ASX Shares What's looking cheap on the ASX in 2019?

Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by Alex Straker, 11th Jan, 2019.

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  1. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    {Note from mods - this thread continued from here: What's looking cheap on the ASX in 2018?}



    @devank Fantastic brother!! 16.7% in 2 days ain't too shabby ;)

    Plenty more potential in CUV too.

    Depending on your goals and how you like to think, here is one strategy option: When we get these rapid gains like off this entry I often take part profit and leave the remaining position in place with a stop loss set to protect profit but allow for further upside. Depending on how the patterns unfold and if the stock still qualifies as a buy with my system I will then aim to re-buy the stock I sold at a better price point again. With stocks that are on the shortlist for accumulating this is a great way to increase holdings rapidly called campaigning in to a stock. I have campaigned CUV successfully 3 times in the last 6 months, have taken part profit a few times with some monster sized gains already and all retained entries are also in profit.

    No advice
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 28th Jan, 2019
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  2. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Developer goldies GOR and EGA are worth a look for medium-term upside ( 12 to 36 months ) but do some research on these and producers with similar scale projects.

    Gold Road Resources (GOR) - For best understanding of current status, watch the video below but here is a quick summary:
    • Latest presentation: https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181211/pdf/44145jktrp13sv.pdf
    • 50% : 50% JV with Gold Fields ( so a 50% share of revenue ), but exploration upside outside of the JV
    • Gold Road down to the last 10% of work for the construction of their mine.
    • Still on track for first gold production in Q2 of 2019.
    • Project updates in next couple of weeks.
    • Expect to be at nameplate production capacity by end of year.
    • Have a look at peer market caps for SAR, SBM and RRL ( MCAPs $2.3B to $2.4M ... GOR will have similar production capacity but 50% ownership of the project which implies significant upside from current MCAP of $610M


    Egan Street Resources (EGA)
    My general plan with these is to free carry and then roll profits into other growth stocks or LICs.
     
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  3. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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  4. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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    @wombat777 I have friends working at Gruyere Gold Mine construction link
     
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  5. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Another goldie I'm tracking is EGA. Approvals and finance for their small underground gold mine need to be in the next 1-2 months for them to meet their planned construction timeline. See page 14 of the following link: https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190212/pdf/442k4rbzs5hrzv.pdf

    I saw their presentation at an investment conference in Sydney last week. Also had a chance to speak to them. Have a good pipeline of drill targets to significantly expand their resource. Once they get into construction on the basis of their current resource cashflow will enable them to self-fund exploration to grow the resources/reserves and life of mine.

    https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190212/pdf/442k7vvvsyw5w6.pdf

    On peer producer metrics their share price should progressively rerate as they construct and then commission the mine.

    Look at PNR for a gold producer with a similar level of production to EGA's planned level of production. MCAP $206M (but a bigger resource) on similar production levels. EGA MCAP $33M. Gives some perspective on potential scale of a rerate. Remember it is primarily EBITDA and NPAT that drive sentiment and share prices.

    Gold price is heading north. Goldies are attracting strong sentiment as the price of gold rises.
     
    Last edited: 20th Feb, 2019
  6. Sannie

    Sannie Well-Known Member

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    Is AFG or MOC still cheap? Anybody looking at or recently bought them what is the rationalebehind the purchase. I am only trying to understand the data available in comm Sec.
     
  7. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    GOR has been running for days.

    Countdown to first gold production in Q2.
     
  8. Silverson

    Silverson Well-Known Member

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    Call me crazy but as a buy and hold investor LLC in my opinion is looking like a good top up or buy target. Listed since the early 1960's, fallen out of favour with the engineering part of the company dropping the ball and now a potential class action due to misleading claims from management (apparently). I've bought afew more parcels over the last few months. As a long term play i rate Lend Lease.
    Thoughts?
     
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  9. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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    Surprised re: Wesfarmers' $1.5 billion bid for rare earths miner Lynas Corp
     
  10. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    Kicking myself for following some advice on last years' thread ... BKL down 30% on what I paid - which was still cheaper than the previous 12 months average.

