Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community

Where do you think Logan is on the property clock?

Discussion in 'The Buying & Selling Process' started by eng, 22nd Feb, 2016.

  1. eng

    eng Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    20th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    114
    Location:
    Macarthur, NSW
    Agents are now calling me regularly, 3-4 times last week alone to see if I want to sell my property. I don't see any decent 3 bedrooms under $300k which indicates lots of interests and a rising market. Dual living properties are the first to go, if ever they make it to realestate.com.au.

    Good times ahead for the early birds :D

    Edit: I think it's around 10 o'clock, what are your thoughts?
    Are you still buying?
     
    Last edited: 22nd Feb, 2016
  2. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    3,501
    Location:
    Sydney
    Your property/ies in Logan?
     
  3. eng

    eng Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    20th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    114
    Location:
    Macarthur, NSW
    Yes
     
    larrylarry likes this.
  4. Bran

    Bran Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    20th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    3,213
    Location:
    At work
    10:31
     
    Leo2413, Matthew Robinson and eng like this.
  5. Tyler Durden

    Tyler Durden Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jan, 2016
    Posts:
    281
    Location:
    Australia
    11:11 (It's always this time when I glance at a clock:p)
     
    Leo2413, JDP1 and eng like this.
  6. Steven Ryan

    Steven Ryan Mortgage Broker Business Plus Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,458
    Location:
    Sydney & Gold Coast
    Not sure. Someone stole my clock.
     
    chindonly, EN710 and eng like this.
  7. bob shovel

    bob shovel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    5,378
    Location:
    Somewhere in the land of Oz
    Beer o'clock
     
    Innerwest, Leo2413, MJS1034 and 2 others like this.
  8. Coota9

    Coota9 Well-Known Member Premium Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    970
    Location:
    Melbourne
    For all metal heads..
    2 minutes to midnight
     
  9. Jake Milne

    Jake Milne #1 Buyers Agent, Vic. Business Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    159
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Let me put it this way; if a "hot spot" is being hyped in the media it's no longer a hot spot.
    Suburb spotlight: Logan investor activity surges
    13 suburbs to take off in 2015

    Logan has had 11.13% growth over the last 12 months according to YIP. Compared to the areas average of 5.40%.

    I don't know the area on the ground so it's hard for me to say accurately however I'd suggest that it's well and truly into it's upswing/ boom phase.
     
    D.K, EN710, TMNT and 2 others like this.
  10. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    3,501
    Location:
    Sydney
    Time to extract equity and buy more.
     
    Sonamic and eng like this.
  11. Bran

    Bran Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    20th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    3,213
    Location:
    At work

    Yep. This is why I think it's ever so slightly closer to the peak than the start of its rise.
     
    D.K and Jake Milne like this.
  12. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    1,387
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I didnt know the investment clock was AM!!!!?!?!!?!

    Now im confused
     
    Bran, eng and Tyler Durden like this.
  13. Blueskies

    Blueskies Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    190
    Location:
    Brisbane
    My two cents, I put no stock in the concept of property moving according to a "clock" type cycle. Obviously there are periods of growth, falls and flat periods. But trying to shoehorn these into a repeatable cycle that can be used to time your entry/exit from the market is not a great idea. Plenty of examples where this pattern breaks down, and new highs immediately follow previous highs, or values fall, flatline, then fall again.

    It's much like technical vs fundamental analysis in stock picking. For me, I will take the fundamentals every time.
     
    Jake Milne, eng and Cat like this.
  14. Simon L

    Simon L Investment Property Buyers Agent Business Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    184
    Location:
    Sydney, Brisbane
    I don't see Logan as a whole gaining significant traction until BCC has reached near peak - and by all accounts its certainly on its way.

    Note that most Logan suburbs are still not selling at prices from the last peak between 2007 - 2009. I expect the next Logan 'boom' to reach higher levels than the last peak whether its this one or the next.

    All speculative ofcourse :)
     
    Frazz, eng and bob shovel like this.
  15. Greyghost

    Greyghost Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,259
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Part of an email I received yesterday:

    Don't quote me on the content - just passing it on...

    LOGAN:

    1. Houses under $300K are becoming extinct:
    • You cannot buy anything unless it needs a lot of work
    • I attended a bank auction on the weekend for a 3 bed 1 bath ex : Department of Housing home. There were 30 people and 12 registered bidders.
    • Demand is far higher than supply.
    • This product will soon become extinct.
    • Market is rising – bottom end of the market is disappearing.
    • My call is we are at 10 – 10.30 PM on the property clock

    2. Houses $300- $400K
    • The local real estate agents are reporting huge shortage of stock – cannot get listings.
    • More buyers than sellers
    • Pressure is definitely up!
    • From November last year - it has turned into a “sellers’ market”

