NSW Watching the Druie Drop in Slow Motion (2019)

Yep, you're missing the fact that you can sub divide a corner into 2 x 300m2.

Also aware of this. There are a couple of Project Builders that have designs to fit, otherwise you are correct that you'd need something custom designed which pushes the price up too far, so I can understand Sash saying there's no money in it, but clearly he hasn't had experience with the cheaper project builders.

 

Then maybe stick to talking about property investing and stop looking down on people. I’ve actually met u sash and u seem like a decent bloke. it’s a shame you sometimes act like a tool on this forum because I enjoy your insights when they are about property investing.

 

I do...stick to the facts..have a read...what I don't like is trolls.....

In 2016....they got upset when I said the Druie would take a hit and so would Sydney...

I don't care if I get called a tool or snob..far from it. People who met me know this. What I am trying to point out...is that lower socio areas like Logan and Mt Druitt...go up and then drop off dramatically.

I don't really...care...the calls I made in 2016 have come to fruition. ...despite all the emotional and attacking posts...

The other thing which gets up my nose is some of the ridiculous quoted construction costs. I have built quite a few homes in Melbourne, Geelong, and Perth. Sydney is the most expensive...and they don't seem to have fixed costs...Qld is also expensive to build. Both Melbourne and Perth have fixed costs to the 98% percentile ands they are about 40% cheaper then Sydney. So building in Sydney is fraught with more risks..also making the margins is harder but you need to know what you are doing detail is paramont. Heaps of people now trouble who built stuff in Sydney late in cycle and they are now in the verge of bankruptcy.

 

you have some extremely well formed opinions and i enjoy reading them and i love the debate as far as it relates to property investment and i actually agree with a lot of your comments, however i thought you were below the belt when you called an entire community "the dregs of society" especially because that includes my community. it's pretty much the definition of a snob.

I'm not trying to troll you and i'm not hiding behind my keyboard. as i said i met you down at wenty leagues a few years ago and spoke to you and from what i've seen i really have no reason to hide from you. i'd have no issue calling you a tool to your face because thats what you are when you make these comments.

im just asking you to think before you write things like that.

 

Not missing the fact. I dont believe you can sub divide a corner into 2 x 300m2. Your only able to if there is an existing dual occupancy and then each is able to be subdivided into torrens lot of over 300m2. You may find the new SEPP rules make it a bit easier (yes its available in blacktown).

Though if it was id see 250k land packages being sold like hotcakes to FHOG.

I agree @sash is bashing druitt for the wrong reasons and generally dont agree with most of the nonsense being posted up, Just wondering if you had any experience in this type of development?

Remember even a the peak 2770 (excluding mount druitt and minchinbury) the numbers did not work though a few were smart and able to keep the exisiting dwelling and build (very rare as who ever designed housing commision would plonk the house on an angle in the middle of the land)

 

Yes you can, but you go down the route of dual occ, then torrens.

It's very rare to be able to keep the existing dwelling for that reason.

 

@skater Have you had any experience doing a corner lot subdivision in that region?

 

This is a post that @sash would rather bury it for life...

..but bump !

Today, marks the 4th anniversary of his prediction, and let's recap this initial post originally posted 17 Nov 2015, specifically...
"...I reckon we will see 280-350k as the norm for houses by 2019"
Watching the Druie Drop in Slow Motion [NSW]

Had a quick look at last 100 properties sold on RE (search postcode 2770 and filter to house only).
https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/in-2770/list-1?source=refinement
Of the last 100 properties sold, only 5 properties sold under 400k.

1. https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-tregear-130491094 392k
2. https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-lethbridge+park-130844786 395k
3. https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-emerton-129118266 390k
4. https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-willmot-131360342 232k ( house destroyed, selling probably as land value)
5. https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-tregear-131127562 395k
6. https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-tregear-130987426 395k

95 of the 100 houses were sold over and above 400k.

In fact, RE current median for 2770 satelitte suburbs as follow:

Tregear 420K
Bidwell 478K
Lethbridge Park 430K
Hebersham 520K
Dharruk 530K
Shalvey 475K
Emerton 440K
Blackett 450K
The average of these 8 Mt Druitt satellite suburbs is $467,875
​

We see an with average median of the Mt Druitt satellite suburbs to be $467,875 on RealEstate.com and 95% of the properties sold well above 400K in the last 6 months.

