What will stop the BOOM in Sydney and Melbourne

One thing that struck me about Perth is for all the doom and gnashing of teeth surrounding that market, it hasn't really come off a huge amount.



The median house price peaked around $550K in 2015, and are now $510K. From the chatter in the forum, I thought that it made Dublin in 2008 look like a minor blip.

As for the argument between @MichaelW and @MTR about time in the market versus timing the market, it really depends on where and when you were.

If you bought in Sydney or Melbourne anytime in the last decade, you'd probably have doubled your money. In Perth, prices look roughly flat over the same period. But all three still look expensive, and I wouldn't be surprised if nominal prices are lower in 2028 than they are now.

Oh, I suspect that Steve Keen has done OK. He got a high profile from his calls about the GFC. He's a professor at Kingston University in London these days, so he's not exactly slumming it.

 

International Education has been a big earner for our economy. Actually people used to send their students to Australia as a way of getting money out of China in addition to getting their kids an education. People are starting to question the value of it. Investments have become more secure here, local universities improving at a rate of knots, while Australian universities are struggling a bit to compete with other countries. A slow down in China will certainly sting a bit. Chinese property market have kicked us along. Was in Ballarat at New year. There are about 6 new Asian restaurants since I was there in the CBD. Wonder if they will make a living there.

 

Well its official now ..... the boom in Syd and Melb is over. Clearance rates have significantly dropped off, and of course there will be the odd good performer but I think we can clearly see things have changed.

Just shows you need more than one driver for a boom to keep going, immigration alone wont do it.

So what happened?

APRA
Government changes policies on foreign investors to name a few
Government tax changes etc.

So there is now not enough buyers to soak up stock.

MTR

 

@MTR Apparently law of physics applies to Sydney and Melbourne too... The first lesson that investors must learn is that good time does not last forever and vice versa.

I think it might be the time for the other markets to start shinning.

 

hooray the boom is over - let's all buy in Atlanta or logan - forget about other things such as schools, zones or everything else. everything follows cycles.

 

Yes sentiment shifts very quickly when u buy and sell houses like they are stocks, here comes the oversupply, soon fhb will stop complaining about unaffordability.

 

Good luck, inventory in Atlanta is low cant source stock at the moment

Atlanta has a pooulation of over $6M, larger than Melb its chalk and cheese
I think around 7000 people move to Atlanta each month
Headquarters for at least 12 fortune 500 companies

Dont know much about Logan

 

wow - u must be making millions - I gonna sell everything in asia, Europe and aus to invest there.

 

Chill out please no one is comparing, booms are good but we know they dont last forever
We are here to learn not attack what investors buy or where they buy.

 

I learn stuff everyday and not sure which attacks from space you are talking abt - perth is no Melbourne and neither is logan is mt druitt. As for booms - some suburbs have already peaked and ended 3-4 years ago - is not actually front page news. for crying out loud - I know people who are sold sites for 12mil and 9mil last week in Melbourne yet people talk about 5.8 mil houses passing in. we're not trading CFDs on ASX200 where it is daily weekly trends- is more about the quality of asset. Well what do I know.

 

Thats nice
Read the title of the thread

 

After 50 pages, I think you can make what you want from the thread....

Atlanta is falling is the new subject

 

Lol..... I wont be selling

 

It took 50 pages.
No beating around the bush here.

 

and over 70000 views.... prob be included in Sims final stats....so you have not read the Brisbane threads that the big mother

 

LOL -l i’ll be reinvesting to another country maybe Dubai as per standard "dogma" comments

1. Cycles don’t last forever
2. You can rely on one factor alone
3. You only build when there is boom (like perth)
4. Smart investors have been selling out (follow me) only dumb ones buy in melb or Sydney.

 

Back to Melb... one thing I have noticed recently is much more stock coming to market, desirable townhouses coming to market in desirable inner city locations ie Hawthorn, Prahan, not seen this for a long time now.

I have been watching this market for some time now, I expect they will fall back if stock continues to flow on to market

Anyone notice this?

MTR

 

This is one reason why I don't rely on stats, Perth did boom between 2013-14, but stats wont show this unfortunately they are way too broad.
I was buying in all 3 markets during this period, Perth's boom was a shorter time frame 2 years as opposed to Melb and Syd.

 

I think that there was a lot more stock coming onto the market earlier this year in the inner suburbs, but it seems to have slowed the last few weeks.

I'm also seeing a lot of development projects being flipped. Someone bought it a year ago, got the DA, and is now trying to sell for an optimistic price. I suspect that knocking down an old place, and replacing with two townhouses only really works when the market is rising strongly.

 

I know two people who purchased for 1-1.2mil in eastern suburbs of melbourne, spent 100k on them and now due to life changes cant sell.

The next thing is that sharks are out. One bloke wanted 1.3, has had 10 offers but the agent only brought him the highest which was 1.1. Means they would have taken a loss over a 18month period of a fair bit once you factor in the reno and costs. Blood in the water and sharks are looking for it.