    Wishing I'd bought more FMG instead
     
  11. CheckMate

    CheckMate Active Member

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    Well I followed some advise on MUS here and lost 99.9% of my investment. I learnt my lesson to do my own DD and not trust some anonymous advises online. In a matter of fact I just don't invest in individual stocks anymore because I'm too lazy to do my own DD.
     
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  12. inertia

    inertia Well-Known Member

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    My lesson was also to lock in profit! The mistake I was making was holding on too long. My recent activity has been much more successful.

    Cheers,
    Inertia.
     
  13. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Nobody on this site is allowed or licensed to give "advice" on stock investments.

    You should not be following anything posted here (or anywhere else for that matter) without doing your own due diligence and having a complete understanding of what you are investing in.

    This applies to both property and shares and other financial products.

    If you feel someone is actually giving "advice" (as opposed to education or opinion), then please report it to the moderators so we can investigate.
     
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  14. CheckMate

    CheckMate Active Member

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    Believe me I don't blame anyone but my own stupidity.
     
  15. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    My poor working. It was a recommendation (not advice) ... I did do my own research and thought, being below the 12 months average they were a good buy and purchasing was no one's fault but my own.

    Just lamenting a little as hate to make a loss on anything
     
  16. ross100

    ross100 Well-Known Member

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    Had bought it few years back and sold it $11 should i have waited ...
     
  17. Frank Manno

    Frank Manno Well-Known Member

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    Hi Lizzie ,

    Mind if I ask which date you bought the shares? Or if you can’t remember then the month would do.

    I just want to look at the charts for my own education.

    Thanks


    -Frank
     
  18. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    Would've been around July 2018 ... where I bought for $132 - down from $150-ish earlier in the year and it's peak in 2015 of over $200

    Looking at last 5 years, it does seem to rise and fall - and they seem to have stabilised somewhat - so will hold and see if they come back. It's not a loss until I lock it in
     
  19. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I've had a look at the substantial holder notices for the Blackrock buying of GOR.

    Tallying the data manually their average for the 7.54% of shares on issue they now hold is somewhere around the $0.84 level. Throughout March though, they were buying in the $0.86 to $1.02 range.

    https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190329/pdf/443w2f7lc8rk35.pdf

    First Gold is scheduled for sometime this quarter. Some people are speculating it will be just before the AGM on 29 May.

    Now the last quarterly stated:
    • Guidance for 2019 gold production of 100,000 to 120,000 ounces (100% basis) at all‐in sustaining costs of between $1,050 and $1,150 per ounce.
    • First gold production remains on target for second half of June 2019 quarter. Gold Road is fully funded to first gold production and forecast operational requirements
    ASIC figures above are in AUD. The gold price is currently around USD $1,270 or AUD $1841 so on an ASIC of AUD $1,150 that's a margin of about AUD $691.

    Note that for the project they are in a 50:50 JV with Gold Fields, but exploration is focused on 100%-owned land. They have significant exploration upside. They are spending $20M on exploration of nearby deposits this year. General strategy is to identify mineable deposits that can be quickly put on a path to production. That means good potential for future production and earnings growth over several years (subject to mineable deposits being defined). You can read up on that in their annual report but also look at their corporate presentations.

    It's worth further research as I think it has good potential to head into the mid-tier gold-miner space in a 3 to 5-year time frame ( $2B+ ), future potential for takeover aside.

    Screen Shot 2019-05-03 at 8.34.26 pm.png
     
  20. Lemmy a fiver

    Lemmy a fiver Well-Known Member

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    Hi @wombat777,

    I hold GOR. Do you currently?
    Bought my first tranche in Dec '15 & have added a few times since.
    My current average in is now $0.6112
    I personally won't be adding further, only as I'd rather speculate on where I 'think' upside % gains will potentially be greater than what GOR will rise % wise in the future.
    Its my belief they won't have any chance to become any sort of stand alone mid-tier producer in a few years.
    They will be swallowed up instead.
    But lets see how it all pans out.