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When to buy in SYDNEY northern beaches?????

Discussion in 'General Property Chat' started by mali77, 1st Dec, 2015.

  1. mali77

    mali77 Member

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    So, after reading several economists reviews of the Sydney housing market come 2016, when is a good time to buy? I sold in July 2015 and have been holding off from buying hoping that the market would soften. Is this NOW? I'm looking to buy on the Northern Beaches which still has a pretty healthy market ( 75%) clearance rate. Should I hold off until the second half of 2016 to re enter the market ??
    Opinions ??
     
  2. Propertunity

    Propertunity Exclusive Real Estate Buyers Agent Business Member

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    Ask the economists who predicted 15 of the last 3 recessions we had? ;)

    Yes & No. Yes the stats show a fall in the month of November. (Would I take notice of a 1 month anything in real estate? - No) Sydney house prices fall in November: report
    Softenings in a RE cycle last typically for years not a 1 month appearance. In a typical 10 year period you could expect 4 years (2 x 2 years) of solid growth / boom and 6 years of flat/slightly falling/slightly rising.

    This is the equivalent of asking: "Should I buy BHP shares now?"
    What if the market on the Northern Beaches goes up say 10% in the next 12 months and then softens by say 5%? You'd still be paying 5% more than if you purchased today.
    Most investors are very bad at trying to "time" an entry and an exit in the market. I suspect you are too.
     
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  3. mali77

    mali77 Member

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    I was more interested in opinions in relation to the property market over the next 12 months in relation the the US forthcoming interest rate, it's effect on our dollar and in turn our exports/ economy and its effect on our property market.

    Is there areal chance of a property dip in excess of 10%. Is it worth holding off for a year?
     
  4. bob shovel

    bob shovel Well-Known Member

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    Is it a ppor?
     
  5. mali77

    mali77 Member

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    Yes it is
     
  6. timetoact

    timetoact Well-Known Member

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    Mali I am in exactly the same boat.
    Sold PPOR in July this year, planned to buy in the same market but after watching it come off a bit we have decided to rent and hold fire for the time being.
    We currently have all our funds earning 3.5% with St George.
    With the amount of funds that we have this makes renting cheaper than buying for the time being and we are happy to wait and see what happens.
    We are not expecting a drop of any significance but we are expecting better buying opportunities in the years ahead. We will continue to monitor the market, go to opens of very specific properties and what for that opportunity to arise.

    Despite what some may say about not trying to time the market, I disagree. You can absolutely time the market. Not to perfection, but buying right now is in my opinion not even remotely trying to time it correctly.

    You must buy well.

    So research the area, know what the peak was and if you can buy at minimum 10% under the peak price and it is the right property, then go for it.
     
  7. bob shovel

    bob shovel Well-Known Member

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    Yep! Being ppor I was thinking the same. Check the clock and its pretty much peak as you've mentioned so prices won't being going up drastically in the coming years but may fall.

    Given its a ppor is wait for the right one to come along, suss out your areas and go to open homes
     
  8. mali77

    mali77 Member

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    Thanks for the good advice
    Timetoact, that is a great rate, I will investigate.
    Thanks you two for the positive feedback
     
  9. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    I would personally hold off...some interesting events forming in Sydney including a lot of people moving away from Sydney due to the COL (Cost of Living) here.

    It is very probable the property market will settle back a bit in the next 2-3 years...
     
  10. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Hopefully they're moving to Brisbane @sash :)
     
  11. ZachAnsel

    ZachAnsel Well-Known Member

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    Mali,

    My uncle load his apartment in Parramatta this April via auction. He currently renting and considering to buy in Epping. After long discussion, what he did is re-invest using manage funds. His risk profile not comfortable to buy interstate. One of my recommendation is to wait and see at least 24-36 months..

    I think he into something with his manage funds. Time will tell..
     
  12. Chilliblue

    Chilliblue Well-Known Member

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    My opinion is different if it is a PPOR. If the right property comes up at the right price then timing has no issue @mali77
     
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  13. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    Autumn/winter when vendors are desperate and buyers are scarce. &summer is a distant memory).
     
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  14. Jacque

    Jacque Buyers Agent and Bookworm, Sydney Business Member

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    What part of the NB are you looking to buy, as this will make a difference?
    We're not seeing a tailing off in traditional strongholds like Manly but upper NB are a different story...
     
  15. timetoact

    timetoact Well-Known Member

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    Yes that is right, but "the right price" is the big question.
    In my opinion you will not get the right price for some time yet. The market is over cooked.
    There is no rush right now, bide your time and wait for a really good opportunity. This can happen in any market (and may happen tomorrow) but there will be more over the coming years than there has been for some time.

    PPOR also offers a tax free path to wealth creation and the better you buy the bigger the gain. 10% of Sydney median is ~$100k, and, well, $100k is $100k...
     
  16. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    +1 saw a nice one in Avalon the other day. <$1m. It was tempting but the commute is a long un
     
  17. bob shovel

    bob shovel Well-Known Member

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    They are introducing double decker buses and express service Mona to the city. Still a long haul though!
     
  18. Rolf Latham

    Rolf Latham Inciteful (sic) Staff Member Business Plus Member

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    A biz mentor of mine says " hope is not a strategy".............. and Id agree in many instances

    One quantification that may help............ what is softening for you specifically ............... ?

    Yours might be 5 %, for another it might be 30 %

    The "Insular peninsula" is known as such for many reasons.......

    ta
    rolf
     
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  19. timetoact

    timetoact Well-Known Member

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    They are wise words, no doubt.

    For me the market as a whole doesn't need to soften. In a bull market good deals are few and far between. Vendors that are forced to sell get lucky as there a plenty of buyers around. But in a slow market some get stuck and have to take what they can get. These are the opportunities I will be waiting for. In the mean time rent is cheaper than mortgage and based on my view of property prices I am getting a better return from the bank.

    btw, while Mali is looking on NB I am looking Eastern Suburbs and Inner West.
     
  20. mali77

    mali77 Member

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    I am specifically looking around Newport / Bilgola