QLD What will Logan and Ipswich do in 2019?

Hi all, everyone knows Sydney and Melbourne have finished their run and are going backwards. We know there's an oversupply of units in the 3 major capital cities, and we know house prices in Brisbane are doing well.

But what are your predictions on what the Logan and Ipswich regions will do in 2019?

 

I hope they will perform well I bought an investment for 270k in 2015 now worth 300k in Logan and bought one January this year in Ipswich

 

Not great.

 

My feeling is roughly flat-line, give or take a few percentage points.

Hard to see drivers for strong growth, southern investors pulling back, credit tighter, sentiment poor. Positives are that the medians are still so low, many dwellings at replacement value, still solid net migration and Brisbane as a whole has held up well so far which I think is encouraging.

 

Yes I agree I like the good rental yields in Ipswich and Logan , both of my properties have a yield of 6%

 

Do people really invest in Logan/Ipswich for capital growth? They are so far out of Brisbane CBD and there are plenty of better suburbs within the middle and outer rings of Brisbane that are yet to be developed. Why would anyone want to live all the way out in Ipswich/Logan when most of the jobs are in Brisbane and there are plenty of lifestyle friendly suburbs still yet to be fully developed? There arent many jobs in Logan/Ipswich

 

I predict they will meet up on some reality show and tie the knot.

 

I reckon that most areas of Logan and and to some extend Ipswich are investor driven. These areas are similar to areas around Caboolture. I can't see these areas growing..as a lot of Sydney and Melbourne investors jumped in. I think inner areas of Brisbane..and parts of Moreton Bay...Cleveland/Wynnum have better growth drivers as they are near water.

Too many young people jumped in on pipe dream of all the young investors getting into lower socio Brisbane just based on yields. Now they might struggle as there is a lot of rentals...and prices have not gone up. They are going up. I am absolutely gob smacked by a lot buyers putting clients in these areas...it is pure madness. It is only feathering the nests of these buyers agents and other parties with vested interests.

I am not saying that Logan won't have growth but it won't be huge...over the next few years. As FHB buys in Brisbane have much better choices to live.

 

I think certain areas of Logan will do ok but it needs to be looked at as serving a purpose within a persons portfolio. Me personally am in the midst of a purchase that I feel will offset some of the holding costs from a higher CG property elsewhere. I don’t need crazy growth even though it would be nice. I’m also looking to hold long term.
I also feel a lot of gains can be made on the way in. Getting a good deal in these areas is paramount. Also the right product. Decent houses with good land content is the way to go. Targeting families in the area. Lots of value ad potential too if you’re a bit more active.
The area serves a purpose for a certain budget but I think just being a bit more diligent is the way to go.
As @sash said I think a lot of southern investors thinking they can throw a dart and buy anything to get growth just won’t happen.

 

In Logan I’m expecting nothing to occur until the next federeral election (6 months) then should see steady five year growth around 5% per year on the back of good growth 8% inner or mid ring brissie suburbs which some would say isn’t flash but tied into a decent yield I will be happy to take that.

 

Sydney and Melbourne dropping and the whole of Australia being affected by credit issues and general poor sentiment about property Ipswich and Logan are third rate suburbs with a lot of investors especially Logan I actually see these dropping possibly up to 5% I see better suburbs of Brisbane dropping in 2019 on average. I really don't know it's crystal balls stuff but that's my feeling. I can't see Brisbane doing too much for a while because with Sydney and Melbourne dropping if Brisbane actually grew it wouldn't make sense it's supposed to be in third place.
I think there are some great opportunities in the Logan area if you can get at a very good price I've taken a look at some last year and did see some good ones that got snapped up from a long-term point of view there's some good options if you know what to look for and get in low.
I know some on here like to underplay the influence of mining on Brisbane but you actually need a decent mining boom to pull Brisbane up. That's when you'll see decent growth.

 

This thread reminds me of the don't buy in Frankston North discussions 10+yrs ago on Somersoft. 13yrs later, tripled the purchase price, cost virtually $0 to hold at 100% finance initially.

 

Franston North...was a no brainer...there was limited supply of land in the SE of Mebourne.

Logan...has a lot of new estates....and Brisbane people typically avoid lower socio Logan...

How many in Frankson North did you buy?

Also it depends on one's timeframes...I need stuff which will perform in 5 years or less...

 

Hi Sash, just the 1 in Frankston North, then went elsewhere(I've only bought twice in one area, and have since sold one off). At the moment i am buying stuff i can pay off in the next few years that will generate income (for the wife who doesnt work) or can be dual occ'd down the track. Will dual occ Frankston North in the next few years.
In terms of Logan, there are lots of areas within, some good, some bad, personally i like Beenleigh for the Bris/GC transit situation - ie one works north one works south type couple. If you are close to transport(trains) in a reasonable neighbourhood, with good land and below replacement cost and get a decent yield(ie self funding) then happy to sit it out and take the yield.

For me i am on a high income from job, and want to build rental income (preferably to my wife who doesnt work) while having somewhere to park excess cash from my job so both these areas suit my criteria at the moment. Dont plan on selling at least until i retire where i might do a staggered sell off across FY's to minimise CGT, although with Labor likely to hike it, i may never sell.
I'm not operating anywhere near the scale of some of here and only have 5 IP's currently (+geared) and a PPOR(paid for) but have been doing this for 20 yrs+. With my latest buy i am operating at an LVR(incl PPOR) of approx 25%, very conservative.

 

You could so do much more....CF is the oil.....but CG is the engine.....

 

I know, time poor, cash rich. I've done pretty well on the CG(largely unrealised) side too but could have done a lot more if i was willing to dedicate the time and take the risks. I have a wife, two teenage kids, a mother in law im housing and elderly parents that all require my time and attention. Can't complain,but I let the GFC and job uncertainty spook me too much 10 yrs ago.

 

I think this is a massive factor often overlooked. It’s why so many people will have different opinions on certain areas. Some can hold for numerous cycles and is a no brainer. Others can see retirement on the hill. Just another example why some strategies may work for some and not others

 

No it is not a no brainer...I learnt the hard way......just look at Mt Druitt....you had a few people crowing how well they did.

If they did not get out by now their profits have dropped again....Logan is even worse it will go up but not as much....

 

May be CF would be the engine in current and future lending scenario?

 

How far to drive from Woodridge to Brisbane CBD?