Western Sydney 2% price increase over the last quarter

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by Tenex, 28th Jan, 2016.

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  1. melbournian

    melbournian Well-Known Member

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    true depends on how granular you wish to drill into. obviously as a time dimension over years on growth across state that would be a good indicator for an interstate person like myself . i' myself have been computing data on properties in particular school zones etc. and can identify which streets have the fatest turnaround, rental and sale price.. Even apartment buildings have trends, some building do better than others.
     
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  2. Inov8ive

    Inov8ive Well-Known Member

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    Yep thats definitely the plan to build the portfolio as much as possible so that 5% growth does show those types of numbers.We are selling because we are going to buy a PPOR hopefully outright but more than likely with a small loan against it.
     
  3. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    People use stats to present an argument to their favour. Like me I am heavily vested in Sydney west and I present a observation that west was in positive (though an insignificant increase) while rest of Sydney is in the red.

    Perfectly understood the lag in stats. The stats are for late 2015 data. Because of the heavy geared in west, I was in the ground talking to agents. It was soft and I was expecting west would be in the red along with rest of Sydney.

    It may be as what Jennifer observed that west still affordable for most home buyers and well established infrastructure in place and jobs in the pipeline.

    We will battle quarter by quarter with these "stats" to formulate a trend. No question it will trending south, but how far south is the million dollar question.
     
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  4. Tenex

    Tenex Well-Known Member

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    I have said this before and I will say it again. For the sake of everyone that has invested in QLD, I hope I am wrong.


    But, I am in the employment market (predominantly IT) and QLD has not done too well. I dont need to tell you what is happening to the mining industry there. The short term growth of Brisbane, as I pointed out earlier is low interest rates and "must buy something" buyers who for some reason buy because it is cheapER.


    Sydney may re-adjust slightly but still very much in demand. Have a look at recent sales around Parramatta (heart of Western Sydney). They are selling like hot cakes and at very high prices. Prices that are hard to believe even for me.


    Here is whats happening in and around Western Sydney:


    University of Western Sydney is building a large campus in Parramatta CBD in addition to their existing campus

    Rail line going into all of the hills area (located north and west of Western Sydney)

    Parramatta river is being turned into a beach as well as a number of hotels in the area re-building / renovating which means Parramatta will be a tourist hotspot

    Westconnex which is the the largest transport project in Australia (widening the highways) is happening around Parramatta

    Western Sydney Airport is being built

    Approval for a major theme park to be built next to wet and wild in Western Sydney

    Approval for Arthur Phillip high school in Parramatta to be rebuilt as a high rise as an example of schools of future

    Merrylands which is south of Parramatta and still a part of Western Sydney has a number of approved (currently being built) high rises going in

    They have approval for Australia’s largest shopping centre to be built in the hills district

    Add to that the ability for western sydney to tap into the wider Sydney job market and universities

    And finally, Western Sydney plays a major role in all elections both state and federal


    There is much more going on in Western Sydney than the above.
     
  5. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    All great..but even in a relatively good market from 2006 when the libs took over in Sydney the market corrected.

    What you are seeing is the people who believe that the market will keep going up when it is in fact heading down....been through 3 cycles. This one is not different...matter of time. Western Sydney has a lot more first home buyers and people who are more likely to suffer than better parts of the city.

    As for Brisbane...yes it not going to boom like Sydney...but it will do the 100-150k gain per property over the next couple of years.

     
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  6. melbournian

    melbournian Well-Known Member

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    100-150k against what base amount ?that growth would be faster than ur Werribee and officer lots
     
  7. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    against purchase prices of 250 to 300so about a 40% to 50% gain
     
    Last edited: 30th Jan, 2016
  8. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Brisbane has reduced its reliqnce on mining for investment and its jobs over the last 3years and continues to do so at an increasing rate. Even the state govt acknowledges such. Ie they have initiated a lot more non mining projcts than they would have 5 yrs bqck.
    ..multiple consecutive quarters of growth -see the chart that @Steven Ryan posted.. by virtue of it just being cheap will not sustain a consistent and longer run growth as it has done.
     
  9. teetotal

    teetotal Well-Known Member

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    Regardless of what stats say, either macroeconomic or microeconomics. They shape the mentality of the crowd.
    So its upto every individual how they want to play.
    Do they play with mass-mentality or their own psychology?
     
  10. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    This is what I wrote yesterday and forgot to post...........

    But what *is* Western Sydney, specifically I mean.

    Often we, on the forums, dis the media for saying, this is up, or that is down, we mainly see different markets throughout a city area, so when someone says Western Sydney, do they mean.... Summer Hill ? do they mean Parramatta, or Blacktown, or Penrith ?

