What will stop the BOOM in Sydney and Melbourne

This is very interesting. Leaving Melbourne and Sydney aside, how can Hobart (14.4%), Canberra (13.1%) and Adelaide (9.1%) all be ahead of Brisbane, which is Australia's third biggest city, in terms of gross returns?

Especially Hobart? Which admittedly, is a very beautiful city... but only has some 200, 000 people.

 

Starting off a low base?

 

Adelaide is creeping closer to Perth. If Perth drops below Adelaide, is that a signal to buy in Perth?

 

Why would you correlate yearly housing price growth and size of population?

 

Lack of well located land in Hobart is my opinion... @C-mac had it in his thread.

 

Sell a house for the median price in Sydney and buy a house for the median in Hobart and you'll have change of $650k to $700k. Many retirement-age people take this path for a sea or tree change, whilst still having good access to hospitals, etc.

 

Have a read of these links.

I have mentioned before in other posts, Tassie is the black horse. Read threads on Tassie if interested.

While investors are chasing QLD, Adelaide etc.... perhaps they are not paying attention, they are following the herd.

The easiest way to make money in property is to buy in rising markets, and you don't need a crystal ball

'Thousands more workers needed' to serve Tasmania's construction boom

http://www.themercury.com.au/lifest...m/news-story/35f8ac5f3809c38913c3fb6724b5147a

 

Nope its time to look closely at Tassie and what is actually happening on the ground.

 

Yeah, even if Perth is cheaper than Brisbane and Adelaide doesn't make it a good deal. If the market is dead, it is dead. Still a bad time to buy even if it is cheap.

 

You cannot compare to Sydney do you know how dense sydney is with land there is no land within 50km. Between melb and geelong there is so much unused land so they will keep building alot closer. I don't think werribee will move much for the next few years

 

Very true...

I imagine that population size would be a strong driver for house price growth, e.g. greater competition, need, employment hubs, etc.

I agree, this could be a strong point... and the construction boom in Tasmania.

I like this... might consider it myself in 30 years

I agree completely... there is something interesting going on in Tasmania, that's for sure.

I've kept an eye on Brisbane house prices here and there. Did Brisbane boom.... or was it more a case that some pockets grew and others didn't grow all that much at all?

 

Population growth in tandem with housing supply

 

Indeed, however it's useful to note population growth has slowed sharply. It's down from 2.2% to 1.4% since 2009. In combination with emerging oversupply, demand is certainly reducing.

 

I believe Brisbane/QLD is fragmented market, from what I have read some pockets have moved but not sure you would call it a boom, as what we are seeing in Syd and Melb.

QLD is also reliant on mining which would impact on their economy etc. a major factor perhaps why we are not seeing a boom across the State.

If you want to find out whether Tassie is actually booming perhaps you need to find out what is happening on the ground.
Forums are great for leads.................. but to establish what is fact and what is fiction will require lots of phone calls to re agents and finding out where supply is tightening and what product is in demand.

If you live in Tassie of course its much easier. This is how I do my research, I don't buy in my own State Perth at the moment cos its a dead duck so I have no choice but to do the hard yards.

MTR

 

Werribee has already moved significantly over the last 12 months and is still a hot market.

 

where is @sash, pretty sure he has made a killing in this area. Even the ugly ducking on the nose areas will take off in booming markets cos everything else has boomed and suddenly this stuff is a bargain. Not anymore

 

when would an re agent ever tell a potential buyer that it is a slow/dead market? they're always going to say positive things about their own area. unless you know them personally or get lucky i'd prefer just to ask other investors / locals.

Cheers, Elives

 

Networking is the most under rated property tool .... first you make the re agent your friend not your enemy then you nurture this relationship by regular phone calls and you keep them honest because you have at least 4-5 re agents working for you. A little stroking of the ego also goes a long way and you always mention you are a cash buyer and you wont mess them around.

Its worked for me most of the time even when markets have been booming.

MTR

 

Yeah many people forget that Brisbane is still very mining based and new mining investment is still on a downturn despite a bump in some commodity prices this half quarter. The past couple of years have been helped by heavy new LNG investment which is set to wind down in a a big way now. We are probably seeing the tail end of this investment boom now, Perth has been hit much harder due to even more reliance on mining.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...f/news-story/97783a9e61c3ed7a122f702a1ed7d141

Tassie probably has too small an economy/population to have any sort of sustained housing boom, depending mostly on exporting higher end agri products. Plenty of land there as well. Unless for some reason Chinese investors flock there I find it hard to expect any kind of boom happening there. Population growth going negative is a big possibility/risk as well for property. Damn I am still trying to locate my first bottle of Sullivan's Cove whisky

In fact if the chinese stop buying in Syd/Melb those markets would be as dead as Perth.

things under Trump are looking up for both USD and US property, with the upcoming infrastruture investment stimulus coming online soon.

 

I wont comment on Sydney, but certainly Chinese buyers have fallen back in Melb due to recent government policy. How and when and what areas/suburbs will be effected will flow through and perhaps some time in 2017 it will become transparent

MTR