VIC Werribee Werribee!

Provided that the whole market is still growing at a rate of 10% or higher. Otherwise with $750k, there are better choices than Werribee.

 

What better places can you think of nearby? Hoppers Crossing has massive bottlenecks on Old Geelong Road + not leisure atmosphere like Werribee Zoo/Mansion/State Rose Garden etc. You can also get a larger plot of land in Werribee.

 

Good question.. It'll stall at a certain price point. Ultimately the market will determine that.
At the moment there's lots of owner occupier activity...many are spending 550k+ on homes in new Werribee estates.
The thing is...where else in Melbourne do you get a new family size home for 500-550k a half hour away from the CBD?

 

There are different routes to the freeway from HC, not just through Old Geelong Road. Of course HC is not as close as Werribee to Zoo/Mansion/Garden but it is not far away (15 mins drive). I do like Werribee since it has a proper town centre and more natural feel but talking to quite a lot of OZ friends, they all say HC is a much better area than Werribee even though they are next to each other.

Anyways, I do not think both HC and Werribee can reach $750k in 5 years. Their median price atm is around $500k so to reach $750k, it means the annual growth is close to 10%. Someone may say thay the last 2 years, growth is 15% or even 20% so why not. But I doubt it because rate will rise, market cycle will kick in. It cannot keep increasing forever. Once it hits its strap, growth will slow down or even some correction may occur.

 

It will no longer be 30 mins with the amount of people entering the road everyday. West Gate bridge is a big bottleneck and when you have more and more people, it is even worse. Of course the gov is trying to solve by building the West Gate Tunnel but let say the plan can go ahead, it is a long way to go until it is completed.

My feeling is you still can find a good deal in Werribee but need to be very careful. Atm, there are a lot of OC activities where buyers are pushing to their financial boundary to purchase houses there. If something happens to the economy, this is the area which will be affected the most.

 

I don't know your ethnicity but I speak to quite a few Indian people and they tell me that the HC/Werribee area is basically where a lot of immigrants have their mind focused on for a first home. Given you can easily acquire a property on a $60-70k wage it makes a lot of sense to have the stability that a lot of them dreamed of. Like it or not but net immigration to Victoria will continue to be 100k+ which is huge. Not everyone wants to live in a shoebox apartment.

 

Werribee is one of the suburbs where there are actually a lot of loans that are mostly paid back. The banks seemed to have clamped down moreso on the West than the East which is crazy given the price multiples. Check out ABC's loan stress map.

 

That's a very broad assumption, how would you know that? I can only comment on what I'm seeing on the ground.

I'd be more concerned at inner city markets at the moment... should the economy tank, those buying in the last 12 months with the mega $$ mortgages that require high salaries to maintain are going to feel a lot more pain, a lot quicker than someone with say a 400k debt, of which a lower and more attainable salary could service.

 

Yes, I agree that some over priced inner surburbs will face a big correction if the economy has any issue. When those areas decrease, do you think Werribee will not be affected? When you can buy a house within 20km from the CBD for 600-700k, would you pay the same amount for a house in Werribee which is basically 30km from CBD. And most of us here is looking for IP, so if yield is low, price is flat and you do not have great cash flow to borrow more or cash in hand to subdivide and build, are you able to hold your IP for several years until the market enter a new cycle.

As I said before, I do believe that you stillcan find a good deal in Werribee but please be cautious. The market now is not the same as 1 or 2 years ago. It is very close to its peak now. Melbourne is 6-9 months behind Sydney. Outer west Melbourne is also lagging behind Eastern/Northern surburbs so probably it will have another 6-12 months.

I may be wrong (I hope so)! And I am also a beginner so all I have said is my thought based on my very limited knowledge. I just want to share my opinion here .

 

Is it because most of the loan are old loan several years ago and the borrowers have paid back since they bought it pretty cheap at that time or they have sold their house recently for much more than their mortgage? I am asking.

 

Mostly the former. Many everyday Aussie battlers have realised immense wealth from selling a house as well. As I mentioned on page 9 of this thread the median loan repayment is under $1500/month. Very manageable given the median wage of $65,000/year.

 

I think you would really need on-ground knowledge to ascertain that. There will always be suburbs that plateau and suburbs that will grow in Melbourne. in 2015 it was the ringwoods, claytons etc which all shot up. 2016 were the prestons, maidstones, thornburys etc and 2017 reservoirs, point cooks, tarneits, - the real question is what suburbs will in the coming 2018. Secondly, just about every single ACZ is nearly a million or reaching closer and closer to it. We're not talking only rezoned areas but whole surrounding areas that consist of the suburb itself. infrastructure, new hospitals, schools etc with certain ethnic demographics are a good starts to also make the call whether a suburb has capacity to grow

When glen Waverley and Balwyn were the high flying in the 2014-16 - where was pt cook? no where really - but flat - then it suddenly moved in 2017 as ppl were priced out. same as the blackburns, donvales, mitchams if you go back even further in years (the flow on effect) and same like Northcote, thornbury, preston, reservoir and entering Thomastown and Lalor. IMHO - Either find a suburb that is likely to take a lead in growth coming 2018 or work a strategy in terms of rezoned or high growth density ip.

 

Well put...some on the forum laughed at places like Werribee..Melton.....it was only a matter of time...now look where they are.....

Agree about ethnics driving the market ....people in the Sth East don't get this.....now the gaps is closing...next cycle it will close further.

 

Mate people are still laughing at these areas and paying them out, yet those same people never give details of where they invested and how much they have made in returns dollar for dollar.

 

I inspected the house this morning and all I can say is that it is not livable. There is only option which is to know it down and build townhouses. Good for someone with skills/experience and budget for it.

 

The issue with this one is it does not have a garage. Not sure how difficult to add a carport to the house. Otherwise, it is not so easy to get good rent imho.

 

I used to think that too, and presumably for some prospective tenants it's a high priority, but it doesn't seem to make much difference (at least in the areas I've invested in).

 

Werribee is a special area to invest in. There are many houses, old houses, (ex commission houses) which are stock standard 3 bed, 1 bath, small living and kitchen. Provided it's within walking distance to schools and shops, or the train station, they still lease - and are good to sit on for the capital growth. I've recently had owners who purchased old houses near Synnot St, and this is about 12 months before the area was rezoned - now they're laughing in terms of massive capital growth. Gentrification will eventually take place and those who bought wisely, will be the winners. I have to admit now, that those types of bargains are few and far between. Melton South is now the area to pick up a bargain to redevelop later - bad reputation for the area, but still manageable with great potential capital growth!

 

I've noticed Melton South has moved quite a bit since I purchased earlier in the year. However, I agree there are still some really good bargains to be found up there. Reputation wise yes it does have its drawbacks but personally I haven't had any issues with my tenants and rent is always paid on time.

 

Yeah very few bargains left now. This week's results show good results for vendors (though this time the blocks were larger it seems which has contributed to the good prices):



That house on Tolmie Av is a good one falling into Werribee Secondary's catchment. I vied for a property on Tower Road in Feb/March this year, it went for higher than I was prepared to pay for it, $512k. It was closer to the trains than the one on Tolmie Av, goes to show the market's moving along at a good clip.