Was your risk management sufficient coming into Covid-19 Crisis?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Blueskies, 20th Mar, 2020.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
  1. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Oct, 2015
    Posts:
    1,693
    Location:
    Victoria
    Yep the only thing keeping me afloat is cash buffer.

    So I have around 10 years’ interest worth of cash on hand. I get pretty uncomfortable if I fall into the 3-4 year range, especially in the last two years where I knew the market was out of control bullish on shares and properties. Perhaps in a depression I’d be more happy to eat into that buffer for investments.

    I mean cashflow is neither here nor there. My houses and properties tenants can all go bust in a recession. I wouldn’t be counting on my rent from the subway shop or hot pot franchise next month. But I’ll be expecting the bank and state Govt to foreclose me and charge me penalty rates if I don’t pay interest or land tax because you know, MPs and staffers need to fly business class.
     
    charttv and Blueskies like this.
  2. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    28th Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    2,864
    Location:
    Darwin
    My house has fluked it.

    Turns out I work for an essential service and due to my side hustle, have everything I need to work from home through this poonami.

    My wife is in childcare and apparently will retain her pay if they close.

    I am under no illusions on how lucky we are....
     
    craigc, Rugrat, The Grinch and 8 others like this.
  3. New Town

    New Town Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    8th Sep, 2015
    Posts:
    746
    Location:
    QLD & NSW
    I've previously cringed a little that most of my tenants were on welfare. Now it seems that lowers my risk of their defaulting. :oops::)
     
    Last edited: 25th Mar, 2020
  4. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Oct, 2015
    Posts:
    1,693
    Location:
    Victoria
    Your houses are Govt subsidised. Lucky. All my tenants are villified by welfare
     
    datto and New Town like this.
  5. Blueskies

    Blueskies Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    1,769
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Yes it's ironic isn't it, one of my better tenants is a hotel manager and will likely have issue, but the family with 5 kids who as far as I can tell their primary income is welfare are probably in for a cashflow boost! Maybe Logan will hold up alright!
     
    PeterW, The Y-man, mrdobalina and 2 others like this.
  6. mrdobalina

    mrdobalina Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,964
    Location:
    there's more to life than working
    I retired from work a few years ago in my late 30's. Large property portfolio generating passive rental income. Before I stopped working, I made sure to set up a large LOC to have excess funds for any opportunities too good to refuse in the future. It costed a bit to set up, and I haven't touched it to date.

    My view has always been to get credit when you don't need it, cos when you do need it, the banks won't lend it. I have a large cash buffer too (5 years worth of loan repayments). Looks like this black swan event is the perfect opportunity to invest to generate more passive income for the future.
     
  7. essendonfan

    essendonfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    27th Mar, 2019
    Posts:
    137
    Location:
    Sydney
    Stress tested family budget to ensure 6 months of zero income. Side note, its amazing when you need to tighten the belt, exactly how much you can cut back.

    It is scary how many people live pay to pay and can be whiped out in a couple of weeks
     
    HUGH72, kierank and mrdobalina like this.
  8. frankjeager

    frankjeager Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    2nd May, 2019
    Posts:
    734
    Location:
    sydney
    wow, well done.
     
  9. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    14,006
    Location:
    Brisbane
    A family member who is against our holding of properties, though a smart person, used to ask me whether I was worried about the "property bubble" and what would we do if prices fell drastically.

    So I've had in the back of my mind that this could happen, and prices have dropped more than once in the time we've held properties. Rents have also dropped through the many years, but price and rent drops never swayed my belief in making it to pension age but not needing the pension.

    We have never held many houses, never more than three but always had big debt to hold them, and done without overseas trips or nice vehicles, fancy meals. It was not a problem to us either.

    To hold onto this dream of being self-funded and able to live how we like once retired, we did stretch ourselves, and lived for many years from payday to payday, but always knew my parents were there if something really bad happened. If we needed money, we'd borrow and pay interest to my parents, and once sold a house to pay back a mounting debt, rather than me go back to work to do so. We made choices that worked for us.

    So, when this family member in recent years would ask "what happens if prices fall" I'd answer that if that happened, we would either drop rents to keep rent flowing, get our kids to move back in with us so we could all live cheaply if things got very bad.

    Or we would sell a house and possibly make a loss, but always keep in mind that if we are all healthy, then money doesn't really matter. We've been poor before, and could manage if it happened again.

