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When did you know?

Discussion in 'Investor Psychology' started by Bran, 26th Jul, 2015.

  1. Bran

    Bran Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure I can convey my thoughts.

    In another thread, someone posted something akin to the property market like a freight train, or something else requiring time and micro movements to gain momentum.

    For those predicting, or watching and waiting for the Sydney boom (or any other), at what point, or stage did you recognise the 'boom' as it was happening?

    For those predicting, or watching and waiting for Brisbane, are we going to see the same markers? Will we recognise them in real time?

    Or does it never happen, but our vals just get incrementally higher?

    I'm looking forward to the emotional positivity (I hope there is such) of recognising that things have gone as planned, LVRs are falling, equity increasing etc.
     
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  2. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo renovating Premium Member

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    2012 was very clearly a great time to buy in Sydney. Not much movement at all. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to buy at the time - or if I was, I didn't know it.
    Started to get optimistic for Sydney just before Christmas 2012. I wasn't on SS then so relied on my own perceptions. Can't remember what it was - slightly less stock on the market or ...? I do recall, it was the very expensive properties that moved first. There were so many bargains to be had at the time.
    I'm sure there were lots like me who could see bargains everywhere but didn't think they could get the funds. Lending was still tight then.
    Stock on market.
     
  3. Gockie

    Gockie I'm an ISTP-A female, so I might be a bit quirky! Premium Member

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    My area of Sydney went nuts first (Epping and Eastwood), I could see it from about September 2012 looking at the graphs on Domain. They were doing these massive jumps upwards month to month.
    I was talking to a colleague early 2013 and she bought a Coogee apartment. I'm like, yep. Time to buy... I just cant believe how pretty much ALL of Sydney then started to rise. That astounds me.
     
  4. Gockie

    Gockie I'm an ISTP-A female, so I might be a bit quirky! Premium Member

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    Nuts or what?
    I've used 3 bedroom houses as the basis for these graphs.
    Screenshot_2015-07-26-21-36-15.png Screenshot_2015-07-26-21-33-21.png
     
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  5. Hanison

    Hanison Well-Known Member

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    Where is the guy from SS that had the graph showing house prices rocketing to the moon with commentary at certain points along the way?

    The graph above very much reminds me of it.
     
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  6. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

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    Well I suppose it was around early to mid 2013, probably May 19 at around 10.00am

    I was having my morning coffee with some French toast in a local cafe. My head was buried in a Sunday paper when I finally got to the house auction results.

    At that point my head seemed to reflex to the right and I sprayed my coffee out. I just couldn't believe what I was seeing - house prices in Mt Druitt were starting to show significant growth.

    After apologising to the family sitting to my right I headed to the local realestate agencies and took note of the prices displayed on the windows.

    Yep, I said. Ders a boom a coming!
     
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  7. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

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    I had to re-val a Sydney property twice in the same year (to unlock equity for other property endeavors). The first time was in March of 2012. I then re-val'd in November 2012 and I knew already the growth rate betwee the valuations was trending rapidly up. That inspired me to do some digging on several Sydney suburbs to realise a boom was emerging.

    Problem was, at that point I had just purchased again, and was maxed out for borrowing power. Another 12 months went by and the upswing escalated even further. By then I'd realised that I didnt look more aggresively at tier 2 lenders, a year previous.

    Had I done; I might have picked up another $300k of borrowing power and bought another one in Sydney in what historically turned out to be pre-boom :/
     
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  8. pugstar205

    pugstar205 Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Brisbane will 'boom' so to speak. Sydney is a totally different market, a world city that had been pretty much static for a long period of time.
    Brisbane doesn't have the wages, employment, migration or under-supply to drive a boom IMO. I think we'll just see a period of general positivity and (unspectacular) uplift. Certain markets and property types will do better than others, but I can't see the same level of growth and market activity across the board that Sydney has experienced.
    If anything, Sydney could be its own worst enemy.
     
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  9. Honeydew

    Honeydew Well-Known Member

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    Hi Gockie,
    Can you show me how to obtain these impressive graphs ? Are they from domain.com??
    Thanks :)

     
  10. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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    Wow, that explains it pretty clearly.
     
  11. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Vals start getting higher but other than that its on paper, your cashflow position is unchanged.
    Before you realize its happened unless your actually monitoring prices with the intent of buying in a particular market.
    Your work mates who normally have no interest in the market also start taliking about property
     
  12. Gockie

    Gockie I'm an ISTP-A female, so I might be a bit quirky! Premium Member

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    Yes. I'm looking at it from the phone, the pc/tablet could be a bit different. I go into a listing (must be something typical of the area, usually 3br houses or 2 br units work)
    Then I see the section "Market Insights" Screenshot_2015-07-27-06-35-20.png Click into there, and voila, you get a graph (it works for the majority of listings)
     
  13. Tekoz

    Tekoz Well-Known Member

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    @Hanison do you mean @Shadow the graph and statistics man :cool: ?
    yes, he is here in the forum.
     
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  14. Honeydew

    Honeydew Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Gockie!

     
  15. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Yeah same as @HUGH72 when vals were coming back high and less conservative.
     
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