When will the Melbourne property market bottom out?

Case study to show the bottom has already passed.
104 Grandview Grove, Rosanna
Sold 104 Grandview Grove, Rosanna VIC 3084 on 12 Oct 2018 - 2014641237 | Domain

Sent via the Domain App
61 Grandview Grove, Rosanna
Sold 61 Grandview Grove, Rosanna VIC 3084 on 15 Jun 2019 - 2015295830 | Domain

Sent via the Domain App
A much better house on the same st, same size land was cheaper late last year

 

I think the one at 61 has better development potential (retain the existing one and build 2 at the back) compared to the one at 104 (maybe 1 at the back if the existing house is retained).
But I have the same observation as you. I think the market bottomed around Feb-Apr 19

 

My comments on the core logic daily index on the Housing Downturn Over thread.

• Low point for the index was 139.49 on 6 June. Another 1 to 2 weeks of data need to determine if this is the bottom but 28-day and 7-day rolling averages may confirm we have passed the bottom for Melbourne ( approx 1 month after Sydney ).

So the index needs to hold above 139.49 to confirm we have passed the bottom.

Chart is from my post here:
This Housing Downturn is Over

(and is a plot of the rolling 28-day average of the % daily change in the index ... for most of this chart on average the change was negative or a decline in the index)




These are the Core Logic Daily index values since the last low on 6 June:

Date Melbourne (MELD)
18/06/2019 139.55
17/06/2019 139.53
16/06/2019 139.56
15/06/2019 139.59
14/06/2019 139.67
13/06/2019 139.75
12/06/2019 139.72
11/06/2019 139.64
10/06/2019 139.69
9/06/2019 139.61
8/06/2019 139.58
7/06/2019 139.61
6/06/2019 139.49

 

Hi @wombat777

Thanks for technical analysis. But markets in west are holding and south west have not dropped. Could your stats be reflecting a specific area or in general? Particularly east.

Big numbers and have been dropping aince nearly 2 years now.

Regards

 

Corelogic numbers are city-wide analysis of sales data for all of Melbourne. So that would be this area:

 

Interesting, is their a way to track regionals?
Can you please publish stats, if possible?

Regards

 

No. Can’t track regionals.

Data is from the Core Logic website.

 

I think sub $600k housing market is doing better still, sweet spot for FHB and investors.

 

23/30 Esplanade, Brighton, Vic 3186

23/30 Esplanade Brighton - 3 bed townhouse with sea views

Sold March 2015 $1,953,000

On market now for $1,585,000

Selling agent is an out of area Chinese agent...looks like another one time “savvy investor”.... now “vendor says sell”.

18% below 2015 price.

 

Pretty unique property, I'm guessing 2015 was brand new? There's not a lot of land value component in that townhouse

 

Whilst waiting for the assessment rate to drop to increase my borrowing capacity to what I need, I lament the speed with which some markets are moving.

This one caught my eye when it came on the market listed at 1,400,000 to 1,500,000 and sold today for 1,950,000 (734 High Street, Armadale, Vic 3143)

 

HTW's July National Property Clock suggesting Melbourne is at the bottom now:

https://storage.googleapis.com/htw-...htw-month-in-review-july-2019_residential.pdf

 

I think lots of people would agree that property still has a bit too fall..

 

Wow, that's pretty fierce, I think definitely a case of 'would have been better renting'.

What would the in and out costs come to on a deal like that? Assuming they got the utility of the unit/ rental value over the period they owned it, there's the opportunity cost of having the money parked earning a little interest, but also paying council rates etc?

Realistically, can anyone estimate the overall loss?

 

14 Grenhilda Road Rosanna Vic 3084 14 Grenhilda Road, Rosanna, Vic 3084
Sold for 1.525 about 5 bidders

 

over 100k stamp duty.

 

Rosanna and Heidelberg is more expensive now than 6 months ago. Mostly because of 0 supply.

 

Most of the houses for sale during that period were knock downs or ones that needed a lot of work. Recently there have been listings for very nice houses in good areas and they are all selling well, partly due to the pent up demand

 

Yah.

But there was 4 beds needing renovation for 1mil 6 months back. Renovated 4 beds (not top notch) now at 1.5mil. There should be a gap. But not 500k

 

Like Sydney some parts are doing ok but not major up tick.

I have one for sale....there..and will take advantage of silly people jumping into the market. Bought for 130k and will sell for 450k plus...