What to expect from the housing market in 2017 and beyond.

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Sackie, 20th Jun, 2017.

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  1. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    An economist that makes sense to me... A first time for everything. Gotta buy a lottery ticket now, must be my lucky day!


     
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  2. Bunlee

    Bunlee Well-Known Member

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    I am definitely no economist, not even a gifted amateur by any stretch. However, if I had to choose a current analysis that reflects my own view, this video would be it.

    Expect very small increases in prices
    No bubble as such but significant extended gains in recent history
    Offsets / reserves more the norm
    New apartment builds putting varying pressure on prices in Bris, Melb & Syd
    Perth still in a bit of strife
    RBA rate stable but banks having unilateral lash at rate increases, esp for Investment.

    Pretty much what In have read in these forums is in the same neighbourhood.

    Good analysis in my view.

    Best to all
     
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  3. Piston_Broke

    Piston_Broke Well-Known Member

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    The banks are preparing for what they believe will be a recession and eventual interest rates rises.
     
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  4. jins13

    jins13 Well-Known Member

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    These days, I am seeing some properties stay on the market alot longer and price reductions in Sydney. That's a telling sign but of course good stock seem to go still.
     
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  5. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    Why will interest rates rise in a recession?
     
  6. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    If there is no or low inflation, rates should not need to rise apart from preventing further growth/blowout of credit taken mainly for housing.

    Banks can raise rates also to keep or improve profit and or strengthen position, and I think we already seen a combo of this.
     
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  7. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    ... and what does this point to???? Me thinks softening of the property markets Australia wide.
     
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  8. Bunlee

    Bunlee Well-Known Member

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    No doubt a softening of most markets. I think the economist was talking around 2% growth levels - impossible to predict but definite softening in the mid term I would think. Can see that it is possible for prices in Sydney moving down a consistently similar amount

    The sentiment 'tide' has generally turned on this forum and has one for quite a while, eg, more interest in shares (specifically LICs), movement from IO to P&I, deleveraging (selling assets), lower LVRs, buying 'cash cows', etc.

    The above examples indicate to me that there are many prudent investors here that have had an eye to the future for quite some time.

    Markets come and go, the nature of the game for 'investors' like me is to still be well in the game during and after that change process - a normal occurrence. I do this by maintaining my current holdings, reducing debt, increasing investment liquidity and moderately DCA into Aus & Int'l shares.

    Not very sexy.

    All the best
     
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  9. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    @Bunlee Don't you know.....:D

    ner.jpg
     
    Last edited: 20th Jun, 2017
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  10. Hwangers

    Hwangers Well-Known Member

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    I only invest in property so I can show off at friends BBQ's tbh
     
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  11. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    They probably wanna roast you too :p
     
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  12. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    dude check the video release date, 20 dec 2016, outdated

    but were her predictions correct?

    I am sure she didnt have the chance to see the APRA changes, the bank rate rises and now the price drops in sydney/Melb. Or else she would have had a different analysis.
     
  13. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    I know the date is 6 months ago. She is talking about 2017. Personally I think much of what she said is accurate for 2017 to date. Some analysis may be different given more recent changes but in the main, I don't think its too bad. Just my take,
     
  14. Gavin Ng

    Gavin Ng Well-Known Member

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    What's everyone's thoughts on finance for investing in the next couple of years? Will finance for ip's be impossible to get? Will the IO rates be ridiculously high and force investors to go PI and therefore the numbers don't stack up anymore? It's already looking that way.

    In a situation now where there might be an opportunity to build our dream ppor acquiring a site well below market value, but will probably compromise our borrowing capacity for IP's moving forward, but don't see the point in protecting our borrowing capacity for IP's to sacrifice an opportunity for our dream PPOR when it's going to be impossible or unfeasible to invest anyway.

    Fast forward few years from now, credit storm clouds subside and it will be easier to get loans, ppor will be built and equity can be drawn out to accumulate IP's again. What are everyone’s opinions on this?
     
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