What do you think will happen to bank share prices after the royal Commission report?

For long term investment bank shares are something i would hold.
Interested to see what others think will happen after the report is released at 4pm on Monday once markets close.

Is this a time to buy now, or do you think further headwinds will tank share prices/dividends further?

I’m leaning towards taking a punt and buying on Monday prior to the report.

Anyone else buying?

 

HODL in my case

 

Banks could go up after the report.

But I've been trading mining shares and have had the best January in a long time.

 

I have been watching this onec. What Matt Comlyn (CBA) suggested at the RC around broker remuneration (fee for service for brokers- no more commission) was a wild recommendation that would ultimately greatly benefit the major banks. It has been proven through subsequent research that nobody is going to pay to use a broker and as a result, the third party distribution channel would become obsolete (well not completely, but largely).

Given that in recent times brokers represent approx 59% of originated loans this would have a tangible benefit on lenders that rely on the third party distribution channel - lenders like Macquarie and numerous others. They would lose their source of business and as a result this would all gravitate toward the majors. This major share gain would then result in smaller competition as the smaller lenders exit the market and

SO with this in mind... you would think that there would be a run on the banks. Our country is hopeless when it comes to the confidential nature of announcements for publically listed companies, so I would have expected if the rumour leaked that the fee for service scenario will materialize then there would've already been a buying spree on the major banks. But I don't see it in the charts, so I don't think the fee for service scenario will materialize.

Given that, I don't see upside for the majors with the announcement. Perhaps there will be with smaller lenders like MQG, BEN, etc. Opinion only, not advice

 

If I had to make a punt I would say that they will progressively trade lower over the course of Monday. How they open on Tuesday morning will of course depend on the final report from the commission. There will have beeen sufficient time for the market to digest the key findings overnight, so would expect the price at open to be well considered.

If I had to take a guess I would say odds are more likely for a rally on Tuesday, a lot of uncertainty about th RC and expectations of really bad outcomes. Would have to be some pretty dire recommendations to go beyond people’s expectations.

If it really is bad news and they get sold off hard, I would be very inclined to buy because really - how much worse could things get!

 

If they report the truth, then shares will go down.

 

I'm holding but possibly buying more if prices drop further....

 

for your info there are currently $5 billion shorts on the banks by offshore players this week so they thinking banks will get a copping but they have been wrong before just for your info.

I am waiting, I don't see the rush to buy banks in this cycle, too many headwinds
I am waiting to digest 1/2 yearly result + Hayne Report then I will make up my mind

 

Hi PandS how did you find that out? Always looking for good tips on how to analyse what's happening in the market

 

By reading far and wide and from many sources .. AFR .. WSJ .. Bloomberg etc..

Hedge funds sell and short banks ahead of banking royal commission final report

that figure based on 31st December number since then 4 major banks has got short increase on my rough calculation it around 6bn short across the 4 banks
@KittyCat if you bore here is something you can play

S&P 500 Map

 

Thank you will have a read

 

Banking royal commission: Credit squeeze tipped to ease after final report

Then there’s positive news that lending squeeze will ease after the report, should help business profits.

 

Looks like "Buy now" is the winner. Who was the other clever investor on the money?

CBA up over $3 today, other banks up to 7% up.

 

Giddyup

 

What a fool I was to expect a positive outcome for consumers out of the royal commission. Long live capitalism eh?

 

Would you believe I talked myself out of buying prior and waiting...oh well, there’s always the next royal commission to buy up prior

 

Good job @The Y-man . Thought about picking up individual bank shares a number of times over the last few months but decided I will just leave it up to the fund managers to decide what to buy and when.