NSW Where in Sydney will outperform from 2016-2020?

Too bad for all the staff that moved out west 5-6 years ago when their jobs moved to Olympic Park.

 

Early dates, but posting for my records.

Will revisit now and then.

 

Wow great predictions!

 

In a downturn, that's pretty much how Sydney would perform. Except I think Northern Beaches is its own market that's a bit removed from the rest of Sydney and not typically that strong. Maybe its just been weak for too long. And secondy its summer and beaches are popular in summer (until people realise how crappy transport is.... very long bus rides to the city!)

Sorry.... I don't mean to bag it out.... just telling you what I think... if a rail or light rail line went into the area, I can see it really take off.

 

If the top end of town is going well , the " weekenders " at palm beach / whale beach and Pittwater will do well.

Northern beaches , lower will stay strong , but watch Dee Why for over supply . Even though we've done very well in Mosman ( timing .... ) the market overall has underperformed some other areas , so lower north shore , North Sydney .. Mosman will hold own and do ok .

Eastern suburbs always does well and inner west will hold it's own .

Disagree with steve re Marrickville , , it's not as nice as some surrounding areas, is under the flight path . It has done well in the last few years because it was under valued , but I don't expect it to outperform other inner city areas

Don't expect outer areas to do well .

Cliff

 

@Gockie , are you saying that 75%+ for Sydney in a downturn is regular? I would expect downturn clearance rates to be 65% or under. Maybe we have different 'downturn' definitions? I mean, after September to December low clearance numbers (downturn sort of), Sydney came back nicely in Feb, so downturn (low clearance, prices dropping by a couple of %) may be delayed or lesser to what many anticipated?

 

I should say, when Sydney is very strong, you see the West and South West, Canterbury Bankstown doing as well as broader eastern Sydney.
When it gets weak, you see differences between the areas as per Steven's chart except give it a few months (assuming a weaker market in general) and the spread (gap in clearance rates) between the areas should become larger (imo only).

I agree with See Change's comments.
Note I am doubtful the upper Northern Beaches will be strong in a downturn, which is where I think we will head now.
And yes, Marrickville is under a flight path. So is Tempe and St Peters. It's not people's first choice of location if the noise affects them.

On the other hand, I can see Newtown doing well. Ditto Redfern, Surry Hills etc.

 

I will only comment on the St George and inner west areas as they are my local areas. I think the bayside suburbs in St George, from Brighton Le Sands to Dolls Point are somewhat under-valued compared to other parts of Sydney and thus might fair better than other areas in the coming years.
I think that Marrickville, St Peters and Tempe went so gangbusters that now they make Newtown and Enmore seem like good value in comparison. Even though the block sizes are far smaller in the latter, they are well-located to thr city and uni and are far more gentrified and do not suffer from the same level of plane noise or as much industrial use.
The West Connex is likely to make St Peters less desirable with tunnel outlet, pollution and influx of traffic from the west.

 

Love all the input. Thanks for sharing, folks.

One note on Marrickville in particular, yep, "it" is under the flight path but have a look at the geographical distance the suburb spans. The north end (still predominantly industrial/commercial with lots of terraces and fewer free standing homes) cops the planes--to the point where you can't continue a conversation while one is passing overhead. South towards the Dulwich Hill/Earlwood end (approaching the Cooks River and Golf Course, and right by the Light Rail), not an issue.

Big place.

 

yes this sounds logical. However..in relation to price growth, its making the assumption that there is a strong positive correlation between auction clearance rates and performance...which is logical and probably correct ignoring other factors that contribute to performance or assuming those other factors are baked into the clearance rate...

 

Surprised sydneysiders are perturbed by being under a flight path..in brisbane , data has shown that, despite having more affordable choices thsn sydney, the flighr path suburbs have done well and dont really hear of complaints...and is not seen as a reason to avoid those suburbs despite having the choices in the market to do so.
I guess we really do breed em tough north of the border

 

In Brisbane, is it noisy to the extent you can't have a conversation or hear the tv?
While Sydney's realestate is expensive, people have chosen to live under the flight path due to having no other better affordable option near the city. So people do, but it's not anybody's first choice.

 

There's quite a significant group who don't want rail to northern beaches . at the moment , the westies go to Cronulla , Bondi or occasionally Manly via Ferry . At the moment the main group of outsiders who go to the northern beaches are the northshorites and they're almost acceptable . If fact a lot downsize to the northern beaches when the kids finish school ,

The two phrases the locals use to decribe the Northern beaches and " gods own Country " and " the insular peninsula "

Cliff

 

Tell me about it. I hardly go to the beach, i'm on the North side and for me, driving (but moreover the parking) is just horrendous on a nice day. Though a Manly ferry ride is nice, it just adds so much more additional time and effort.
When we were looking for a PPOR in 2007/8 we were also looking to buy in Oatley. It would have had the benefit of trains to beaches with little fuss. But it loses some of the other locational benefits of where we eventually bought. Beach is nice to have - but it's not as important as transport to work!

 

Hey Gockie what do you consider the upper northern beaches?

Cromer, beacon hill and Narraweena are still recording very strong sales. Interested in your logic behind this.

 

As Steven said, Marrickville is the biggest suburb in the inner west. The good thing about planes in Marrickville is that because it is close to the airport, the planes are low when landing and the spread of noise is very limited. It's the properties under the landing path that cop the noise. I live in the southern bit of Marrickville and although I can see them coming over the northern part of Marrickville (where the poor people live), I can't here them at all. Not a whisper. My two Marrickville IPs get no landing noise at all, either. When planes take-off, they are sent in all directions and we get the occasional one overhead.
Hard to know what prices will do in Marrickville. The area is still changing at a nutty pace - I just heard about another micro brewery that has opened up. You might have to reacquaint yourself with Marrickville, Cliff. It's the Marrickville Open Studio Trail this weekend and 53 studio spaces including our warehouse will be open for a stickybeak. Come over and we'll go for a walk - I'll lend you a gun.

 

I reckon if you can't get onto Warringah Rd quickly, you are too far.
At least I know the trip from Killarney Heights to Chatswood can be quick... just have to have flowing traffic.

 

Ive heard from friemds of mine staying over flight patg that the tv reception goes nuts whenever a plane goes overhead. ..and that kinda stuff has done nuthin to dampen house prices in that area.

 

Clearance rates from 7th May 2011. Not a particularly hot time. (I'll call it a "warm" market). I think those numbers would be a bit different this time around, but how different is the question. Note this is only a snapshot of a singular week (afaik), if anybody has these stats of a longer time frame, feel free to share.

Prices are falling – some suburbs still hot

 

As far as I know, God's country and the insular peninsula refer to the Shire (Cronulla). I think people on the Northern Beaches tend to think they are a bit more cosmopolitan than shire-folk.