This is no where near Sash prediction, not even close...
"...I reckon we will see 280-350k as the norm for houses by 2019"

Sash is an advocate in using "time will tell" repeately. However this post is coming to an expiration.

Where to from here Sash? continue to make more bold predictions about property? Sydney specific? armageddon in the stock market?

 

Let see ..... it ain't over yet....

 

Do you need help in shifting the goal post?

 

Are you formally Retire Rich.

Mate too busy making money...not interested in Mount Druie...more interested in more premium suburbs...easier to pull 300k out...

 

Go the Druitt !

Plenty of properties over 500K now.

I will make the bold prediction that by 2023 no house in the Druitt will be under 600K.

And that no child will be living in poverty.

Better forget that last one before I start crying again.

Any employer bums sacking workers for watching a race?

Blanche get me a cigar love. And why it's that Datto character mowing the lawn again ? He was here two days ago for crying out loud.

 

LOL, that didn't stop you jibbering BS in the last few years....why stop now?
you speak about peoplehving vested interest in sydney, yet you forgot about your own motives... called mother of all booms sydney in 2010, but never walk the talk..and purchased new builds in 2013-2014 Butler (3), old walk up units in 2014-2015 Moorooka/Annerly (3) that gone no where...?

And you only have 3 units in Sydney ( so 3/30+ properties ownership in Sydney) and all were purchased 1996-2002... does this mean you didnt buy a property in the last 2 Sydney boom?

just having a look at your 30 properties ....really feeling sorry for you.. there's quiet alot of dogs....

 

sash you banging on about Mt Druitt....yet I sincerely believe if you purchased 2 Mt Druitt properties in 2010 you easily beat all your 7 Brisbane properties combined, yes all 7 ( if you remove all BS in your estimates). old walk up units in Mooroka for over 300k seriously.
Oh your Clontaf property purchased in 2016 is flood prone, just to let you know...but I won't charge you any dilgent fees

My Brisbane Sub-Portfolio - is 2018-2021 the years for growth?

 

I say RR101..... ole boy welcome ole boy.... when will you learn ole bay....

OK lets go there......in 2010....Druie satellite suburbs could have been bought for 270k....now they are now about 500k. So about 230k.

Since you know my portfolio well you should look up that I bought in Maitland (near new hospital)....Central Coast (x2).....Wollongong..wanna take a bet they did as well or better than the Druie.

Might be the reason...I retired.... ..

 

That would be pretty awesome if it did but hard to see right now...

 

Surely not... Sash!!!!
(sorry i can't help but jest)

But seriously, there are many ways to skin the cat...as long we all make money...does it matter from where???

I for one, do value Sash's input (esp. his retirement strategies) ...don't hurt his feelings too much pleeze or he may just leave this forum !

 

A quick reminder so as to keep this thread in context, this thread is a continuation of a thread started by @sash in October 2015.

Watching the Druie Drop in Slow Motion [NSW]

Watching the Druie Drop in Slow Motion
Hi All,

I thought it would be interesting exercise to watch how the market in Mt Druitt suburbs correct over the next 2 year. So I have developed this thread...

I did a quick survey of the Whalan; Tregear; Lethbridge Park; Emerton; Dharruk...it seems most houses sell in the 440-500k range now. Not many over 500k compared to when it peaked.

I reckon we will see price adjust to 400-440k within the next 6 months.

As I have said before...I reckon we will see 280-350k as the norm for houses by 2019.

sash, 17th Oct, 2015

 

Yes it's good idea to keep original post.. though I LOL reading the first 2 pages of the original post, especially this one...



and fast track 4 years (just few post above) the reply is a 50% discrepancy
"in 2010....Druie satellite suburbs could have been bought for 270k..."

I don't know how "...houses by 2019", would still warrant a response "Let see ..... it ain't over yet...."

 

Not likely disappear..... any tougher and I would rust! I don't take notice of some these clowns....as they have nuttin' I can learn from dem. I know a few of the smart investors have quietly sold...and sitting on profits....what does that tell you?

I am trialing retirement.... I am taking profits...because I can see some clouds in the horizon. No point having 200-300k in profits only for that to disappear in down turn. Have seen that before....personally I don't think the rises in Melbourne and Sydney can be sustained. I have 10 in VIC and 7 NSW. So I in vested in these states. Funnily enough places like the Central Coast, Newcastle, and Wollongong are still going up....they did not stop like the last down turn...