NSW Where in Sydney will outperform from 2016-2020?

Anyways... on topic. I have an apartment in Darlington Sydney and dislike I can never get any stats on the performance of units in the suburb. So I end up using the stats from Redfern and Chippendale as the best approximation. But all the apartment product in the area is very different... #smallsuburbproblems....

 

Anyone catch what Louis Christopher had to say?

 

I agree with @sanj . The period mentioned will be about targeting areas where there will be continued increase, nothing fantastic but just not going backwards or sitting flat. So the blue chip areas. I believe the CBD ish areas and eastern suburbs hold their own rather than drops that "out west "will experience. But when rents start increasing (pre next boom) the yields will improve and will make it more appealing.
I guess it's bargain hunting time and finding something that will steadily grow rather than stagnate
Steadily grow I would guesstimate over the 4 years growth of 10-20%

 

Hell will freeze over before this happens.

The Syd market has changed, its clear that supply has increased. Property boom/bust cycles are all about supply vs demand. Greater increase in stock and less buyers means the market will fall back. If stock increases then we will see a full blow bust cycle.

Consider 40% were investors buying in this market, they have just been cut at the knees thanks to APRA. Booms don't last forever, Syd boom cycle started in 2012, if it went till 2020, that would be an 8 years property boom, never ever happened ever. Longest boom cycle I have ever witnessed was 6 years in Perth only because the mining boom was driving this market. So what is going to continue to drive the Syd market?????

MTR

 

but i thought it was claimed by some that investors had pretty much no impact on prices? if so the impact on investors by APRA changes should be irrelevant to prices, although i suspect you and i both dont agree with that

 

In Sydney, the places that people want to live and are tightly held will hardly be affected in a downturn. The places with lots of high mortgages (relative to incomes) and places that are more entry level first home buyer markets and investor driven... yeah... I believe they won't do so well.
It always come down to supply and demand.

 

40% OMG that is huge

Apparently 70% in Logan, OMG

In Perth last rise, started with FHB 30%, when they left the market, the market started going sideways.
Any shift/exit from market will effect markets IMO, and we have seen this?

 

I only heard about 5-10mins over a whinging toddler but his Sydney prediction was much the same as Lomas. There has only been 20 something percent growth in the more affluent areas compared with over 50pc in the western regions so it makes sense that there is still some growth there. Both speakers also mentioned Hobart.

 

Sorry I don't see any to buck the trend with increases. The trend bucking will only be properties holding their value in the area's you've mentioned. We won't see any upswing in prices from todays figures until around 2023ish.

 

outperform
aʊtpəˈfɔːm/
verb

1. perform better than.

As mentioned in my original post, I stopped buying in Sydney early 2014. I'm just asking which areas will perform better than the overall Sydney market, during the inevitable lull/pull back.

@MTR, not "boom" just move along better than the wider Sydney market.

Not by any significant margin but certainly, I believe there will be suburbs that buck the trend.

Quite a few. Jump on one day and see. It's opened up whole new parts of Sydney for people both commuting to work or getting around for other reasons. I have spoken to folks who moved to Dulwich Hill because the light rail takes them to their workplace now. There are a handful of new apartment developments straddling the Light Rail/Train Station as a result.

Sounds like you don't use transport that much. After 4 return trips on any mode of Opal transport, ALL travel with Opal is free for the remainder of the week

 

Yes, but your train trip followed by bus or light rail or ferry connection is seen as one trip, unless there's more than one hour in between. So you pay for the train, then you pay ffo the light rail, but still this is one trip only

 

But isnt it when you change from one mode of transport to another it still counts as one journey, not 2? And after the 8th journey, travel is free? Don't you need an hour between the travels to count them separately?
Otherwise everybody wouldn't care about the double payments and would qualify after 2 days of travel, which I know isn't the norm.

Edit: yep. What @meme plecko said.

 

Actually i do. 5 days a week. Also well aware of how to minimise the cost of the opal card too by doing evening runs on a Monday night. Just can't be bothered given the savings aren't substantial.

As per @meme plecko explanation, changing from one mode of transport to another still counts as one trip if its within the hour, however you are charged twice. Hence why i can't imagine many people doing the tram to bus / tram to train / bus to train where there is a single mode available.

The areas the tram services are established areas to begin with, there are plenty of buses that run around these areas.

I jumped on the tram before, its super slow. I had an exam out at Wentworth Park, it was quicker to walk from the Central than taking the tram from Central.

That said I haven't caught the tram in a while, i haven't found a need to, so i could be wrong about patronage, however on the mornings/afternoons (twice a week) i do catch the train on the Bankstown line, i look over at the tram line and its a ghost town.

 

Just went past dulwich hill on the train, looked over to tram line... Total of 4 people.

 

I see every smart investors stopped buying in sydney since late 2013- early2014. But there are these suburbs that will resist from downfalls such as the suburb that have lightrails as support. Prices will stagnant or rise bit by bit, however smart investor will not purchase those suburbs until when?... Until price drop? But what if it never will drop...

 

What does having a light rail have to do with price falling / not falling?

 

Higher desirability...

 

Yep....the amateurs got in about 3-6 months ago...they are about to feel a world of hurt if they bought in Syndey....

Awkie...wrong time in the cycle no such thing as tightly held suburbs even there people will need to adjust prices to sell...

Yep...watch Logan after the boom stops...will be another problem suburb....

I own in Dulwich Hill...can't see that area move much now..I bought my 1 bedroom for 90k so could care less...the Light rail price rise has already been factored in. If anything units might even go backwards. There is quite a bit of supply which is appearing.

 

I'm not saying buy in Sydney... no way.

I'm just saying I dont think we'll see drops that should cause people to panic sell, as long as it's well located within Sydney.

And someone panic sells... well... their loss. They'll learn a lesson when they can't buy into Sydney again.

 

Well that is what they are saying about the Lower North shore...just found a T/H (3x2x2) with high 9s expectations...6 months ago it would have sold like lightening for 1.2-1.3m.