What happens when ALP wins the election

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Dean Collins, 19th May, 2018.

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  1. Dean Collins

    Dean Collins Well-Known Member

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    Was listening to a BI podcast - Paul Colgan on Twitter

    Around the 25 min mark gets interesting......"What happens when the ALP wins the election".

    Thoughts....from the PC community?
     
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  2. TSK

    TSK Well-Known Member

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    No one likes change, especially if it impacts them negatively. As they mention, it'll probably affect Sydney and Melbourne most and other areas will be fine. No one wants a hard crash and making changes such as only new development gets neg gearing is a good move in my opinion; stimulates construction and hopefully pushes cities up rather than out. It astounds me that people believe that the "right" are better economic managers (even noticed a couple of new corp writers saying such), and they certainly not better at the social side of things.
     
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  3. D.T.

    D.T. Specialist Property Manager Business Member

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    Lnp has to clean it up again
     
  4. TSK

    TSK Well-Known Member

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    *rolls eyes*
     
  5. Pete Arendt

    Pete Arendt Well-Known Member

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    I think it is harder to gauge these days with the heightened levels of corruption. I certainly believe there is more corruption in the Liberal ranks.

    The trouble with corruption (or Grey gifts as the pollies like to call them) is they come back to bite you. As a government you may accept a donation of $10 million for a toll road, but the cost to the transport industry and the greater economy could be in the tunes of $100's of millions.

    Another example is cutting funding to the Prudential Regulator. There are two types of corruption. One where you get caught and one where you don't. The government cuts funding to APRA so they wind back surveillance on the banks. Chair Dr Laker says in 2014, “Down the track, cumulative effects of efficiency dividends can undermine our ability to provide a certain intensity of supervision," and warns a corrupt Hockey (Treasurer for sale: Joe Hockey offers privileged access) Next we have the safest banking system in the world, as there is no detectable fraud and corruption (no, fraud and corruption does in-fact exists, just the Watch Dog is now asleep in the kennel muzzled).

    Come 2018, Royal Commission into the banking sector. It turns out there is corruption in every part of the business, from reports to Austrac and ATMs accepting laundered money, financial advice, subprime and dodgy home loans and now even kids Dollarmites accounts!!

    This is now likely to lead to quite an abrupt credit crunch. Had APRA had the resources back in 2014, the housing market wouldn't now be under threat. And you can't blame Labor on this one.
     
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  6. Rolf Latham

    Rolf Latham Inciteful (sic) Staff Member Business Plus Member

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    When implies surety

    Ta

    Rolf
     
  7. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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  8. hobartchic

    hobartchic Well-Known Member

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    Any downturn in housing can be blamed on both parties for delaying the recession we should have had in 2008. Labour could have done something then instead of inflaming a debt inspired binge. The Liberal party are trying to aim for a slow unwind with minimal impact on families. With tightening credit and rising interest rates via the US a crash in asset prices is a matter of time to hit general consciousness.
     
  9. Ran Gus

    Ran Gus Well-Known Member

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    A bit like how they 'fixed' the NBN? :):)
     
  10. Pete Arendt

    Pete Arendt Well-Known Member

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    What effect do you think this will have on the negative gearer?

    Most are feting at the moment with the prospect of a ALP win next year and the abolishing of NG.

    With the amount of household debt we carry, many suggest it could be 10 to 15 years before we get interest rates back to a normal setting. This means the housing market could experience no to slight declines in growth for the next 10 to 15 years as interest rates are nudged higher.

    Would this be the equivalent of abolishing negative gearing? Or would Negative Gearers still chose to lose money each week on the shortfall of rent, and then sell in 10 years at a capital loss? I know they say negative gearers are made up of financially illiterate Mum and Dads, but surely after a couple of years with no prospect of growth, they will cotton on?
     
  11. TSK

    TSK Well-Known Member

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    I think you'll find that coalition would have done the same (eventually), they only quibbled over the amount. It's easy to look back and say the alp should have spent less but at the time it was the best option and one we were recognised positively with globally. As far as thinking that a recession may have been a better outcome is a little odd imo.
     
  12. TSK

    TSK Well-Known Member

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    Don't start me on that Charlie foxtrot....to paraphrase Windsor "do once,do it right, do it with fibre". Coalition cocked up Telstra privatisation big time by selling telecom as a vertical integrated unit... should have been broken up between retail and wholesale....we are all suffering for that shortsightedness.
     
  13. hobartchic

    hobartchic Well-Known Member

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    I said it at the time. So I'm not just looking back. A massive asset inflation from that behaviour was inevitable along with the loss of assets, and opportunity, of the debt reliant.
     
  14. hobartchic

    hobartchic Well-Known Member

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    I do not know that it will have much affect on negative gearing in the short to medium term. It will help keep tenants in infrastructure and health jobs and bolster related services jobs. All their strategy does is contain and limit fall out.

    I would expect NG on housing to be limited in the next few years regardless of party in power.

    Tightening of credit and higher interest rates will have a greater impact.
     
  15. Propertunity

    Propertunity Well-Known Member

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    In my opinion governments of all persuasions are largely irrelevant to wealth creation. If you’re going to invest from the time say you are 20 to say 60 just to pick a number, then you will likely have many different governments to deal with over that time. You just have to make adjustments to your strategy as necessary.
     
  16. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    I fretted prior to the last election that the ALP was a certainty. So, I massively increased our NG situation as the ALP stated it would be grandfathered. Then MT gets up and wins :eek:.

    Morale of the story:- Don’t believe all the ******** in the political press, especially BS’s BS. The political world we live in these days is just so unpredictable. No one knows.

    We have been negative gearers for 30 years. We will continue for a little while yet. I always thought we were a “financially illiterate Mum and Dad”. I am glad to see the “financially literate politicians” have tagged us as such, especially given how well they spent our tax dollars ;).

    I left home with $50 to my name. Now we are self-funded retirees (been so for nearly 8 years), with no intention of getting the Aged Pension.

    i just wish there were more financially illiterate Mum and Dads like us :D.