What Does Yardney Have to Say???

State by state: An update on Australia's housing markets - SmartCompany

Some snippets....to take from this...…


Sydney
The Sydney property market peaked a year ago — in July 2017 — and is now experiencing a soft landing, with dwelling values falling by -5.4% over the last year.


Melbourne
The Melbourne property market peaked in November 2017, and dwelling values fell by 1.8% over the last year.

While Melbourne’s property prices are likely to fall a little more — maybe a further 3% this year — they will be underpinned by a robust economy


Brisbane
The Brisbane property market languished over the last few years.

However, while overall dwelling values increased 1.3% over the past year, a number of gentrifying middle-ring suburbs exhibited double-digit growth.

Yet Brisbane is the market with the most potential for growth over the next three years.
In the first seven months of the year, Brisbane dwelling values rose by 0.4%.


Adelaide
Adelaide dwelling values increased by 0.7% over the last year, down from 5.4% growth a year ago, however, this is the fifth consecutive year in which values have increased.

Like the rest of Australia, the Adelaide property market is very fragmented, with some suburbs growing faster than others.

In my mind, there are better places to invest than Adelaide.



Perth
Perth dwelling values fell by -2.3% over the last year.

The Perth property market peaked in June 2014 and is still, more than four years later, yet to bottom, with dwelling values 12.1% below what they were in June 2014.

While the market may level out in the next six months, it’s much too early for a countercyclical investment in Perth. I can’t see prices rising significantly for a number of years.



Hobart
Hobart has been the strongest performing capital city over the last year returning overall capital growth of 11.5% and is likely to be the top performer this year — driven, in part, by investors chasing the ‘next hot spot’.

However, the pace of growth is slowing down and it’s important to keep in mind that Hobart is a very small market


Darwin
The Darwin property market peaked in August 2010 is still suffering from the effects of the end of our mining boom eight years later, falling another 6.2% over the last year,
Darwin does not have significant growth drivers on the horizon and would be best avoided by investors.



Canberra
Canberra’s property market is a quiet achiever, having grown 3.5% over the last year, and is likely to continue to perform well, underpinned by a stable economy which has led to steady employment and above average population growth (+1.8% per annum).




In Summary
We’re clearly in the next stage of the property cycle, one of moderate growth in some regions, virtually no growth in others and falling prices in some.

Australia’s property markets are very fragmented, driven by local factors including jobs growth, population growth, consumer confidence and supply and demand.

 

I follow Doctor Andrew Wilson: Dr Andrew Wilson on LinkedIn: "No Early Spring Bounce For Fading Home Auction Markets Capital city home auction markets have recorded their worst…

No Early Spring Bounce For Fading Home Auction Markets Capital city home auction markets have recorded their worst start to the spring selling season since the GFC flattened demand in 2008 – ten years ago. All capitals recorded falls in published weekend clearance rates over September compared to August with results sharply lower than those reported over September last year. Canberra and Adelaide continued to produce the highest clearance rates however the gap is now narrowing compared to the other capitals results. Sydney and Melbourne clearance rates remain more than 20% lower than those recorded over the same period last year and have failed to consolidate the early signs of revival that emerged over the concluding weekends of August and the first two weekends of September. The Melbourne market in particular has faded sharply over the past three weekends following consecutive weekends with rates above 60% to commence September. September usually favours sellers with typically higher listings over the concluding months of the spring selling season acting to push clearance rates down. Buyers are now certainly generally favoured by current market conditions.

 

This is probably a good thread for PC members to post overview on the property market and predictions.

Then review in 12 months time.... and see who got it right or who got it wrong.

 

I do find Michael Y's blogs pretty good and I'm a subscriber, but my (new) favourite commentator is Pete Wargent, who's probably more forward thinking than anyone else out there.

He cites reasons, not just thoughts and beliefs.

Pete Wargent Daily Blog

 

From my experience:

Bullish commentators - will look for data to put as much positive spin on current conditions and rarely make negative forecasts:
Michael Yardney, Doc Andrew Wilson, Pete Wargent, Switzer

Neutral commentators: Cameron kusher, Shane oliver, Louis Christopher (although he was predicting slow growth this year)

Bearish commentators - seeking out data which supports negative forecasts:
Martin North, Macrobusiness, Philip soos, and even Nathan Birch

I’ve found all above commentators have credibility but the bears are winning and becoming more emboldened.

