NSW Watching the Druie Drop in Slow Motion (2018)

hit the sack or get the sack.

 

on what basis you saying this Leo?

The Sydney market in olaces like mount druit has come off....anyway time will tell

 

91A Pagoda Crescent, Quakers Hill, NSW 2763 - Property Details

Well this Semi (above) in QH sold for 670k and is 44km from the CBD. If you take the M4 from Mount Druitt its only 42km to the CBD and I think both markets are OO driven. 20% owned outright and 33% purchased with a loan. 56% are couples with kids. My gut is the 600-800 bracket wont slip much for free standing homes given the (expensive) alternatives for homes in Sydney with any proximity to the CBD.

 

• @ Sash

Being pedantic , at the moment you 'd just get three houses in Goonda for 731 , but they'd be bottom of the barrel , flood zone , reno specials .

Average for a goodna house is 320 , which gives you two for that price , average for a 3 bedder in 270 which gives you 810K for three that are ok .

Last Cycle Goodna peaked at a higher level than Mt Druitt , though I don't expect that this cycle . Having said that I don't think anyone expected Mt Druitt to get to an average of 731 . Certainly not you or me . I thought 500 K would be the peak ...and by your estimation it should be well below 500 by now . Crazy Stuff ... . There's going to be serious pain out there in the medium term

Cliff

 

We will see.....time reveals all....this time around the catalyst could be not only I/O only loans...but also people dabbling in Crackto Currency like Bitecoin...last time it was Dot gone.....in 2002...some people took money off offsets.

731k is crazy.....lets see who has no clothes on when the tide recedes....

 

@Leo2413
@sash
If purchased NOW.
Dont forget most of Druitt didn't purchase now Most have many years ago . but looking at a couple that bought now which is what 10% of Druitt maybe 15%

$700K purchase price PPR
$100K Deposit
$600k morgage

Monthly repayments $2800 approx per months / 4.3 Weeks per months $650 per week.


Suburb average
Looking at data average mortgage is is $1700 per months $395 per week.
Mount druitt Suburb Profile & Demographics | propertyDATA.com.au


So new Druitters are paying $650 per week in mortgage but the average is $395

Hardly a lot of stress

Family income average is $1099 per week.

A very affordable area.

 

My post actually says I'm of the opinion the 600-800 bracket for free standing homes won't fall too much.

 

How would you feel if you sold out 18 months ago because some knucklehead on a forum said "The smart money has already sold out."
(As opposed to selling to satisfy your own pre-planned financial plans.)

 

Leo

I think all of the long term Mt Druitt Watchers such as myself , Skater and Datto expect a drop off .

Despite it's price increase it's not a place most people want to live in if they have an alternative unless they've lived their life there and all their friends are there . For PPOR buyers , it's where you buy when you can't buy anywhere else .

High unemployment and bad money management lead to forced sales which undermine the market when it's not booming . Many of the purchases in the last couple of year will have stretched them selves to buy there and when the economy turns , many will get into difficulty . First home owners don't always have the buffers that other buyers can have.

I have a clear memory of doing a house visit to a patient who was about to have her house repossessed . In her small lounge room was one of the largest , "swankiest" over the top leather sofa sets I've seen . I asked where she'd got that and she'd bought it from an upmarket retail store . Her comment was that if she got evicted she was going to hang on to her leather lounge .

It's not necessarily about affordability , it's about poor life choices / decisions and I saw those pretty well every day of the 19 years I worked there .

cliff

 

Very well could be the case. Will be interesting to see how it plays out over time.

 

@Leo2413
Sorry Leo I know that's what you meant. I tagged you just to agree. I should have made that clear.

 

Your taking your perspective on this though. Some people love living out there even some very well educated people that I know and they are VERY well educated so you cant stigmatise the suburb because some are making it look like that.

I do agree it is quite high now - but even at $731k the pricepoint is somewhat affordable then 1.5 million say in Bella Vista (which honestly is like 15-20 mins drive away even faster on the m7) .

 

I think what some posters are having problems with is that they're making observations about what Sydney was like in the 90's and not taking into consideration the massive changes and over-crowding which has occurred since then. Perhaps that's when they started their life in Australia?
Sydney has changed, the whole country has. Not only since the 90's by the way. Mass migration has completely changed this country. The people buying into The Druie and other western suburbs aren't poor, they're not bogans and they're not old. They're employed, educated and either come from a long line of Australian background or a wealthy family who migrated here sometime in the past 20 years.
Yes, there are cycles and The Druie will experience a downward trend like everywhere else. The severity will not be worse. In fact, it may remain more bouyant than elsewhere because of its affordability. As has happened with other affordable suburbs over several Sydney cycles.e.g. The Eastern Suburbs was once the affordable area but now it's not. Therefore it had massive growth at the beginning, during and after the boom 2001-03. But in 2010 it stayed flat, unlike cheaper areas. And in 2013 it didn't do anything while Parramatta and outer west took off like a rocket. Eastern suburbs were late to the party and will be first to cool. Same with other more expensive areas.
That's how it works in Sydney, take it from an old local.
While it's a great benefit to read the experiences and points of view of successful investors, it probably wouldn't hurt for them to take stock and have a good look around. And imporatntly, not to forget that they have just sold a whole bunch of properties that did nothing for them, after no doubt trying to beat up a following for those areas. How much money, time and effort was wasted doing that? Or opportunity cost, if it's your thing.
While I acknowledge some good calls and the ability to get out before SHF, I also say that the most successful people don't make judgement calls based on delusions of grandeur. And those with integrity know how to say when they're wrong - the sooner the better. Otherwise it becomes bigger than Ben Herr and how do you get out of it then? (Hint extend the time and give it a long range???).

 

@Wattleldo - you my man have nailed it perfectly. Sydney has moved on, times have changed - people are using their knowledge from the 80s and 90s to predict times in 2020s.

Population, jobs, ethnic diversity all of that has changed dramatically. Heck I remember in school (not being racist here) but i NEVER saw many asians, indians and africans in any of my classes. AND that wasn't even that long ago. I saw my nephews class photo - they have it lucky that they are exposed to so much multiculturalism and opportunity to experience other cultures. I WISH I had more of that when I was younger.

Some people are applying old school mentality and thinking for current climates.

"past performance is not an indicator of future performance" as they say.

 

Question. Why would a wealthy family prefer Druid over say Kings Park or Quackers Hill or Lalor Park?

I’m assuming wealthy means poor enough not to afford 80% of desirable suburbs.

 

Your comparing Lalor Park/ Quakers to Mt Druitt? LOL - not much difference between them mate.

 

Except that is closer to major employment centres. Much closer.

 

Personally every "very well educated " who had grown up in a " nice area " who I met in the 19 years I worked out there on a daily basis meeting 40-50 people / day , couldn't wait to get out of the place . Definitely before their kids reached school age , and often even if it meant selling at a loss ...

Some of them were really quite shocked at what it was really like living out there . They bought because it was all they could afford , but the reality can be totally different .

I'm talking about Wilnot , Bidwell , letho , not upmarket places like minchinbury .

Cliff

 

has 'the durie' dropped yet?

 

Nope. Unlikely until interest rates go up. If they go up.