    I have no dog in this fight, but Sydney has had it's day pretty much, you only have to cover some old ground and do a few opens today to see the difference in numbers, I guess all I can say is that without a doubt there has been pullback in the areas I have looked at and watched apart from the 2 bed units in SW . I now see places sitting there, for more than 2 months, that were gone in a week 6 months ago, I do not understand people using stats unless they know exactly what all the data is so it can be read properly, 3 different sites, 3 different stats.
     
  11. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    That may be wishful thinking, or if correct, it also may lose a lot when it turns.....I guess a lot of Logan only needs another 50 to be at the 100 mark. Not sure why, but I was thinking 10% per year would be too ambitious, but some places will.
     
  12. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    We are talking end to end here...so the growth phase started in 2013-2014...in say 2019 a house bought for say 300k becomes 450k ....that is what I am thinking.

    As for Logan...there is a natural price resistance there before it falls back again. The days of buying a house in Logan for 65k....and then it doubles to 130k and then again to 260k (which was just over where it started this cycle) to 520k this cycle might be ambitous but somewhere in the high 3s is more on the mark. I think the resistance barrier is 400k ...again it will drop like a lead balloon post boom.
     
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  13. Inov8ive

    Inov8ive Well-Known Member

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    Western Sydney is everything from Homebush to Penrith. Summer Hill is Inner West. Just like most places, there are markets in markets. Parramatta has different market drivers to say Penrith but then both will benefit from west connex and Badgerys Creek
     
  14. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    Yawn.. Same old same old you were saying about Mt Druitt in the last cycle.

    Logan and Mt Druitt is definitely not for you at any part of the cycle, whether it is in recovery, rising or fallen. Just don't get it why you're bad mouthing about these suburbs in your entire investment journey, while smart investors had made their money....
     
  15. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    That last sentence. You've seen it in Sydney, so it's not a stretch to think it'll happen elsewhere. It's not going to be an entirely rational path forward but that's the way these things go.
     
  16. melbournian

    melbournian Well-Known Member

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    i think @sash was just acting as a devil's advocate which is good to get a balanced view. i as an interstate person who am looking to into both nsw and qld obviously hear the various viewpoints. Not looking to throw stones but i think Mt Druitt is very different to Logan as basically sydney is a whole different market to queensland, with majority of corporate jobs hq located there. Someone could work for "Goldman Sachs" in central sydney CBD and in theory live in Mt Druitt communting to work daily. Also, jobs in sydney pay more than melbourne followed by brisbane - with the factor of inflation as things cost more in sydney than the other states. Population growths are higher and there are more schools and universities in sydney itself with all major airlines flying directly into sydney. Not all two suburbs can be directly the same, Docklands postcode in melbourne was modelled after darling habour in nsw and after 10 years it hasn't really achieved what it was intended for.
     
    Last edited: 30th Jan, 2016
  17. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    Getting a balanced view is good for the prospective buyer/audience , but I don't view the same . There's never ever a balanced view from his perspective when it comes to these suburbs yet Logan surburbs did well in last cycle so as Mt Druitt. If you look at some of his view on SS, you kind of get his view isn't all that balanced.

    Not looking for an apple to Apple comparison between Logan and MT Druitt as it each has pros and cons, but when Sydney did well in the last few years Mt Druit followed(some say it exceeded expectations)

    If SE QLD going nowhere I can't see Logan going places. Logan did average 9% increase per year for the last 2 years

    Logan has higher investor buyer in the last 12 months, but we also need to fair to suggest the seller is also an investor. As long as the left side equation balanced with the right side, I am ok with movement of activity, and the overall/ long term trend of investor activity remain the same, me thinks.
     
  18. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    Nah, that would be like living in housing commission in Werribee and working Melbourne CBD for Goldmans, just won't do it.

    There is a few areas in that zone that will still be less desirable, but someone will live there, you would go Blacktown or Penrith first, but yeah, I think your point of just playing devils advocate is right, no point pushing back on this either, if Sydney drops by a fair margin, it won't be great in some of these outer suburbs, including the outer areas of the SW.

    We may be at a critical point in peoples confidence that will play out, either mild or pretty messy if people panic.

    If your going to hold long term, who cares, after it goes down, it will pick up again too. May even be some good buys to add for those that like these areas.
     
  19. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    I see, I do not consider it growth till they are at/passing the last peak, that is just how I look at it.
     
  20. melbournian

    melbournian Well-Known Member

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    Yeah i know what u mean was making a comparison with mt druitt and Logan being the availability of jobs and feasibility of it. I remember guys at my workplace living in Geelong and commuting daily to Mulgrave 100km each way because u can still live in a far location and find work elsewhere, so no surprise places like mt druitt had grown Same like western suburbs in Melbourne like Werribee pt cook which had grown as those are the only places ppl which certain income level can afford which all points to the Population and job growth where nsw has more than qld.