What Does Yardney Have to Say???

Agree makes him no different, dont waste time on guru predictions most get it wrong

Adelaide ..... hows the economy tracking?
Are yiu seeing lots of developers in this market?
Immigration hows this tracking
Jobs. Jobs. Jobs.... whats hsppening here

Just throwing a few out there.... be interested on why you think Adelaide will perform well over next 2-5 years? What are the drivers/inducators

 

As posted above, its trending in the right direction. And i believe it will gain momentum with the many defence, agri and industrial projects coming on line.

Yeah that could do with a tick up.

Imo where not going to see boom numbers, but i strongly believe there are undervalued pockets in Adelaide's North and west currently. And with tight vacancies/high yields this makes for a low risk hold with at the very least steady growth to come.

 

As for the economy:

South Australia's economic upturn lifting commercial property markets, agents say

SOUTH AUSTRALIA’S ECONOMIC UPTURN LIFTING COMMERCIAL PROPERTY MARKETS, AGENTS SAY

"Forget about riding on the sheep’s back – for South Australia it’s all about jumping on the ship’s deck.

The South Australian economy appears to be finally turning north after the federal government confirmed in June that British defence giant BAE would build nine frigates in Adelaide as part of the federal government’s $35 billion shipbuilding program.

The decision is expected to create 1500 direct jobs at Osbourne, in Adelaide’s north, when the project starts in 2022. Thousands of other positions are expected to flow from the project’s use of Australian steel.

It came on top of an earlier win with French firm Naval Group securing a $50 billion contract to build Australia’s next generation of submarines in Adelaide. The submarines will be constructed from 2022-23.

CBRE director Andrew Bahr said the defence sector along with resources and health was underpinning the first significant growth in Adelaide in years."

 

Hearing the phrase "soft landing" gives me flashbacks.

 

Did Japan and Ireland follow the same economic path? Japan lost a decade. Did Ireland?

Will Australia follow the same path as Ireland? I suggest it won't based on the scale of overbuilding in Ireland vs the scale of overbuilding in Australia. Time will tell but it's hard to see the Australian property market collapsing like the Irish property market did considering Perth has already corrected and Brisbane didn't boom.

 

Ain't gonna happen. It's a fantasy .

Whyd you think all the Irish coming here to work/live and we're not flocking to Ireland lol

Demand to live in Oz is massive. Now more than ever . Oz real estate as a whole will be fine.

 

Well people often bring up Japan but I'm not sure you can put it in the same boat as bubbles collapsing in Ireland, Spain or USA. I think the latter three recovered much faster because they were advanced economies. Japan has a developing economy when its bubble burst, and it had massively overshot its growth and as its middle class developed, too many people went on a borrowing binge and often through the shadow banking system. Japan also tried to stoke its economy with some pretty extreme overbuilding, even after it began to slowdown, which gave people jobs but inflated prices. Japan is still riddled with ghost apartments, entire ghost towns really. I think China's headed down Japan's road, and a crash there could be good, because it might lead to a more democratic country and improvements in the finance sector.

Australia and Ireland in terms of oversupply are pretty similar as far as I'm concerned. A lot of the oversupply in Ireland wasn't obvious, because it didn't really come out of the woodwork until people stopped buying projects. You had all these projects for new flats and estates all over the place, and they'd been meeting that rising investment demand, until suddenly that demand wasn't there and everyone realised not only did no one want all these new places (leading to a lot of partly built projects stalling) but a bunch of people also wanted to sell existing places as they now didn't think they'd make money. Those new projects though made up the biggest losses by far. The 50% drop wasn't proportional, as many of those partly built projects lost 100% (so contributed to dragging that average down).

 

My argument is that Adelaide had its economic golden years under Sir Playford and has been playing catch up to that. However I still stand by that Adelaide & South Australia have very 'defensive' industries and thus should be a natural investment spot=defence, agriculture & wines plus domestic tourism (less up and down than international)

 

Yes.

Yes.

I've mention multiple times, even direct to yourself.

I've even posted a purchase from 2016.
Bought for $281,250 electronic valuation completed today $348,814
Currently renting for $335p/w
Comparable sales in the same suburb within 1km, same number of bedrooms/bathrooms same size blocks
- $331,000
- $340,000
- $340,000
- $374,000

 

Didn't the government have to bulldoze some new estates in Ireland because they were incomplete or vacant because no one wanted to live there? If that's true then that is overbuilding.

Do you think the same thing will happen in Australia?

 

No, I know too many people who would happily buy a cheap house even if it is in Melton, before the government bulldozes it.
Bulldozing unfinished houses however-that is a different story.

 

I don't really know how you can honestly state that overbuilding in Australia is pretty similar to overbuilding in Ireland before the crash.

"Between the mid-1990s and 2007, Irish developers flocked to build new homes, spurred on by the easy availability of credit, cheap labour from eastern Europe and a vibrant Dublin property market. But then the bottom fell out and by 2010 there were an estimated 600 ghost estates in Ireland with an estimated 300,000 homes lying empty."​

Exorcising Ireland's last ghost estates: Demolition begins on the housing projects built during economic boom that left country with 300,000 empty homes | Daily Mail Online

The population of Ireland in 2010 was 4.549 million and there were an estimated 600 ghost estates with an estimated 300,000 homes lying empty. That's incredible if you think about it and there is simply no evidence to suggest that the level of overbuilding in Australia is anything like this.

 

What are the drivers? C'mon @MTR, surely you know the Violet Crumble has returned to Adelaide

"The factory, based in Glynde, Adelaide, underwent a $4 million refurbishment to make the production of Violet Crumbles possible along with the three-month relocation of factory parts from Melbourne to South Australia.​

While the cost of the brand’s purchase has not been revealed, Robert Menz did get a helping hand via a $750,000 state government Future Jobs Fund grant and a $900,000 loan from the Investment Attraction Agency."​

https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...l/news-story/ba2635c4f8a10e3b97f2b741a6e3e137

 

Not too worried about violet crumble...

I am not keen on Adelaide, however if I see demand increase and stock tighten I will psy attention

Until then..... its not on my radar

 

A bit back towards the initial topic heading, Yardley is now heavily promoting his renovate & develop classes/books etc appearing to have moved away from inner city blue chip.

 

i just think there are so many variables and it's the ability to pick the right one that is the key . Each of the guru's have their own take. Some always say that it's economic vibrancy, population growth, immigration and age demographics and incomes that create price pressure.
Other gurus talk about market sentiment, supply and demand, affordability and infrastructure stimulus.
Then you get others talking about gentrification and long term property cycles. There are those who believe Adelaide will have a better time next decade.
Me, I have don't have the answers, all I can say is that I think Adelaide is under valued and under respected by many Australians.
People say that past performance should not be used as a guide for future results, however we can learn something from the past. I do think media hype and investor sentiment do have Some impact.

 

Yardney for years was pretty much promoting only blue chip for growth and accessing equity to keep buying and I think at time LOE.... that strategy wont work today. I think he realised that and has moved on.

They seem to have various opinions on what markets will boom. I am not a fan of Terry Ryder, he does not get it right that often.....

 

You can say that again!
Expert my butt

 

Where is he now with his thinking?

 

Great Chinese saying. A Feng shui master will trick you 8-10 years. An expert will trick you 20-30