What if Labor got in?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by albanga, 21st May, 2020.

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  1. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    Rewind 12 months and hypothetically at the polling booths we had a labor win.
    Soon after negative gearing and CGT exemptions gets removed for new purchases.
    We then get hit with Covid19.

    Whilst I know it’s way too early to even see the effects on the current property market. What are people’s thoughts on where it would be and heading under a labor government?

    Personally the only word that comes to mind for me is Armageddon.
     
  2. JamesP

    JamesP Well-Known Member

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    Unfortunately 6 years of government over the past 24 years dictates that we are not allowed to have a brand new shiny labor.

    Can't buy and flip successfully if the current market never crashes. It need to crash to boom. It needs to crash so I can buy more! The government has been interfering and protecting developers/the property market far too often. Until the rba and government stop interfering and let the market take it's natural course, all investors can do is sell or watch properties barely grow over the next few years

    No pain no gain!
     
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  3. spludgey

    spludgey Well-Known Member

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    Labor is more likely to give stimulus to those at the lower end of the socio economic scale. Those people will spend their stimulus, so I would not think that we would have had a weaker economy under Labor. It's true that they likely wouldn't have focused on keeping housing prices high, but neither has the current bunch...
     
  4. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

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    Double the dole would have happened much sooner.

    significant increase in immigration causing house prices to skyrocket and the construction industry to flourish

    increase in interest rates benefitting self funded retirees

    dividend imputation credits, negative gearing and CGT would have been tinkered with and not as bad as first planned.

    Higher wages
     
  5. Archaon

    Archaon Well-Known Member

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    These two are contradictory.
     
  6. spludgey

    spludgey Well-Known Member

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    How?

    Sort of fitting:
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Archaon

    Archaon Well-Known Member

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    Nice strawman.
     
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  8. spludgey

    spludgey Well-Known Member

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    It might be, but immigrants tend to be higher educated than the general populace. Just talk to non anglo taxi drivers about their credentials.
     
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  9. Archaon

    Archaon Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG] Australias-permanent-migrant-intake.png

    Your anecdotal evidence doesn't really factor in i'm afraid, the Australian economy hasn't been growing for some time, and artificial numbers propped up by immigration wont lead to wage growth, anymore than it will help your tax driver get a job in his specified field.
     
  10. spludgey

    spludgey Well-Known Member

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    Nor do your graphs. Correlation does not prove causation.
    Actually, doesn't the immigration one show that a high proportion are "skilled"?
     
    Last edited: 21st May, 2020
  11. Archaon

    Archaon Well-Known Member

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    Data at least goes a ways towards trying to find reasons, ask your taxi driver what he thinks.

    Edit: Besides, you've unwittingly proven my point in your stereotypical way.

    We bring in skilled migrants for jobs that don't exist, so they are forced to find any work they can, not exactly utilising their medical degrees etc now are we?
     
    Last edited: 21st May, 2020
  12. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    Thankfully we were spared from Bill Shorten and Chris Bowen. Things would be much worse.
     
  13. inertia

    inertia Well-Known Member

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    As much as I hate to say it, Scomo and Gladys (I'm in NSW, cant comment much on the other states), have not done a bad job. Sure, I could snipe things here and there, and I may not necessarily agree with all actions taken, but credit where it is due. They will be able to ride this wave for a while, and so long as the economy at least starts to show signs of growth towards the next election, they will sail through.

    One thing I will say though is that I have not heard much from Labor through this, which is kind of a good thing - unless there were major screw ups, whiney complaints aren't really necessary. Libs do a much better job of opposition though, and if Labor was in power I can guarantee that the Libs would be smashing them (regardless of results).

    What happens now will be interesting. Labor has still not offered any leaders worth voting for, and their "policies" are too confusing and easily undermined to get mass appeal. I expect LNP will continue with the typical neocon approach to recovery which will sound great, but only achieve widening of the wealth gap. Trickle down economics, austerity measures, IR reform. I'll be very happy if I'm wrong.

    Cheers,
    Inertia.
     
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  14. Stoffo

    Stoffo Well-Known Member

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    Not quite..........
    Some (not all) are very highly educated, they like many immigrate to make a better life for their families only to find that their qualification(s) aren't recognized in Aus, so in turn they take any job to pay the bills while they study at night to bridge their qualification to be recognized here ;)

    I don't particularly like any political party :p
    Under the two party prefered system we really only have 2 to choose from :oops:
    With the minors selling off their preferences :rolleyes:
    Who would have been worse, Labor or Lib, BOTH, either way I expect to get :eek:
     
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  15. spludgey

    spludgey Well-Known Member

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    I would have to agree on Gladys, though I feel Scomo's leadership was very much lacking, particularly in the beginning.
    Don't get me wrong, I think it's a good outcome for the country and I think we can be very happy with it, but clear decisive leadership looks very different.
    *gazes dreamily across the Tasman Sea...
     
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  16. Melbourne_guy

    Melbourne_guy Well-Known Member

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    Same. I can't/won't vote for any party that provides Govt subsidies to those earning $110000 pa. I have no issue in helping genuine low earners (even unlikely $110000 pa be considered as low earner??) but it's grossly unfair to tax myself (and others in a similar situation) only to give it to those earning a good deal more than me.
     
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  17. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    A better scheme would have been implemented - all above average wage earners would be required to participate in a scheme dubbed "sponsor a doley" whereby you'd have 9.5% of your income siphoned off to support those receiving the dole.

    Of course, to qualify to receive the additional benefits, one would need to be long-term unemployed, supporting a drug habit (alcohol or ciggies will do), have a multitude of semi-related sprogs to different partners and be living rent-free (care of Covid-19 holiday scheme).
     
    Last edited: 21st May, 2020
  18. Jezzah

    Jezzah Well-Known Member

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    From 2014-2016 about 76% of 457 visas were issued to migrants from India. Of this group a relatively high proportion were approved at the extremely low base salary of $53,900 or less. Which is lower than the $54,000 median starting salary for a graduate under the age of 24.

    The median wage for all Australians (including everyone classed as unskilled) is $57,200. However the Temporary Skilled Migration Income Threshold (TSMIT) wage floor is set at $53,900.

    So how can we claim that we are bringing in hard to find skilled employees if we pay them so little? The argument that Australian's don't want to do the job is not correct. The answer is Indian IT service companies land large contracts here in Australia and sponsor low cost migrants as intra-company transferees…

    Also I am not trying to poke at one group of people here but trying to use an example to point out the flaws in the system.
     
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  19. Primary341

    Primary341 Well-Known Member

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    If ALP had won, their proposed changes to NG/CGT wouldn't have passed the Senate.
     
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  20. Peter_Tersteeg

    Peter_Tersteeg Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Prior to the New Zealand shootings in the mosques, JA wasn't particularly popular, she was likely to loose the next election. That tragedy created a leadership opportunity and she performed brilliantly. It's hard to say if the NZ gun reforms introduced will make any real difference (still have a huge gun ownership culture), but she certainly looked good with a constant sad face for the cameras.

    Add in a volcano then a worldwide health crisis, she's had further opportunity to demonstrate leadership and she's done this extremely well. Her decisions probably haven't been perfect, but they've been better than most.

    I'm not saying I don't like her, just pointing out that many leaders are made or broken in a crisis. Had the last 18 months been fairly mundane, New Zealand would likely be facing a change of government in the next election.