Where do you see Sydney market in 12 months?

Lots of opinions and speculation going around the fate of Sydney market..

Please indicate your best guess via selecting a response below (and optionally explain by leaving a reply).

 

I reckon we will see some correction is Sydney prices.

Educated guess - around 5-7%..

Pretty safe to say we past euphoria stage (chart attached)!.

 

Which part of Sydney and also what type of Stock?

I feel some parts of Sydney and stock types will perform differently to others.

I see affordable stock in desirable areas holding up.

 

I believe he’s asking for the broad index.

No point asking the forum how a handful of houses on x street performs. Or how x style house with 3 bedroom in x area.

Just broadly.

Broadly we look to already be at 5-8%. So I’m thinking 10-20.

 

Wow, 20% is big call...

 

I believe I said 10-20. And peak price to now it’s probably getting close to 5-8% now. So saying under 10% is unlikely.

Secondly. Most people here have a bias to want it to be less. Thus they want to believe up to 10% at worst. As a result I think that it will be worse than most of the people here.

Remember we ar crystal balling. So basically nobody knows and to be honest most economic modeling isn’t much better than tarot card reading. Plenty in Ireland thought they were headed for a soft landing.

 

Aah, you taking into account drop that has happened already.. fair enough

I read it as another 10-20% drop on top of what we have already seen..

Index result as at April 30, 2018 attached!.

 

August 2018

 

Why wouldn't a 20 to 25% drop from peak be plausible? It has happened to some areas of Perth.
Property is only worth what people can pay. Wages are pretty static and getting money has gotten harder.

I have no idea or experience in predicting the lotto of the property market.

 

Have you got the monthly? Those don’t help until I can spot the peak.

 

I would say 5-10% down .... APRA's handcuff is stopping people refinance into better rates and with IO rate being reverted to P&I it means more will be forced to sell.

Until the handcuff is off I don't see any growth for next few years in general.

 

when do you think the handcuff will be off?

 

If the banks have spent the last 5-10 years handing out way to much money to investors and many have to sit on the sidelines for a few years till their income comes up, you might easily see 2-3 years of slow declines as the only people turning up for home opens and sales are new home buyers .
The big drops might not occur until you get a really big oversupply of property for sale, especially if interest rates keep on rising.

 

In 12 months. My guess is another 5-10% down.

 

My guess, a further 10% on top of the 6-8 already seen

 

Generally, down 5-10% from today. Only A grade properties will get top dollar over the next few years - that means fully renovated. No money to spend. High grade finishes in the kitchen and bathrooms etc etc...

B Grade properties - which may be perfectly good properties in great locations but are dated and require money to be spent, wont get top dollar anymore. Buyers will not be willing to pay "FOMO" prices for properties they need to put a lot of money into - not in a flat or retreating market

 

Back to June-Dec 2016 pricing.

 

It won't. Globally things are tightening in terms of finance. Australia is not immune. The lenders' company ledgers are showing the impact of Basel changes (international regulatory framework).
Basel III: international regulatory framework for banks

 

Property is only worth what banks are willing to lend.

 

Cash is king then. Some people will always be able to take out mortgages. Ultimately property is worth what people are willing, and able (ethical lending), to pay. It always should have been this way.