What will stop the BOOM in Sydney and Melbourne

Does not mean my life is better Just busier
I am flying back home to Perth this evening and then back to Atlanta on 15 September. It is crazy, missing my dogs...
Not developing in Australia anymore makes no sense.

 

Would trade places

You just don't find good deals like you used to, even in commercial .. sitting on my hands just working hard & saving but want to go to the states!

 

Watching the signs anyone???

The latest news from Housing Industry Association (HIA) reported that sales of new homes across Australia fell 6.9 percent in June, even with sales up in Victoria and Western Australia. Seven percent is a sharp decline, erasing two months of gains and bringing the figure to its lowest point since 2013.

New housing starts are a reflection of demand, especially from investors who have been hammered by tighter lending restrictions from APRA.

This Week’s Preliminary Auction Activity (Week Ending 30 July)

Auction volume increased this week with 1,957 homes on offer across the country, up from 1,748 last week. Last year at this time, only 1,610 properties were auctioned. Due to greater supply giving buyers more choice, it’s likely that the final clearance rate released later this week will be lower than last week’s.

With supply rising across Sydney, buyers pulled the clearance rate down, especially in the city’s South West. Expect this week’s preliminary result of 68 percent to end up even lower once all the results are counted.

Even though Melbourne appeared strong with a clearance rate of 77.2 percent, it’s important to note that last week’s preliminary result also appeared strong at 79.4 percent. By the end of the week, it had dropped to 73.8 percent after all reports were in.

Source: CoreLogic

 

One sign from the news today is Wanda group and other major Chinese companies pulling out of apartments. The Chinese government is apparently cracking down on investment offshore. Article about it here: Hear that whoosh? It's Chinese money pulling out of Sydney property

 

Today's Fin Review also mentions various factors leading to a drop in Chinese IP purchases in Aust. But other than a few ups and downs, I can only foresee our high prices being supported given the vast population of now moderately wealthy Chinese.

 

As I like to say, it's all due to 'em commies speculating in markets all around the world.
Wanda Selling Overseas Asset in Restructuring | Mingtiandi

Their Ponzi system of churning through land, developing and selling units, whilst pushing property prices up with easy money coming from China has been exported and replicated successfully all over the world. This is unsustainable in the long run. Their government is now trying hard to engineer a soft landing back home, but its not gonna be a soft lending for the other foreign markets they have gone and played up.
Can Xi Jinping Defuse China’s Debt Bomb?


IMHO lots of pain coming for Sydney/Melb/Brisbane, especially in the unit market.

Next few months will be very interesting to watch.

 

Got my popcorn ready.

 

@Kangabanga - meanwhile in non-commmie lands

 

There are quite a few developers from Singapore playing in Australia/Melbourne as well. But most are just following the herd and often use reasons such as diversifying their portfolio to justify their expansion overseas. There are some developers playing in London market as well.

They'll all make money following the herd into a rising market. Everyone makes money in a rising market. And most markets in major capital cities have had an unprecedented rise. Of course I would say fueled by the commies.

That's until the market turns then those who don't manage to cash out will be running around like headless chooks trying to find a buyer.

This is probably the biggest baddest mega project by them commies in Malaysia and without their own chinese buyers the sales numbers just wont stack up.
Country Garden looks beyond China

Melbourne's developer's fortunes will depend a lot on what moves Chairman Xi makes. Property prices worldwide will be on a decline for sure if he decides to continue deleveraging the chinese economy and tighten credit for the developers there.

Currently the great ball of chinese money has moved into HK property and some into the various commodity markets in China. I suspect quite a bit somehow has ended up in Bitcoin as well.

 

Lol all Asians are commies from your economic analysis. There are Indians Indonesian Singaporean Vietnamese and many other developers. Following the herd or leading the herd ? Gotto get a map and look beyond china - there are a lot of other countries with coin too not Just China from reading links and websites

 

I agree, apartment market will be hit big time. Already started if investors care to look closely...

 

Apartments esp OTP have always been know to have next to no growth or negative. this has been the case for years interesting article with some interactive graphs

Will Melbourne property prices continue to rise? Five economists predict

 

Those graphs look like a snake shooting venom.

 

So where are we with this, I am currently in US, have I missed anything, is Syd and Melb ticking along or are we seeing some signs of a slow down... anyone?

 

Sydney yes, Melb no.
Although both have come off boom times but Melb still steady increase in particular outer FHB territory.

 

i agree with this.

due to the population growth......melbourne outer h and l is still strong another 12 to 18 months left. apartments in melb are another storey.

Geelong as about 24 months to run

 

What do you recommend doing after the 12-18 months is over @sash ?

 

Personally I am sitting tight at the moment as I have bought quite few in Melb/Geelong....Perth has some incredible bargains in the higher end of the market..if you take a longer term view....issue is rents are very low.

Brisbane also offer opportunities..but it is warming up now....

 

sounds good! only have a couple in wyndham and carrum downs, thinking hold till peak then sell for a PPOR...see how it goes!

 

Where are they...how many did you get...Wyndham Vale is going nuts...so is Carrum Downs......I can see high 5s to low 6 medians there....