a little spike through, so again best to go by daily closes.

    Gold 22FEB18.png

    No advice
     
  20. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    Time of this post is 7.49pm DST in Australia (6.49pm in QLD)

    Gold is highly likely about to resume a very long uptrend off this 1214 low.

    upload_2018-10-31_18-51-11.png

    No Advice
     

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