    There's always been talk of infections unable to be tamed due to the indiscriminate
    use of antibiotics, so I have always worried this could cause problems but I doubt anyone really has factored in the "what if we have a global pandemic" with any more likelihood than "what if a meteorite hits the earth" or "what if a tsunami wipes out Brisbane"?

    Of course, they are all possible, and some even probable, but you cannot plan for everything.

    Right now, I'm thankful we are in a financial position better than we ever have been. If this had hit 20 years ago we would be in big trouble. Many will be in the position we were in 20 years ago and I understand the angst. This is going to hurt a lot of people, and may hurt us financially and our health.

    If we all act sensibly, listen to the health experts, we can protect ourselves, our livelihoods and our families as best we can under the circumstances.
     
    San2018, Rugrat, matt_j and 8 others like this.
  10. The_Billy

    The_Billy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Mar, 2018
    Posts:
    154
    Location:
    Sydney
    Just put all of my savings into a PPOR purchase in December so cash position is really bad right now. In hindsight, I should've purchased something cheaper with some change left over as my employment is in a high risk cyclical industry. But who would've thought something like this would happen? While it will be devastating I think you can't control what you can't control. I'm young, so I will just work through it or restart from scratch if things go south.
     
    Rugrat, matt_j, Silverson and 11 others like this.
  11. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    13,505
    Location:
    Melbourne
    A good attitude to have!

    The Y-man
     
    Silverson, TMNT and Gypsyblood like this.
  12. FXD

    FXD Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    30th Aug, 2018
    Posts:
    290
    Location:
    Melbourne, Victoria
    Only one lesson learned from current situation for me, if I were to invest in properties in the future
    it will only be commercial, servicing assessed on lease doc basis only, and also only taking out
    limited/non-recourse lending ... if such things will still be around in the future. LOL
     
  13. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    14,783
    Location:
    Sydney
    I hink commercial could be more risky than residental tbh....
     
    qak, craigc, Vine Street and 5 others like this.
  14. Blueskies

    Blueskies Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    1,769
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Good attitude, hope things work out for you.

    I can think of points in my life where I have been in this type of position - starting new jobs, buying PPOR, kids coming along and down to one income. These are times where your margin of safety is wittled away. It is not a nice place to sit and you cross your fingers and hope things go how you want. At the end of the day sometimes it just comes down to luck.
     
    Rugrat, kierank and lettert like this.
  15. spoon

    spoon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Nov, 2016
    Posts:
    1,765
    Location:
    Time-dependent
    What an encouragement for myself. Good one :)
     
    SeafordSunshine likes this.
  16. MWI

    MWI Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Jul, 2017
    Posts:
    2,287
    Location:
    Lower North Sydney NSW
    If anyone thinks they are in some even a small way unaffected by this think again...
    Some may me not out of work, but their pays may be eventually cut too? Priorities can change
    I think, we are all connected, hence I think we all will be affected?
     
  17. MWI

    MWI Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Jul, 2017
    Posts:
    2,287
    Location:
    Lower North Sydney NSW
    Large buffers in place, very low LVRs, alternative passive incomes including overseas, invested into collectibles and similar too, still in business for now, other assets possible to sell?
    Still though feel .... for masses and family abroad (sad!)
     
  18. Gypsyblood

    Gypsyblood Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    12th Dec, 2016
    Posts:
    522
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Roughly 10 months buffer in cash but I'm torn between whether I should invest or hold onto it tight for now.
    Thinking of refinancing all properties to max terms and interest only, to manage cashflow. But only half heartedly. Anyone else doing this? I've only ever gone P&I (yes even the investment properties for a no of reasons.)
     
  19. Gen-Y

    Gen-Y Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    8th Nov, 2015
    Posts:
    3,788
    Location:
    Brisbane - Sydney
    Having cash buffer for 2 years is my risk management.
    Didn't want to heavily leverage into this space since 2019 as I saw it was just safer to sit out as recessional cycle is running past their historical 10 years.
    Still have plenty of options to reduce my risk. Interest only or bank holiday for cash flow.
    Opportunity knocks every week one of my mentor says.
     
  20. The Grinch

    The Grinch Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Sep, 2019
    Posts:
    229
    Location:
    Cairns
    As an australian I definitely feel an impact, however my current financial position does not appear to be impacted, have been approached by multiple head hunters this past week. Buisness is booming I suppose in the Youth industry.
     

Buy Property Interstate WITHOUT Dropping $15k On Buyers Agents Each Time! Helping People Achieve PASSIVE INCOME Using Our Unique Data-Driven System, So You Can Confidently Buy Top 5% Growth & Cashflow Property, Anywhere In Australia