When Labor Win - Crystal ball Gazing

Most of the posters are not closet liberal voters. Most are quite open about it.

I don't know who will win the next election but I presume Labor. The coalition holds a one seat majority in the lower house. If they lose 2 seats in the lower house they are out of government. They are tipped to lose more than 10 seats.

It would not take much of a swing against the coalition for them to be ousted.

 

Last date for election is 2nd November 2019 so there is still time for things to play out. If there was an election today, according to the media polls, labor would win.
Funny thing as the date gets closer, things usually tighten up but that may not be the case this time and we shall see.
Would a labor win change your behaviour in when and how you invest?

 

Yes. I constantly refine my strategy so I will invest according to the prevailing conditions at the time.

For example, in 2015 I was heavily negatively geared. But times changed and I adapted and now run a cashflow positive portfolio.

If Labor win and implement their NG policy as currently written then it would be smart for me to look at picking up a negatively geared IP as long as the numbers stack up. If they don't win then I most likely would not pick up.a negatively geared property.

Only if they split the lower house and half senate elections which would be very unlikely.

The next half senate election must be held before 30 June 2019, so it is very likely a general election will be held in the first half of next year.

"It has been possible to issue writs for a half-senate election since July 1 this year. The Australian Electoral Commission has advised it takes up to six weeks to finalise the Senate count, so May 18, 2019 has been advised as the last possible day on which a half-senate election can be held.

As governments try to avoid holding separate House and half-senate elections, May 18, 2019 is effectively the last date for holding the next House of Representatives election."​

How and when to call the next federal election

 

Nope, still not seeing any card-carrying-rusted-on liberal voters challenging the presumption of this thread. So even the faithful aren't defending the status quo. Liberals out, Labor in.

 

Maybe we are just being realistic and have accepted our fate.

If there is a 1% swing to Labor then the coalition will lose 3 seats, which means they are out. Is a 1% swing to Labor so unimaginable? I don't think so. Just for outsting Turnbull they could lose 1%.

I think it's called being realistic.

 

I don't think scomo would make a bad PM , but he's showing error's in judgment at this stage . Floating the idea that Jerusalem could be the capital of Israel , however he couched it with maybe's , and ignoring whether there is any benefit or not to the idea , was incredibly naive and probably put the Jewish community offside as they would see it purely as an attempt to buy their vote .

Not looking good for Libs in Wentworth with Kerryn Phelps ahead by 10 % ... Seems to be a mid life career move for some Dr's with Joe McGirr getting in in Wagga and her looking good for wentworth.

Can't imagine the liberals would be dumb enough to replace him , but you never know .

We have adapted our plans on the assumption that Labour will win . If they do we may see a period of sideways growth . Closing into retirement so we lowering our target slightly with the aim to get there slightly earlier and not being as exposed ( But we've been doing that for the last year and a half ) but bringing a couple of things forward . If we had further to go , I'd be happy to stay more exposed .

Cliff

 

If the swing in Wentworth is any indication, it’s quite possibly going to be the worst beating in Australian electoral history. never say never of course ..... a comeback is still possible , but the sense I get is that most people have made up their minds already that the Libs have to go, and nothing is going to change their minds. I guess we will find out sometime in 2019

 

Hung parliament, call for election, ALP wins and BS becomes PM. Unlike the brisbane boom, BS becoming next PM is inevitable :>P

 

The sad thing is that a lot of Australians are totally disillusioned with both major parties and one can’t blame them .

My fear is that these voters will turn to the whacko parties and/or the independents . We will end up with the Government we deserve.

I feel politics in Australia will get a lot worse before we see any rays of sunshine .

 

A number of cross benchers have already promised confidence and supply so hung parliament doesn't mean anything at this point.

My take away from the by election is that there was a swing against Liberals, Labor and the Greens. If that gets replicated federally then the next government is going to be very, very interesting

 

The irony in all this is that the Liberals hammered the ALP in the lead up to the 2013 federal election about the Merry-go-round of leaders and the need for stable government, and now they have done exactly the same as their predecessors.
You would really think cooler heads should have prevailed from within the partly while all this was being played out between Dutton and Turnball.

 

Yes i have and will be voting labour. Full disclosure i have always voted labour as they align with my social values. I can also understand why people vote Liberal based on Conservative values.

But what i can't understand is people voting liberal on the false belief of better economic management.

 

Wait until BS and the ALP gets in, then you will understand .

 

Lol, i have followed shortens career since beconsfield so am well aware of his politics. I also watched the entire fiasco or the Turc, primarily focused on tearing Shorten down, how much tax dollars were ****** up the wall by the coalition on that one?

How about the complete train wreck of the NBN, what was the opportunity cost to the economy derailing that on the bequest of a single vested interest.

Lack of climate change policy and the stalling of the transition to a renewable economy. This is where we should be leading the world, but yet again derailled by vested interest and large political donation to serve the few.

The incessant pollicy of trickle down economics through tax cuts to multinationals who have no incentice to reinvest into our economy. Some of which have been pursuing and laundering money through BEPS.

So i am well aware of the consequence of a Shorten government and the ending of the economic vandalism of the coalition gov.

 

Well I'm hoping more people are rational and support Liberal simply because their policies are better. All this leadership turmoil is just noise.

Restoring the budget to surplus, retaining our Australia's triple A rating, cutting company tax rates is good economic management. We are down to 5% unemployment and 4.4% in NSW. Despite people questioning how accurate this number is, I like how we are placed for opportunity for greater wage growth.

Labor's policies have no thorough thinking to them whatsoever. Messing with negative gearing, messing with CGT exemption and messing with franking credits in isolation makes no sense whatsoever and they are just good headlines to appeal to those who hate the invested. A broader well thought out property tax reform is what is needed to replace outdated policies.

If you are not going to do it right, I rather they not do it at all because it causes more harm than good.

 

If you are going to talk about pi$$ing up the wall, don’t forget the champion pi$$er upper and that is Kevin Rudd .

And I voted for him .

 

There is a lot opinions and predictions out there ,some will be right and some wrong depending on the time-frame..But I would be thinking if Labor gain power and from previous behavioural finance blunders under Labor most will end up "traveling on the slope of hope"..

 

Debating whether Labor or Liberals win the next election is not only superficial, it speaks volumes of what is wrong with politics & political debate in this country.

It's like debating whether it's better to be smacked on the left or right of your head.....

 

In my bayside brisbane suburb where homes sell for around a million we are still waiting for the NBN. Go figure...

 

Has the NBN come to Brisbane? I thought it stopped at the border.