When will the next rate cut(s) occur?

Looks like no more rate cuts.

Unemployment rate is showing better results than expected.

And NSW now has the lowest unemployment rate in Australia.

 

I think it is beyond speculation now. Almost a certainty

 

Yes. Agreed.

However, the Fed have held off because of financial instability in Europe and elsewhere. Their decision so far has resulted in a flee to capital safety in the US which in turn has seen a rise in the USD ....which in turn makes US products more expensive globally.

If interest rates are raised, it would just result in another cycle of the same.....which would then negatively impact the US economy.

The Fed should do nothing......but, I agree with you. They probably will raise rates.

 

I also voted they will stay the same then rise next year. The next movement will be up.

The law of diminishing returns has passed regarding further rate cuts. They don't stimulate the economy at this point when rates are so low. In fact it's a mark of desperation. Low rates knock out a lot of financial business models that need a historically normal base rate to work.

Bond guru Bill Gross said it best:

“The Fed is beginning to recognise that 6 years of zero bound interest rates have negative influences on the real economy — it destroys historical business models essential to capitalism such as pension funds, insurance companies, and the willingness to save money itself.”

Unfortunately some of our 'leading economists' haven't learnt something from the failed 'zero interest rate strategies' employed by other central bankers.

 

Yes they will probably increase rates by 0.10% and it won't have much effect but it's a token to say they've "increased" rates.

 

The Fed needs to raise interest rates because baby boomers expect and demand and need it to support their retirement.

We live in a global economy..........and unfortunately, that means either citizens suffer by taking a global view ........or everyone suffers by taking an an introverted nationalist view.

The Fed should do nothing. But agreed. They probably won't.

But wouldn't it be nice if they decided that the best thing for everyone is to do nothing.

 

Literally

 

Iron ore
China
Low petrol prices
Low inflation

Vs

Fudged employment numbers

Low rates are here 2 stay for a very long time.

 

I'm in two minds about this, the economy is likely to underperform for an extended period but the latest employment numbers in the eastern states were very strong. I know there has been much debate about ABS figures recently but if the trend continues despite different metrics it can't be ignored?

 

Looking deeper into the ABS number one can see that the confidence intervals are way to big for the ABS to say unemployment @5.8%. The 95% confidence interval for total employment ranges from 13k to 130k. From that providing the figure of 5.8 unemployment is misleading.
Employment rate is a lagging indicator anyway, iron ore, oil, gas and coal prices are all plummeting and rates are still high compare to other developed economy. I would say rate would hold in medium terms and perhaps another cut mid-late next year.
With property market cooling off, it would be interesting to see where all the freed up construction labour go.