What if??? Shares

What if the market crashes, no idea? what then, how does cost averaging work? Will this save the bacon

 

What if we didn’t even care

 

People flock back to real estate and start new booms

 

Does not save your bacon if:
- you need the money in the potentially years before prices rise again
- you don’t have the stomach to keep holding
- you cannot stomach buying in the down market ‘cause it may “keep falling”

 

Thats why youse don't keep everthin' in one basket......

 

This bloke explains it pretty well.

It’s no different than buying at the supermarket if you want it and its cheap buy it when the price is down.
The same as real estate in Atlanta cheaper prices and better return.
This bloke explains it pretty well.

 

This is a very timely question. In the big picture (thinking in years) my conviction from the technical and fundamental viewpoint is that we are in a new LONG term equities bull run post GFC however it seems many world market indices are nearing completion of a medium term (think in months) impulse wave set and are due for a medium term correction.

US is the key market to pay attention to in these situations as it still tends to be the dominant influencer. If the correction does come (and as per posts in other threads I suspect we are nearing the end of a medium term top) then this coming correction may well be the best and last opportunity this century to make a major accumulation play into the long term bull run at this price zone.

It may look scary as it's happening but for me this is potentially one of the most exciting opportunities of a lifetime and I will be getting really busy if it does play out

One simple way to protect yourself against a US market fall without selling anything or using a put option is to purchase some BBUS on the ASX which is the equivalent of shorting the SP500 with 2x leverage.

No advice

 

I have been slowly accumulating for a while and held on during last gfc. I purchase when I have income, also we have property in and out of smsf.

The shares produce dividends and the property produces rent. Shares produced dividends during gfc. The shares purchased in the mid 90s did not revert to their original purchase price, remained higher. I continued to have DRP as my DCA, bought more when offered a share purchase plan.

I am not a trader in either shares or property. I am long term buy and hold taking profits if needed to pay down debt, so I can accumulate more shares. I am done with accumulating more property.

I will have rents and dividends next major correction. I will not sell my assets. I will also have ready cash. This is the slow accumulation plan, things are on track and I paying down loans is increasing equity position. The return on shares is higher for me as their are no agents repairs etc.

Traders may get caught out next correction as will those who overleverage. That will happen in either shares or property.

 

They never crash all at the same time from experience ,with equities sometimes when you combine political events-terrorism-falling business confidence -and as we will see a fluctuation foreign exchange rates..

Then you combine the oversupply of apartment's that don't value up and the likelihood that interest rates will trend up over the next few years and will just drop more.

The only way when the equities markets stall ,and drop over 50% like with the "GFC",it's just a matter of watching and waiting and be a very "good listener",as no-one will ever know the bottom base line slow turn around and have the cash ready because that's when the day too day information has the power to multiply
very quickly ..

All one has to do is look at the price of bitcoin over the past 12 weeks ,and how much the value can drop in one night..imho..

 

its also just like a property market,

shares are graded too.. blue chip is called blue chip for a reason.. they will be hurt by a GFC,, but always recover quick and "higher". hence warren buffets idea of investing in good profit making long term business with CA.

thats why they say.. dont speculate

"short term" Share price fluctuation does not do anything to the business (ability to market/sell/produce etc).. only people who get hurt is traders or people who bought just before the crash (bad luck) ?


when the gfc hits.. BUY BUY BUY.. buy when there is blood on the street.. there is where the real ***** crispy juicy bacon is

 

crispy AND juicy ?

Shut up, and take my money !

 

Great points. Also, focus on the dividend rates/trend rather than the share price ( apart from if you're looking for a bargain)

 

One analyst, I think that it was perma-bear Albert Edwards of Societe Generale, reckoned that the stock market could be in a "melt up" phase. By this, he means that prices could rise by 50% over the next year or two, before crashing spectacularly.

So if you can hold your nerve, you could make good money before we hit the top.

The other theory that's going around is the Everything Bubble, which states that whereas things normally get out of hand in one sector, this time it's in everything. So shares, properties, bonds, crypto-currencies, vintage cars and watches, and anything else you can think of are priced outside of their fundamentals.

If that goes pop, it could be really, really messy.

 

Had some trouble finding this last night

 

Mmmm bitcoin.... no interest in this

 

Haha good old Charlie!

Can see he gets frustrated with stupid questions and doesn’t soften his tone.

Says what Warren wants to say but is too polite.

 

Posted 24DEC17

Posted 11JAN18

Updated Chart

Make your own mind up but I am seeing early signs of confirmation of what I have been saying here since December.

This is a monthly chart (very long term view). All the circle square and fan line geometry on this chart was created in Dec 2010 when the seed vector wave 1 was complete. Price is now approaching the most significant resistance area on the chart, the end of harmonic growth phase 5 at the major red circles.

A couple of months ago I published very similar info on Bitcoin arriving at an end of wave 5 with specific timing and price levels. You now know what happened when Bitcoin hit this zone at the same major red circles. Just sayin'

The fact that the Elliott wave 5 is nearing typical completion targets right there 8 years after I first constructed this chart could not be more telling IMO.



SPY showing early evidence of rejection of the exact price and time area forecast posted in Jan. This is coinciding with a lot of early bearish signs in other world markets. Will be posting more about technical picture of world markets in another thread shortly, IMO we have an important macro environment developing Jan/Feb 2018.

Not here to convince anyone of anything this is only my view, DYOR.

No advice.

 

What do you think the dip will be like @Alex Straker and how long?

 

@ZOMG That is of course the million $ question, unfortunately not enough bars on the chart to answer with any accuracy yet.

Only worthwhile hint we have for now is timing for a retracement of wave 5 (marked as V - which should also be a wave A of the larger context full set) has strong probability of lasting until at least October 2018. This is a very long term chart so expect to see many minor swings on the lower time frames on the way down. A full ABC retracement pattern may not be over until 2020. If the script plays out both the low of A and the low of C will be the next major accumulation opportunities. I will post more specific expectations as the price action develops.