    3.DUAL LIVING
    • Very much in demand
    • Prices rising nicely

    4.RENTAL MARKET
    • Is softer than last year.
    • This is due to a number of factors:
    - Increased supply: lots of new product coming to completion and heaps more to come!
    - Decreased number of people moving into the area. Note : due to the boat people (refugees)
    we saw an extraordinary increase in population over the previous 3 years.
    This pushed rents
    up significantly during this time.
    - When re- letting, we are having to discount 10% to find tenants. It is taking one week longer
    on average to obtain a “qualified tenant” (always plenty of unqualified ones)

    IPSWICH

    1. Sales : Agents have same problem here – “no stock”
    • I was talking to one of the best Salesperson in one of the biggest Offices for 2 days. He told me he only had 3 listings (Normally, he would have 6 - 10 ).
    • As a result, agents are “buying” their listing. They “buy them” by offering sellers better prices than their competitors. What seller doesn’t want that? lol

    2. Bottom end of market is disappearing.

    3. Market is rising

    4. 9 PM on the property clock


    Note: It is worth mentioning that Ipswich is a very large city! (equivalent to about 20 municipalities of Sydney). It offers one of the only areas where large tracks of land are available for development within proximity to the CBD Brisbane. It is very well run and progressive and offers product and lifestyle for every taste – rich or poor. There are good medium and long term prospects, reminds me so much of western Sydney! I can’t help but think that the same thing is happening and will happen in Ipswich. Of course it will take longer and maybe won’t go as high.

    RENTALS:

    1. A lot of new stock came onto the market last year. But the majority will come on the market this year.
    • I suspect that as a result of this, rental prices will not rise. In fact it has already flatlined in some products in our experience.
    • E.G. in the “4 bed 2 bath 2 car house and land package” product.
    • There is a heap of that stuff out there now. It has all been bought by southern investors. I wouldn’t be surprised that in the future we see an oversupply come to play at some stage.

    GOLD COAST

    Sales:

    1. Same problem here also – Agents are struggling to find listings. It is quickly becoming a sellers’ market.
    2. I think the unit market on the Gold Coast is the “Most undervalued product in any capital city in Australia” .
    3. In some cases it is even half the price of Brisbane just 1 hour down the road. Brisbane people know it now! They’re coming down more and more and saying to themselves – why aren’t I living here?
    • This imbalance cannot prevail.
    • Unless we see another GFC, there has to be a correction (not a boom), just a correction. A boom may follow later..
    • Even if there is a global shock – there will still have to be a correction on the medium to long term.
    • 2nd hand product can be bought at less than “HALF” of its replacement cost still – even one third!
    4. The Chinese are buying all the Development Sites and Management Rights they can get their hands on.
    5. Chinese tourists numbers to Australia overtook New Zealanders for the first time “EVER” since records began.
    6. The council just passed “unlimited height restrictions” for new developments. Catering for the new wave of Asian developers.
    7. Commonwealth games.
    8. Coolangatta international airports just keeps getting NEW direct flights to new destinations somewhere around the world every couple of months.
    9. The $AUD is low – tourism is booming – and looking even better in the future.
    10. Brisbane airport is also being expanded.
    11. New Gold Coast monorail is being connected to the main Brisbane line

    EXCITING TIMES AHEAD
    7 – 8 o’clock on the property clock

    RENTAL MARKET - UNITS:

    1. There has been a definite SHORTAGE of rental accommodation for some time now.
    • Note – there was no new supply of high-rise units since the GFC in 2008/9. (Where every developer was put into liquidation) Next to no high-rise building got built in the last 7 years.
    • Only now the new buildings are starting to come out of the ground. But it will be 2- 4 years before the first round come to completion. “In the mean time you better know someone, or have a bucket full of money” or you won’t find a place to rent
    2. Asking rents have risen 10% in last year.
    3. 0% vacancy from what I see.
    4. We are even pre-renting them before they become vacant!
    5. We are naming our price!
     
    Sam Yue, eng and larrylarry like this.
  16. Biz

    Biz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,473
    Location:
    Sydney
    Define "Logan"
     
  17. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    20th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,839
    Location:
    Brisbane
    I agree with your last point- i would look at fundamentals over point in time technicals .however, i would look at technicals to get an idea of movement ie where its heading.
     
  18. Tyler Durden

    Tyler Durden Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jan, 2016
    Posts:
    281
    Location:
    Australia
    Hi @Greyghost - who is the text attributed to if it isn't your content?

    Seems to contain some interesting statements regarding stock on market.
     
  19. meme plecko

    meme plecko Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    200
    Location:
    sydney
    @Greyghost , I've read a number of comments here on PC screaming to avoid Gold Coast units at any cost, this article is fully opposite to that view. What is your take on GC units? Anyone else who knows this market, please comment
     
  20. Greyghost

    Greyghost Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,259
    Location:
    Melbourne
    It's from a BA in the area.
    I dont want to mention their business im sorry.
    I'm not affiliated with them nor do share the same views on the content.
    Take it as you will.
    Just wanted to pass it on for members..