What Does Yardney Have to Say???

I've been researching all these property experts including Michael Y and finding that the experts have diverged into 2 camps:
1 Camp 1: The Sydney/ Melbourne centric investment grade long time frame investors. The people in this camp talk about time in the market, evidence based notion that properties in inner Sydney and Melbourne on average perform better over a long period of time over a consistent basis. They like character homes. People in this camp include Michael Y, the property couch ( Ben and Bryce), the elephant in the room ( Veronica and Chris), Stuart Weymes ( Investopoly), Rich Harvey etc. They would say that if you can't get investment grade you shouldn't invest in property or look at other asset classes. Camp 1 people see camp 2 people as risky speculators. They also believe that it's the high growth of inner suburbs is what allows you to build equity so you can go again or sell of when you retire. They see lower areas as bad investments because they are low income areas with perhaps challenging remnants and I can see their point.
2. Camp 2: These are the more Australia wide investors who believe timing the market, buying properties at the lower third of the market so the rent covers the debt, and researching areas based on DSR, infrastructure and economic factors as well as gentrification. People in this camp include Terry R Margaret L, Simon P, Anna P etc. Lot of people in this camp feel that the inner city theory is not true especially when a market is in a downturn and that expensive properties are less likely to increase in value because less people can offord them.
Camp 1 to me Is a hard one because I'm not able to afford those properties even if they perform better because I have to fork out too much of my own cash. Camp 2 to me seems more affordable but with my level of experience it may feel more riskier.
Interestingly I have always found Michael contactable and he always replies questions on his podcast and he has good investor psychology tips. I also think he does much of his own thing compared to the others in terms of media relations with other property commentators.

 

I somewhat agree with your post however would just like to point out Michael Yardney (metropole) have been buying in many middle ring Brisbane suburbs for a long time, Holland park, Mt gravat, more recently northside Stafford heights and chermside west. Very affordable area's around the Mid 5s and not what is classed as Inner ring expensive by any means

 

Just thought I would attach this link on this thread for those interested

How low can you go? Data shows impact of property downturn in your suburb

 

Yes, I heard this, I think his focus is also developing property? or his company were doing this at one point

 

2009

Michael Yardney, director of Metropole Property Investment Strategists says there is no reason why the large majority of investors who make an educated purchase in 2009, will not see the value of that property double within the next seven to 10 years (or one full property cycle).

"In order to examine the factors which have had an impact on property prices doubling every seven to 10 years, you need to look back at history and the longer you look back, the more accurately the seven to 10 rule actually does play out," says Yardney.
How long does it take for your property to double in value?

2018
But the myth that you can just buy any property and it will double every 7 to 10 years is just that – a myth
Properties double in value every 7 to 10 years | Common Investor Mistakes [Video]

 

Sometimes you can double your money in a much shorter time frame, its dependent on whether you get in just at the cusp of a rise or at the end of the peak, will have a huge impact on performance/timeframe.

For the investors who jumped into Perth market in 2001 dependent on suburb could take as little as 3 years to double your money, what happened to me. Just dumb luck really..

Last Melb and Syd last boom cycle could also do much shorter time frame, but its dependent on when you jumped in.

Then again if you look at Perth today, many suburbs have not recovered from 2007 peak/crash, NO GROWTH for 11 years.... forget doubling..... ouch

 

Couple of points:
1. There is only so many inner Sydney & Melbourne properties.
2. Camp 1 is right about growth over the long term. But my findings were that 'long term' in this instance is about 15 to 20 years. You can actually beat the inner city over this time=e.g. Corio 6.63% per annum (over 15 years) versus St. Kilda 5.63% per annum (over 15 years).
If I can get superior growth than the inner city in under that 15 year timeframe, then by the time their property 'takes off to its natural high level' then I could have two properties or even three or four.
3. I would argue that there are some who work in both camps and some who are subcategories within the camps=e.g. Ian Ugarte's rooming house business
4. The unfortunate fact is that some people's jobs, passion and lifestyles mean they will never be able to afford Camp 1 without at least Camp 2's help or yes other asset classes (which in the case of shares I think the majority of the population would put as harder to get to grips with than property).

 

Fast forward..... we now see a broad boom

I note rental returns in Syd/Melb significantly falling, while other States in main soaring

Australia’s housing market is in the midst of a broad-based boom

 

I wonder if a higher proportion of Syd/Melb investments are held by residents of those same cities?

Why that might be relevant is that the higher entry point to invest necessitates either a wealthier or higher income investor in the first place. Those same investors tend to be able to bear tighter yields as well as benefit more from both neg gearing and CGT relief (as higher rate taxpayers).

 

WOW Darwin... what a stand out performance!

 

I'm not sure the situation will reverse DRASTICALLY if/when borders open and migrants and tourists return...bc a sizeable number of expats will take off again, so the net impact might be fairly muted.

 

good point

i think the ABS showed somewhere that sunny QLD is the only state where the share of IPs is owned disproportionately by non-residents of that state

people love the ideal of a rental in QLD, i guess because they think they might move there one day or use for hols

 

Interesting times ahead.... market rising is hurting.......are they going to turn the tap off

Now Talk of interest rates rises??,

 

Easiest way to slow market is to tighten finance further????

 

Nope, Lowe had “Draghi” moment yesterday, low interest rates are here to stay.

 

Yes, the fate of property prices is in APRA hands. This again, I think they will let it run before the inevitable influx of overseas migrants when they reopen floodgate. Yes, the government doesn’t want to sell the country’s property short.

and why would they want to open the floodgate? Australia is underpopulated and population is aging. Sooner or later we will need this to boost growth...

 

Old news.... there are two ways to turn tap off.... easiest is actually finance regulations, happened before and talk its easiest way
Interest rates the other

 

AUD another issue..... its in dangerous waters