VIC Where is the Capital Growth right now in Melbourne?

Hey no, thank you @Leo2413. Completely different ball game when you're looking at developing, I hear you. I'm the same, quality land, as much of it as you can get as close to the CBD as possible Looking forward to seeing more on what your thoughts are of the other unit markets.

 

Pretty much

 

Jake.....no offence....I have issues with people who take a very commercial angle...no issues with making money..but taking a position which proved otherwise.

Do share some examples of where you or your clients have made money..that is what credibility is about...perhaps that would be a start.....

 

Yep correct...because the cost to build and get through conucils is quite prohibitive there.....

 

Detached house around 1 k.m. walk away from a station on a good train line (not Alamein line)

 

Units no way. With my little over 3 years exposure to aussie markets.

However, your stats lack the actual growth areas because it will take at least 3 to 5 more years for the stats to be visible.

The last purchase for a friend was 448 sq mt land and and 22 sq house lock in for 380k last month.

The current value for similar product is 450k to 480k. Rental is 430 to 450 per week.
It is difficult to source a decent buy there now. Because opportunities are getting exhausted, you do keep moving out (i think that is against your strategy). But immediate equity with positive rental yield is still a head turner. I also think this is the max a person can move out so no further opportunities in vic unless you get a cracking deal.

Longer term, these properties will do good imho. And units start getting build when land values move up. 500k should be a number in all growth (outer burbs) where people would start looking for options. Thats when inner city or middle ring unit demand would grow.
I think may be another year or so and you would see a bit of demand for inner city and middle ring units cos people will be priced out of the outer ring suburbs as well.

 

Longer term... like 20 years long term after the market has crashed and picked back up again. We've been living in a system that's turned hillbillies into millionaires simply because they bought a crapshack out in the bush 40 years ago.

Real estate is a pyramid scheme. You make money by getting in at the bottom and off at the top. The only bad thing is many people who got in at the top just wanted a place to live but they'll be forced to go down with ship along with all the investors who think prices just keep going up and up and up until you're paying 10 million dollars for studio apartment in the ghetto. Won't happen. (except maybe in Hong Kong, but when china collapses it'll trigger WW3 and property values won't matter much at that point).

 

And the relevance to post?

 

It's all Berwick baby! The Berwick views estate in Beaconsfield is currrently a similar price range to most of the jigsaw pieces in Pakenham.

This won't last long! it's time to Berwick like you've never Berwicked before!

 

It was in relation to your claim that outer suburbs still have some growth left and will make good long term investments. Same thing with units.

In Perth, I bought a house in outer burbs in 2010, right when the market peaked and started declining. In 2014 I got offered 450k. In 2015 I was told the market has corrected and is only worth 380k. I accepted an offer of 385 and bought in Melbourne. Maybe if I kept it until 2025 I'll see capital gains on it once again.

in my opinion, houses at the low end of market still making gains after the peak is the bull trap part of the cycle. Once that phase passes it's all downhill from there.

 

Then by your definition pretty much all investing is a pyramid scheme. I think your bad experience with your Perth property has seriously clouded your investment judgement imo.

 

just stick to RGZ

 

reminds me of a suburb with an L in it.

 

it is more flow on effect and lots of new ppl. my property which just settled and was put up for rent prior has ppl applying from Townsville, Adelaide and perth (40 applications). There are ppl lining up to buy lots for H&L and also taking lotteries to get a pick nowadays compare this to 3-4 years go it was dead.

The peak is just what the median can give. there are suburbs that were booming (in 2015) and suburbs that were flat. (example, Doncaster vs pt cook), Doncaster moving like crazy, pt cook flat as a pancake being smacked in the pan. then in 2017 point cook took off later in the year (going crazy). and the same for the Heidelberg west, maidstones, etc (there are many suburbs in the north, west and east that mirror this approach.) not everything booms at the same time. Just before Dec 2017 there was a suburb low end doing the same thing similar to pt cook

Melbourne market has many mini markets it just depends how which suburbs you think will do it this year

 

Aptly worded.

 

Hey @Jake Milne, I hope you have been doing well.

Just want to clarify, when you said Units, do you mean:

a) Unit as in Townhouses or Villas (terms used in Sydney) in strata complex?

Or

b) Unit as in Apartments in multi-storey strata title?

I learnt the different terminologies when I was buying IPs in Melbourne in the past.

If you meant the first definition, I agree with you, especially close to city. People who cannot afford houses will by these instead.

 

Yes, what you are saying is right. However, I still strongly believe in what I have written .

Yes, the markets turn in the other direction. But with what sort of decline?

With the current population and growth trend in Melbourne, I still see a year's growth in outer burbs and do not see a decline of more than 15-20%. It is not Perth you see.

With the current purchases or previous purchases in last 2.5 years. I have got minimum 30% equity with time. And With time, the numbers stop working so you move a bit further out for your next purchase.
I bought 50 kms, 75 kms, 23 kms and 37 kms from cbd in that specific order starting 2015 to now. The last purchases were in jan to march 2017.

Each one of them.has given 60-70k value in land and 100k approx in total. So, I believe that I am prepared. Were you?

With the current purchases, the motive is to buy, build and sell. A decent profit of 20% can be speculated now. A hold is also a possibility and not a problem as I am constantly highlighting to friends who buy these properties. It has become difficult to source property there. But I can relate to what you are saying. I also assume VIC and WA are different beasts.

I also follow people who are doing the similar things constantly to see gow they react to situation. No one can guide you better thsn people who have achieved what you are trying to achieve.

Time will definitely test the patience of all. We all are in to learn and gain.

 

Agree lots try to draw parallels to Perth which is the not the same. Similar to ppl saying Brisbane booms after Sydney based on historical trends

Both my latest tenants are medical doctors combined earnings of more than 300k and have made my property the highest rental on whe street and in the area. I called up their employer to do some checks and basically spoke to them
Where they have concurred there is so much demand for medical professionals that they got job within days which I have said in the past —> population growth —>demand of services —> do ppl not fall sick? Do ppl Need more food, medicines, childcare, cleaners etc it is not all just construction jobs as some like to allude here.

University wise and higher education melbourne smashes perth without even trying which is whole diff market altogether

There are ppl camping out to buy home and land packages here in Melb and lotteries to which they constantly get sold out

 

Healthcare is Australia's second biggest industry after real estate. I don't know if that is good or not. America was retail prior to the gfc and is now healthcare also

 

I have never gotten an answer as to what's causing the population growth. I always assumed it was the construction boom which means once the property market stalls and construction stops populations will move out of Melbourne.

Isnt that why wages have stagnated, because we've become entirely reliant on property growth to drive our economy?