Where to buy? Perth Vs Adelaide Vs Brisbane

Where would you buy if you don't have any IP and you can only buy one IP in one of the three cities in the next 10 years? Please provide the reasons for your choice. Please do not consider the IP's proximity to your home when you make the choice.

 

Melbourne if you are investing for long term capital growth

 

The ABC printed an article yesterday that included Financial Stress.

Perth : 39.20%
Adelaide : 41.30%
Brisbane : 37.60 %

Brisbane looks the less stressed, and hence fewer forced sales in the years to come.

 

When I was Australia, I enjoyed a road trip from Melbourne to Cairns through Canberra, Sydney, GC, Brisbane, SC, Noosa, Townsville. When I tried driving the other way, to the west, I headed back right away after reaching Barossa Valley and Adelaide. The Feng Shui is just not there for living lol

I’d stick with Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. Even though Perth has good factors for growth now.

 

Adelaides running pretty hot.Risk vesus reward.

 

Perth is pretty much at the bottom of the cycle, give or take. All lead indicators for growth are there - higher number of sales, lowering DOM, reducing stock on market, and rising rents (making owning cheaper than renting in many cases).

With the WA economy firing, I think it’s going to be a good couple of years for Perth.

- Andrew

 

Sydney. Don’t believe in insights, believe in the trend over the last few decades.

 

Which suburbs in Sydney and Melbourne have the best Feng Shui, just curious? Burwood in Sydney and Balwyn in Melbourne?

 

In the capital growth race of the last 40 years. the leading city has changed many times. Each have their booms and busts. There's nothing in historical data to indicate any 1 city will outperform another over the long-term future.

Digital Finance Analytics (ABC's source of mortgage stress data) have been predicting property Armageddon for a long time now. The data changes from year to year, but the forecast is always big double-digit negative. You'd expect mortgage stress to have some impact on cap growth. Perhaps we need radically different figures than those quoted.

The average demand to supply ratio for the greater metropolitan area of Perth for the month ending October 2020 was 48 out of 100. This is a bit below "balanced". There are only 2 suburbs with a DSR+ for houses of 70.

Brisbane's average DSR+ was 54 and Adelaide's 58. They each have dozens of suburbs in the 70+ range. That's where I would put my money: Adelaide (or Brisbane).

I haven't analysed the impact of Feng Shui on capital growth.

 

Pretty much East and Southeast Melbourne
Water is great, down from Dandy.

 

I do wonder if the run has finished. In Moana where I am, property has surged 20 percent in the past few months as interstate buyers flock in to snap up properties.

But I'm now seeing the resurgence of the For Lease sign, a sign not seen since the 2008 GFC:



A lot of properties are now vacant. Obviously property managers can't fill them, so the signs go up as they become vacant. Maybe a case of too many properties investors and no renters.

 

Perth boom over? [WA]

If it was overvalued then must be undervalued now?

Most/some of the properties under "mortgage stress" are often not property worth buying ie was new built stock in new subdivision. In stress because people gambled on capital gains with interest only loans. Not sure how them selling cheap would effect quality properties

 

Might be the case for the far south but inner city suburbs have vacancy rates of less than 1%

 

I agree. Also, the vacancy rate is below 1% now. It is time for growth.

 

Maybe Feng Shui has been priced in already. Properties closer to the coastline are more expensive.

 

Interesting analysis. Thanks for sharing.

 

Three Perth Suburbs The Next To Join WA's Million-Dollar Club

 

Jeremy, your prediction of the markets for 2021 was spot on. Which city would you pick now? The houses in both Brisbane and Adelaide have gone up 30%+ while Perth went up 15%+ this year.

 

This has already happened

 

I am super bullish on Perth market

Brissy clearly star performer today but I think Perth is now time to jump in, most suburbs are risinng

Anyone interested in this market and knows little about what is driving this market, read threads on Rockingham and Perth. Lots of info here.