Where are the crashing markets in Sydney?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Sackie, 31st Aug, 2018.

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  1. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Is the 20% per year or per peak to trough? (Do you have a link?)

    After the last boom, many better Sydney suburbs didn't really drop in value, they went in a long lull of nothingness. But Sydney suburbs around Parramatta and Bankstown/South Western Sydney tended to fall, example sales prices went from a peak of 400k down to 300k. (Approximately between the years 2004 to 2006). So let's say they lost 25% over 2 years.
    But I don't really feel that they "crashed".

    Corrected, sure. Anyway, those suburbs now are 1 mill+. Maybe this time some may go from 1mill to 800k and others will hold steady with the 2017 gains gone.

    My feeling is these suburbs mightn't drop quite as much as last time as they are more affordable for FHBs, migrants and for people upgrading from an apartment to a house than the better located suburbs. These areas aren't considered as being on Sydney's outskirts and everyday normal people live there. I generally think these suburbs will hold their prices given when people can get loans, their borrowing capacity is nowhere as much as it was pre APRA. Hence the cheaper properties have a market.

    I think that anything far out and not convenient to a train line will suffer. People want accessibility to the city - I think anything that takes more than 80 minutes to get to work in the city is less desirable. Will it mean a pullback for the Central Coast? I reckon yes. Woy Woy will probably hold ok, but other parts of the Central Coast that have accessibility difficulties to Sydney may find the market softer. Note though, some Sydneysiders are still looking to migrate out to the Central Coast - particularly if they find/hold non-Sydney based jobs and are currently renting.

    Just my thoughts though and something to watch.
     
  2. mues

    mues Well-Known Member

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    I agree - but to get 100% gains, most would have had to have purchased 8ish years ago? (i didnt check the tables on median price).

    Lots of investors have purchased in the last 3-4. Lots would have paid 800, think its worth 1.2, and 20% would rip it back to very little profit.
     
  3. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Reckon a lot started their portfolios 2012 and earlier which is pre boom, and "double your money" territory. Then from around beginning of 2015 many Sydneysiders shifted focus to buying in other states.
     
  4. icic

    icic Well-Known Member

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    I think interstate investment still is a minority. Sure it maybe majority on a property chat . But for friends and family I know who have investments, its a minority.
     
  5. mues

    mues Well-Known Member

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    Any stats to support that? From 2014 to 2017 the best part of half loans written were investment, considering that Sydney had the biggest price increase - i would think its fair to assume there were a lot of purchases by investors in sydney.
     
  6. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Tbh i don't care when others bought. Doesn't affect my purchases. Lots of savvy investors started buying 5 years ago and already made a killing. I'm sure many others then bought along a spectrum of more value to no value. But i don't really care who buys when. It's largey inconsequential to me.
     
  7. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    That is exactly what we and close friends did. I was literally shouting at my friends in 2013 to buy blue chip. Around 2015 and beyond bought some great deals in inner and middle rings Brissy. Pre 2013 stocked up on Sydney East 2026.
     
  8. mues

    mues Well-Known Member

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    I guess thats the real different between you and I. I really do care about what others are doing, as I view the whole market as very connected.
     
  9. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    Costlier properties (if one has to sell) becomes cheaper due to lesser demand (reduced buying power), so the cheaper properties will become even more cheaper due to trickle down effect of reduced buying power.
     
  10. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    Individuals who doesn't have to sell none of it matters really,
    the talk is about the ones who has to sell in next few years, for whatever reason, to them price and availability of credit matters, buying power matters, prevailing market sentiment matters.
     
  11. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    Shifting goal posts :)
    not long ago in Sydney, 5% drop from peak was accepted normal, 20% was unthinkable.
    now looks like 15% is the fast becoming the New-Normal and the fight is about whether 30% or 40% is the New-Unthinkable
     
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  12. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    There is no " the whole market connected ". That's why Perth tanked and Syd and Melb boomed. Then within markets in NSW many didn't do much while others kicked ass during the boom. Then, Inner/middle ring Brisbane markets killed outer rings and regionals. Homes markets in inner/middle ring killed units markets. etc etc etc all over the country .Thousands of markets in Australia disconnected due to unique supply/demand factors in those areas. Of course there is connectedness. But way less than I believe pragmatically affects buyers decisions.

    Anyway whatever works for people.
     
    Last edited: 24th Sep, 2018
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  13. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    Good point
     
  14. hobartchic

    hobartchic Well-Known Member

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    Crash

    Yearly at 20 per cent drop = a bear market (a crashed market).
    Bull Market
     
  15. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Alot on this forum told me Lurnea in SW Sydney would tank.
    This was 12 months ago on that dot in a City meeting.

    And I quote in 12 months you will have lost 10+% will you be ok with that ?

    Why dont you sell now and buy in Brisbane or Canberra.
    I replied I understand the suburb and drivers and I think it will hold up. It was since improved and a Granny built on it. Yielding 5-6% with a rent increase planned after Christmas break. Agent feel granny can go up from $390 to $410


    You have to at times not listen. That is listen evaluate and make up your own mind.


    Every person on this forum Im sure has some places they are confident. in No matter what state.



    Lurnea 3 bedroom.png
     
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  16. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    along with shifting goal posts,
    have noticed "Paid too much", "worth no more" is becoming a recurring theme on this forum.
     
  17. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Everyone out there has an opinion but unfortunately imo most are useless. I personally only take on board and assess the opinions of those who have significant runs on the board.
     
  18. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    I see that but not people that are actually invested rather members who dont own and comment on others as having paid too much?

    This is kind of what it seems to me.
    Kind of like justifying hey this is why i didnt buy ..You see I was right.
     
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  19. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Ok if annually, I don't think we'll see a crash. It's a slow deflation.
     
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  20. hobartchic

    hobartchic Well-Known Member

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    It's going to depend on the location and property. Overall, probably a deflation, with crashes here and there.