 

I don't see much point in predictions on such broad markets.


There will be good buys - there will be bad buys

Some will make money - some will lose money

These call all be in the same market.

 

I reckon you can still make a quick buck in the current market. I’ve looked at some units that could be renovated and flipped for 8% net profit if done asap. I didn’t know until after the fact and realised sentiment is still holding up at the bottom end.

But that was in winter when a lot of commentators were optimistic about a spring rebound.

 

+1.

 

Why? That statement was as generic as the commentators forecast.

 

Generic for you, not for me buddy .

 

To answer this question, I’m not interested in short term speculative investment I’m interested in a long term hold so knowing which way the market is heading in general will influence my strategy for obtaining the best possible property I can get within my budget.

 

Imo (perhaps many don't share this opinion) all investing is speculative. Some are more speculative than others which is where the sliding scale of risk comes in. But it's all speculative .

You open a business and hope through doing x,y and z, you will end up profitable. But you don't know. You can speculate.

You buy strong cashflow yielding properties and hope to realise that CF. But you don't know. Rents drop, major maintenance occurs, tenants are nightmare etc etc. Its not certain.

Bottom line for me, all investing is speculative along a spectrum of very low risk to very high risk.

 

I don't disagree - I've put 2 offers down in the last week.
- One being a knockdown, subdivide sell the land
- Other being renovate/complete/flip and sell or hold.

I believe there is always money to be made, you just need to get the right price.

Happy to look at anything that I see profit in.

 

The constant spam “markets within markets” is just as broad and useless a statement as what the poster was criticising.

Why not give specific examples of where you’re still making money instead of trying to shoot down an entire thread with generic spam.

 

I have commented in numerous posts where I see value or increasing likelihood of value occurring in certain markets. Beyond that, do your own research and due diligence. No free lunches.

Have no intention to nor have I shot down the entire thread with spam. Get a grip mate.

 

Pretty sure @Leo2413 has mentioned multiple times over on this forum.

I've also mentioned where I see value on here before....

For really specific 34 Carol Drive, Para Hills, SA 5096
I put an offer of $277,000 unconditional on this property a few after it come on the market prior to open (original advertised $250,000 - $275,000)

 

Hi @Brady, what kind of return on TDC do you anticipate mate?

Cheers

 

I didn't do detailed sums on the property I linked - to be honest I didn't even inspect offer was made unconditional prior to the open.
The property @ $277,000 would have many options

- could rent out without reno/update ~$320p/w (~6% yield on purchase price) 37 Campbell Drive Para Hills SA 5096 - House for Rent #424776018 - realestate.com.au | 14 Frances Avenue Para Hills SA 5096 - House for Rent #424695830 - realestate.com.au
- could reno/update for ~$20k and rent out ~$370+p/w (~6.5% yield including reno costs - but not purchase costs) 28 Graham Street Para Hills SA 5096 - House for Rent #424514842 - realestate.com.au
- Post renovation would be worth around $340k+ https://www.realestate.com.au/property/17-mcgill-cres-para-hills-sa-5096
- Could look at subdivision and selling the land end value ~$185k for the blocks Lot 2, 24 Lorna Road, Para Hills, SA 5096 - Property Details
- Could build on the blocks and rent for ~$360p/w each 31 Pankala Road Para Hills SA 5096 - House for Rent #424730926 - realestate.com.au
- Could build on the blocks and sell for ~$365k each 5B Pankala Road, Para Hills, SA 5096 - Property Details

 

Wasn’t directed at you specifically, no need to take it personally.

Last year anyone who said Sydney is gonna tank got shot down for being negative. This year anyone who mentions how hard Sydney is tanking gets shot down for being too broad.

Yep, definitely gotta do your own research. Especially if taking advice from the people who said Sydney would be flat this year.

 

All good mate I don't take anything personally from an online forum.