Watching the Druie Drop in Slow Motion

Does your mate develop apartment or just buy & hold for the property in Auburn ?

 

Thats all you have to say? Common man. Just because I havent been on the forums doesnt mean a thing. I've been investing since I was 21. Bought my first house whilst going to University and working full time at the same time.

You know I have very very valid points and a strong case. Anyway I'm not expecting love from everyone. I know there are doubters in every industry - even my 9 - 5 I have guys questioning my abilities but you just let the prices and actions talk. that is all.

I'm been in the game a long long time even though I am fairly youngish.

DYOR like i always say.

 

He does both. We grew up together but he is not from the area.

 

What makes you do super confident that your research and analysis is so flawless?
Others with decades of experience in the area are nervous, are you really so sure of your research and analysis to be this gung ho? Is your research so super superior?
You can be a cowboy all you want - after all it's your money (and any loans as well)

 

Nothing is certain in life. Heck I could get run over by a bus tomorrow or crash my car racing at eastern creek on the weekends. Who knows.

I have 100% confidence in myself. Sometimes that is all that's needed in investing and in other parts of life. Your right its my money (or the investors money) so take it with a grain of salt.

I've always said - DYOR. I realised one thing in life. You meet 2 kinds of people.

1) People that actually take hold and drive their own success and believe in themselves by taking action not just talking
2) People that talk and talk and talk and take no action their entire lives.

I've learnt not to listen to people and always rely on my own research. I ALWAYS endorse this.

 

Depends what you define by sheep. I think you are going to have better success being a "sheep" of the, as fols put it, "experienced investors on PC who have serious knowledge gained via the IP school of hard knocks over multiple cycles in multiple States." than attempting to chase further growth in Sydney on stupidly low yields.

 

@sash Your first post in this thread was in October 2015.

The statement was that prices would fall back by 10% within 6 months and 35% by 2019.
The starting prices were increased for effect as per the usual approach.

So 19 months down the track - how do you reckon they compare ?

 

It ain't 2019 Tonibell........lets wait and see.......even you maybe surprised....NO one market continues to perform forever...that is a fact.

All I can say is that I continue to execute to my plan....$10m net is looking like 2020....or earlier...

I am also selling down in some areas to take profit...unfortunately nothing in Sydney will be sold...nor in Melbourne.

How are you managing the tax liability on your sales?

 

Do you mean net assets? After all loans ?

 

i am happy to retire with net $10m

 

Yep.....if all goes well in non-Sydney NSW....Outer Melb/Geelong...Brisbane...and Adelaide..plus accumulated cash savings...

If Perth performs earlier...it could happen earlier.

Also based on the premise I am still acquiring (more like replacing non-performers) due to tightening loan criteria

 

@sash I'd conservatively say the prices have grown 15% since October 2015 - so you are way behind on your first predication (fall of 10%).

Can we agree you have got the last 2 years 100% wrong ?

The taxes ? They will be paid in cash when due.

 

The music ain't over........I guess...that you need to go through one cycle...it would seem to me a lot of Sydney people have grown way to used to continued price rises...it will be interesting to see what happens on how they react to a down market....the WA boys/gal realised this....could it be Sydney's time?

 

In few years time, we will know.

 

@sash I've had Sydney property continuously since the 1980s - so will cope with whatever happens.

Just enjoying how you have said the same thing about Sydney for over 2 years while the market has done the exact opposite.

It has a long way to fall before it gets to back to the point where you were calling "crash" - but still you go on quoting your expertise in predicting these trends.

Just a lack of self awareness I guess.

 

Then you should understand cycles...now move along...we all know just because you made 10% since 2015...it means nothing unless you realise the profits.

Now move along...

I have self awareness...the fact you chose to take what I said out of context is again telling. I distinctly saying 2019.....so who cares if you made 10-15% now...that could come off more than that by then.

 

@sash OK, no more from me.

 

look forward your thread should have sold in sydney and managed my exposure.

each to their own....i could care less i am staying on the exit plan in 3 years.

its all apples from where i sit no hype thread needed or negative emotions to the bleeding obvious

watch those i/o loans they will bring a lot undone this cycle

 

I do like "the Druie" reference. It's as though it's a stockmarket index like "the Dow Jones". All that happens in real estate tracks "the Druie" perhaps

 

Yeah I wouldn't have any borrowing capacity left to buy anywhere in Sydney anyway but just my thoughts based on what I'm seeing further away with H+L packages. The more established areas with older houses are looking like good value compared to the new stuff. You're probably right.