When Labor Win - Crystal ball Gazing

There was a survey out a couple of months that showed that the “ extreme “ right wing ( by Aussie standards ) were a small minority but at the same time felt they were part of the majority . Showed where the Alan Jones etc of this world really belong .

Cliff

 

In fact if labor cut ties with unions and taxed asx listed share purchases the same as property. Id be voting labor next election. Pretty sure theyre notgoing to listen to me though.

 

Which area of taxation are you referring to?

 

Stamp duty on purchases.

 

Isn't that a state government tax that the federal government have no control over?

 

Can SCOMO save tbe furniture.

 

Why is Bill Shorten always trailing when it comes to preferred leader polls?!

 

Of course it is. But I’m staggered that we accept that average joes are hit with this 5% tax when buying their average home or investment, but billionaires are not hit with stamp duty when they “play” the market. Either they are both dutied on or no duty on either.

 

Because the public (at least those polled) don’t like him .

I don’t blame them. Put Abo or Tanya in charge and it will most likely change .

 

I think a fair share of the Australian public still associate Shorten with the Union movement which doesn't help his cause at all.

 

Except this LIB Govt has spent a higher % of GDP than any previous Govt - of any persuasion...
The accept wisdom that Libs manage our economy better than Labour is a myth... but I digress....

I dont think it's a certainty they'll move on neg gearing. They may, but just like it has helped the RBA not having to lift rates, I think the APRA intervention has done the work for them and allows them some wiggle room. Allows them to avoid a fight that doesnt really get them very much anymore.... Before APRA's policies started taking effect, the effects of NG removal as a tool to assist FHB's with affordability could be argued, and pretty well........ but prices are coming off in Sydney and Melbourne already - parents arent talking about their kids never getting onto the property ladder now. Parents are telling their kids to stay off the ladder for 18-24 months .... The dialogue has shifted, so there's simply no need for them to intervene now. It wont get them any votes. They would get a diminished return on their political capital ... and it will cost them a lot of political capital -make no mistake. Their policy would have been better suited to a pre APRA credit environment.

Also - we should remember that the removal of NG wouldnt just hurt the cash flow of investors seeking to buy established dwellings - imagine if lenders all removed neg gearing from servicing calcs for anything but new dwellings and existing dwellings purchased before date X.... those investors would also see their borrowing power take another beating.... and if this led to established areas correcting even further, this could have serious ramifications for consumer spending and really slow the economy down. So as I said..I dont think it's a certainty they will pursue this.

I think they will pursue CGT concessions though. If they are going to have to spend political capital on something housing related I suspect its better spent there than Neg Gearing, where the impact will now be negligible as debt to income ratios and IO quotas deliver first home buyers with better affordability ( didnt say good...said better) by sidelining investors somewhat. ( or a lot in some cases)

Bottom line - the policy mix will have to be reviewed because of the APRA effect, you'd have to imagine... and that's before you take the make up of the senate into account, of course. It's difficult to get real changes made in modern Australian politics...no matter who you are.

 

I am not sure Labor could easily backtrack on the NG policy post election. I could see them 'trying it' and perhaps painting the Senate as the bad guys while secretly being thrilled. Agree the CGT concession might be the compromise.

 

Unfortunately this Lib government under Turnbull ( he really wanted to join the labor party like his son Alex) was not a real Conservative government and with a senate that blocked all Tony Abotts debt payback measures was an act of reckleness, not in the national interest.

 

Not going to get into a political discussion and derail the thread, but no.

 

I think because he's not seen as a " True ' Labor leader . He comes across as an intellectual ( which he is and I personally have no problem with that ) .

Cliff

 

You maybe right but Kevin Rudd also saw himself as an intellectual and was hugely popular with the electorate, just not popular within his own party..

 

also as it turned out , not a very good manager ...

The reason why Rudd was popular ( I admit I'm guilty and voted for him ) was he was seen towards the centre of the political spectrum and not a prisoner of the union movement . He was also some one who articulated a vision , problem was he didn't have the ability or backing to carry it off , though I now have problems remembering what the vision was ...

Cliff

 

That's right, he didn't belong to any of the factions.
Sometimes people look good when they are either a cabinet minister or opposition leader but once they get the top job, they can't do it, something that Labor found when Julia took over and then they felt the need to reinstate Kevin to save the furniture in the election where Tony won.
Weirdly enough the Liberals did the same thing except they replaced Tony who won 25 seats from labor and replaced him with Malcom who took them to a slim 1 seat majority which could all be eroded this weekend, where he and his own son won't support the Liberal candidate, which is crazy stuff really. Meanwhile the rest of us are getting on with business and paying taxes so the politicians can have their wonderful pensions.

 

The title of this thread is - When Labor Win - yet, in the all comments above, nobody has yet challenged this presumption. Which i find interesting, in this chat forum of capitalists and closet liberal voters.
So - are we all in agreement - yes, Labor will win the next federal election?
Just curious, not trying to stir it up.