What does Michael Yardney say

Property is looking good for 2021

For those interested, here is an overview

This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State 18th January

 

Seems we read similar blogs too.
I like numbers, they tell a different story as opposed to opinions. So I am all about numbers!

 

Yes, Peter the stats guy for MY is very good

 

Has he ever said otherwise?

I'm a bit surprised by this graph.

Perth & Adelaide are really low. I didn't realise Melbourne isn't doing well.

 

I like Yardney's broad-based and analytical posts - a lot of info - a lot less theory & fluff.

however his 'advice' is always geared to be in sync with the opportunities his business offers and not objective - and quite disappointing! Like below from his latest newsletter:

"But there is a flight to quality.

The shortage of A-grade homes and investment properties compared to the number of buyers out looking for them mean that property values in certain locations are steadily creeping up.

On the other hand B grade (secondary) properties are selling at a discount and no one really wants C grade properties..."

The fact is that in the prop investment world, there rarely is an "A, B or C grading" based on their distance from CBD. A high cf prop in an outer suburb in his dictionary is C grade however that suburb over any 25 year period would have had similar growth to any A-grade suburb/ property. When an investor is buying a "C" grade property, he is not paying an "A" grade price to start with and therefore it is non-sensical to dismiss them as any lower-grade opportunities. I have had very robust discussions with him on multiple threads on SS around 2004 and 2005 around the very-same grading system and when I presented the actual numbers from my portfolio, I didn't hear back from him on the forum.

I hold in inner Melbourne (very blue chip suburbs - Kew, Mont Albert, Glen Iris), middle ring suburbs (Doncaster, Rowville) and a lot in outer suburbs (Frankston - C grade in his dictionary) and then interstate and regional - but overall the Frankston-portfolio and the sub div opportunities along with the cf has enabled me consistently over the past 20 years to keep adding to my portfolio and has performed much better overall than the A-grade (blue chip) prop when cf, dev and cap growth are all factored in.

Again, given his advice is free and publicly available, it merits some credit however presenting a truckloads of facts - only then to distort the outcome towards opportunities which directly favour his business is not something I would call "objective" commentary.

 

He's a hammer.........everything's a nail

 

I have been banging on about a golden age/era is coming post COVID for some time on PC. Last time I looked, I posted it 26 times in the last six months. First one was in July (4 months into the pandemic) when we all know where Melbourne was re: COVID.

TBH, any dumb turkey (even me) could see the good times are acomin!!!

True. If he was around during the Great Depression, his message would probably be the same .

Likewise, I do get a lot of his stuff and read some of them.

That pi.ses me off as well. If he just presnted all the information and then ended the article with a setence like "If you would like to discuss the above or would like further details, free feel to contact ...", I could handle it. Otherwise, it has a smell of sucker-bait about it.

When I was in business, we used to run FREE Information Session. They were lead generation events which offered real world information. We would get a recent client/advocate to do the present as a case study.

One of our team would chair the session and the closing remark was:- "If you would like to discuss this presentation or would like further details, free feel to contact ..."

 

His mantra has always been blue chip is best, take it with a grain of salt

Years ago he was advocating strategy of LOE, this strategy wont work today, not sure it ever did

 

I am on the ground, Perth is going nuts atm, multiple offers. Lets wait to see the next quarter

 

Buy buy buy....

Why 2021 is the WORST time to buy property

 

Gotta love his marketing. Everyone is shocked to see that headline from him. So they read on.

Gotcha!

 

According to MY, only 2% properties on the market are "investment grade ".

 

Pure clickbait.

Now let's talk about the prediction the Sydney market will drop by 90%:

www.tinyurl.com/6hhnp9s7

 

Lol

 

I have no idea of the percentage but I do think you need to be very discerning. Especially, especially, if you want to build a portfolio in the millions.

 

In Perth buying is pretty much about networking with re agents as many properties are selling off market

I do feel for FHB in this market, its tough

 

FHB had so many chances to buy when Perth was as dead as a corpse.

 

I’ve looked at a couple of suburbs in Perth e.g. Forrestfield and asking prices appear to be close to 2015 levels. FHB had 5 years to save a deposit and capitalise so I don’t have much sympathy. On the urban fringes I’m sure there’s quite a few properties in places like Baldivis that are in negative equity.

 

You could be right

However the areas I have been looking at have lots of competition and sale prices seem to be setting new records

 

For me so far, It’s has good track record so far to invest in blue chip for growth.
So I don’t have 10+ properties, but just 4.
Is it about the number of properties or about the $ numbers?