Where is all the stock???

My partner and I are ready to purchase. But there's just not that many listings coming online.

We are looking in 4-5 suburbs in Western Sydney around 30kms out from the CBD. New listings seem very slow to come online.

I know that no one has a crystal ball - but does anyone have any predictions of when more stock will come online for sale?

 

Same problem here. I assume people are waiting for the new year, then once they get there they will think; why not wait a few more months since the lending rules might get relaxed in March. So Q2 next year is my guess.

 

Guess I'll just stay ready. Waiting for the one

Do you think much will happen in terms of price between now and then?

 

Yup, it'll go up. Just have to keep saving.

 

I never anticipated stock to retrace this hard. We just bought, stock is already down 15-20 % in our suburb since August, and we’re in Spring, a time typically when people sell.

In my view, prices seem to stay up based upon the fact property that is selling is good and thus sells for high and dog property just isn’t selling. Eventually, if the dogs start selling at decent discounts it will bring the price averages down. I won’t be surprised if this leads to headline falls in prices , but good property still being priced high. This is such a weird time, even within hot suburbs, there’s hot and cold property.

It seems it’s all to do with how good the property is and how ready to go it is. I won’t be surprised if this is normal for a while, I recall seeing something about peak turnover occurring in 2015 and has been downtrending since.

 

maybe covid has had more headlines than the historically low interest rates??

 

Covid turned the predictable into the unpredictable....it's economic effects will be case studies for decades to come.

 

Low Volumes
Pent up Demand
Record low rates
Recession over
Increased borrowing capacity

Strap yourselves in.

 

The effects from COVID are easy to predict, if there were no counter measures.

the reality is the market being so unusual now is based on the counter measures taken by policy makers.

as it relates to property, the biggest two are:

1. Few people are forced to sell property, due to jobkeeper/seeker as well as repayment holidays. This has prevented a domino effect from the x% of the population significantly affected being forced to sell.

2. Money is easier to borrow due to the regulations around lending being relaxed noticeably. This has added fuel on the demand side of the supply/demand dynamic.

There was a relevant lesson my father taught me when I was super young, still a teen. He said “someone will only sell a property if they have to”, he elaborated that it is usually either a deceased estate, or money is needed, or the house will be sold to purchase an alternative one.

 

I suppose it depends on which markets you're looking at, I've been monitoring inner-mid ring Melbourne in the West, North-West and North and have seen listings pick up to be higher than this time last year:

 

This is spot on. The good stuff is selling very well but the crap stock isn’t selling at all.

There is less and less stock on the market each week where we’re actively looking.

 

I think there is also probably something I would term 'the home effect' that has become more pronounced during Covid. People have been moving interstate less, moving around the state less, and even their suburb less and that itchy foot we all seem to have as Australians has probably been less pronounced. People have fallen in loves with the homes they have again. Happy to stay put for a while until things settle down and are less likely to move.

I'm no demographer, but I think until we see things start to flow in terms of interstate migration (with ongoing certainty) and international emigration and immigration, certainty in markets and jobs, stock levels could remain low. The confidence that a vaccine will bring should override the end of JobKeeper IMO.

- Andrew