Warning , Warning , Warning , Will Robinson ....Guru Alert

Calm down, calm down! I'm not changing my will again. Thanks for offering though!

 

Disclosure I am an FP, no advice.

Nailed it right there....love the simplicity of this statement. See article "Financial Wealth is Not a Result of Investing" on my website

Success in any market comes down to individual skill.....the simple accumulation approaches like Thornhill's suit those who are happy to get a slight edge over the standard market return without much effort and the beauty of this type of approach is can largely be automated. True accelerated wealth creation however relies on the skill of being able to compound money quickly and involves a lot more decision making and research ability.

Early in my FP career I believed equity markets were almost entirely random and not predictable in any worthwhile way (due to listening to my FP peers and not questioning what I heard at the time). "It's time in the market, not timing the market that's important" we would hear over and over at training days etc. Oh yeh?.......Try telling that to the clients who bought pre GFC near the highs. Of course using education and research with the aim of timing the market to achieve better pricing counts for something.

Shortly after becoming an FP I met an incredible mentor who taught me that it IS possible to trade successfully and compound money FAR more rapidly than I ever dreamed. Of course this is not an easy road, involves higher risk and takes guts. Many fail in this pursuit but with the right guidance and determination it is a skill that can be acquired over time.

Since then I have learned that both fundamental and technical analysis provide a legitimate and significant edge both for a long term investment accumulator who never sells AND for shorter term traders.

No one can predict the exact future of a market however a skilled analyst can use relative strength, statistics, probabilities and specific charting techniques to gain an edge over time. It's one of the most difficult personal pursuits one could ever undertake. How do I know? I have been through the entire journey over the past 25 years from failing dismally in the market in the early days due to lack of knowledge and strategy, to finding a mentor (US hedge fund consultant) who proved to me rapid wealth creation can be done but showed me it takes a commitment not many would be willing to make. After 6 months with my mentor I traded a stocks portfolio from 130k in to 550k in 2 years then withdrew most of it and spread the risk. Since then I have continued to learn and refine the edge and work on better ways to filter opportunities. DYOR

 

Disclaimer should be "Warning, I am talking my book"

 

And the irony,

Warning , Warning , Warning , Will Robinson ....Guru Alert

 

@Il Falco and @turk

C'mon lads that's a bit uncalled for I am sharing my personal story. I am no guru, just a guy doing his thing.

Would you prefer I delete the site link? Was just trying to show what I do without need to spend hours typing it

Please I beg of you..... don't listen to anything I say, just dismiss it with a clever one liner.

 

To be fair, your link provides precisely zero strategy. I guess thats the "black box" that your clients have to pay for Fair enough though you are a business member. I'll say nothing more.

 

You clearly have not done any due diligence.

No black box, I don't sell software only education. Never seen an auto trade program that works.

 

Alex

I've suggested to the management that your posts , outside the obvious irony , don't have much to do with the topic .

Do you want to give a simplistic overview of how your strategy works ?

Cliff

 

Just looking at your web site and noticed that rolf Latham is your partner .

That will give you more credibility with long term members of the forum .

Cliff

 

@Alex Straker said:

Must admit the "never sell" is unusual to see coming from someone who uses T/A. That then comes mostly down to an entry strategy. Having been a T/A fanatic many years ago there's countless options obviously. It would be interesting for you to expand on the use of fundamental and technical analysis for a long term investment accumulator who "never sells".

Regardless of using NLP and the like the vast majority of traders will still fail due of psychology. It's not for the faint hearted.

 

Why is it then that no fund manager beats the index funds?

 

I thought Rolf was looking to retire years ago.

 

Hi Cliff,

Yes Rolf is my business partner and long time friend and respected colleague in the industry. We have always had strong alignment in our strategic thinking. Our focus for FP clients is to remain well grounded, carefully manage risks and focus on using cash flow to drive a structural strategy. We do not advocate trading, we advocate smart strategy and cash flow based investing over the long term.

I knew the technical analysis oriented post above was going to be controversial, I am well aware that plenty of PC folks doubt the effectiveness of market timing methods including technical analysis (TA). I have been there myself in the past. What I have learned over 25 years of personal searching and 13 years as an FP professional is that most TA taught in the public space is trashy and overly simplistic. You really have to search around to find someone willing to teach you a method that is effective which is difficult because once such a method has been discovered people tend to keep it to themselves.

The amount of scam TA out there is partly why I have established a legit education pathway towards learning industry grade TA. The other reason is simply how passionate I am about it. It's highly complex and tough to learn, you are never operating on certainty and if you don't pay attention to the money management rules and apply discipline you WILL end up shark bait for the market.

Please don't take my passion for technical analysis to mean I worship at the altar of short term trading....quite the opposite I have talked more FP clients OUT of trying to trade than the other way around. Most investors have absolutely NO business trying to trade as they will be eaten alive and are better off being long term accumulators and keeping it simple with sound strategic rules to follow and most importantly a forward mapped cash flow based plan that underpins the accumulation. None of that means trading is not a worthwhile pursuit for those with the sheer determination, brains and patience to learn. Just be prepared for a long and intense journey that will teach you more about yourself and your psychology than it will about the markets.

My intention in the post above was to encourage an open mind. If the mods see fit to remove them, I have no issues.

Happy to expand on the idea as above '...use of fundamental and technical analysis for a long term investment accumulator who never sells'. Firstly I totally agree with you @austing, psychology will scare most people out when they find out how tough it is to piece together the big jigsaw and remain consistent over time. So lets all agree that most people are not suited to short term trading and aiming to buy and sell repeatedly in the market.

In the case of a long term accumulator who just wants to build a massive portfolio of holdings the question then becomes how to outperform a given benchmark consistently without needing to be a master analyst....and the answer lies in using non-speculative quality stocks/ETF's/LIC's and educating yourself how to read relative strength and sector rotations so you can accumulate into long term strength (outperforming benchmark) using short term rotations to find temporary undervalued sectors and individual stocks. Fortunately relative strength does not require hours of toil to learn like advanced charting techniques. It can also be applied to all kinds of market vehicles - stocks, ETF's, LIC's, anything listed on the market.

@emza OMG! Great thanks for letting me know that. Note to self - must exit all active manager fund holdings Seriously though you must be kidding.

Rolf, myself, Michael Xia, Steven Ryan and a number of others in our close knit network that see each other every day refer to ourselves as "Free Range Humans" Very blurred line between lifestyle and business these days. Rolf is OS again BTW for about the 20th time this past year and has a FCF (financial comfort factor) and lifestyle most people only dream of.

 

Makes a lot of sense to me.

 

The one thing wealth creation gurus all seem to have in terms of strategies, is selling wealth creation products

Hence why I think Peter Thornhill, with a single book and a seminar once in ones life, doesn't really fall into "guru" category.

 

Got a new business idea guys and gals. Become rich, by selling a course on how to be rich.

 

Mate this is not new. Its been happening for ages!

 

Allow me to introduce you to Robert Kiyosaki. He makes his money from selling books, courses and coaching on how to become rich.

 

Or give Rolf less...

Well then you know quite well that it's a good bet to state your TA is also a scam.
Given the history, i have at least a 90% chance of being right calling anyone who uses "TA" and words like "operating on certainty" a scam (to use your own words, I actually prefer delusional).
Given that you "never sell", then I'd say me odds are at least 95%.

Your version of TA is at best an entry method which I doubt has anything complex, and the link has nothing even remotely resembling a TA method or strategy.

So why is your TA not a scam like the others you mention?