Warning , Warning , Warning , Will Robinson ....Guru Alert

More effort has gone into this thread than I have put into my entire liquid asset portfolio

 

Are you referring to wine and home brew?

 

Yes, that portion of my liquid portfolio is managed by Wine Ark

 

So you have not looked at the thread on the upside of Trump..... I would check it out, lots of effort here

I just posted this, many on PC probably wont remember the Three Stooges, I do

 

Our substantial home brew portfolio is managed by my wife. She doesn't trust me with this for some strange reason.

 

My wife lets me organise the home brew portfolio . Currently it's in a trading halt though my son wants to take over the management .

Personally I'm more inclined to wait until I can make further capital investment and upgrade my delivery systems with Barrels and a proper tap set up . Bottling is a pain , though I have invested in around 100 long necks and have them in storage ..

Cliff

 

Witches Brew?

A few of us might pop around to help you ♻ recycle those long necks. We might even hang around long enough to fill and cap them too.

 

On that note my wine portfolio hasn't ever done spectacularly well. Grange-wise I held 3x 1976 at one point, I drank one with some mates, sold one and I honestly can't remember what happened to the third. Even if I held all 3 the profit would be very minimal. Only other Grange I'm holding is a clinic'd 1983 but that hasn't budged much either

 

Now this thread's getting more interesting.

We're full steam ahead, no trading halts here. Just invested in a 40 litre Crown urn and wort for cooling. She's progressed to full grain brewing.

Further capital investment happening at Xmas. I'm buying my wife a kegging system similar to this:


An amazing Rasberry Saison she did recently:


I'm unlikely to ever experience liquidity problems unless I upset my wife.

 

Though you may start to suffer from brewer's droop.

 

Too late , they're well and truly empty

Having a sweet tooth , I perfected alcoholic Ginger beer . I used the OTC ginger beer mix from the local shop , but put in an extra bag of malt ( ) , then liquidised 250 kg of ginger in water , boiled it , and strained the resulting juice into the tub for added zest .

Was my go to brew . I used to do a nice Groltz equivalent as @Rolf Latham can attest to ( though maybe be was just being nice ...)



Cliff

 

It appears "liquidity" is one thing Property and Share investors can appreciate.

 

@austing liquid gold (& not XXXX)

 

Why didn't the guy who made all the money keep going?

Statistics say that with 100 traders at least a few of them will be successful. Just like gamblers, some win.

 

One should put a high price on their credulity and avoid Gurus. I too have witnessed some strange "road to Damascus" type moments going on with a lot of interest from prop investors in the stock market.

As far as Gurus go, I'd consider PT in the benign half of the spectrum....there is talk from some about his "business" and how that has allowed him to accumulate a lot of cash.......from selling a couple hundred books a year and running half a dozen courses that net him $2-3k each well i'll be buggered. If thats not a cottage business i dont know what is!

After having taken a very strong interest in stock investment over the last 5-6 years, I personally disagree with some of the stuff that PT believes to be true, and i have some problems the with how shall i say, carefully curated information in his course material. Having said that, comparing him to a fund spruiker is an extremely long bow to draw...and unhelpful. About as unhelpful as say throwing all Managed funds, LICs and ETFs in the very same basket when their are very material differences between them, or assessing returns over short-mid term arbitrary periods of time, or perpetuating the myth that the major indices are not investable....which has not been the case for a long time.

A lot of people are looking for easy answers with unrealistic expectations. The market is pretty efficient, as Munger said, to paraphrase...."I cant tell you a way to get rich with soft, clean hands". Prop investors apply leverage to what are well as being active assets - reno, development etc.

If you are prepared to accept the market returns, (+/-2%) that is, your share of the earnings of market, with capital growth provided by the earnings growth of the market, and perhaps some extra return from growth via price earnings multiple expansion due to opportune timing, or a tilt to a factor/strategy that works out, then it is really not too hard at all, and it might be for you. On the other hand, if you think you are going to get filthy rich from trading/investing in stocks due to a magical trading system, or product well I've got a bridge to sell you.

Real wealth comes from a combination of activity and risk. High PAYG + leveraged investments that work out, ownership stakes in private business, big bets (that may not be seen as such!) on certain asset classes with leverage etc..............and the power of time while reducing tax drag as much as possible.

GL to all.

 

I have great respect for @See Change and @austing for their contributions to the forum. Intention is neither to offend nor to support a certain view on a particular asset class but rather to share my own experience with stock markets.

I belong to the typical immigrant section many on the forum is aware of i.e. financially distressed uneducated parents toiling hard to raise a family. With a strong resolve of making life better, I naturally studied hard, did well in academics, landed in a good job. When I started looking to invest, everyone around me pointed towards real estate but soon realized that wasn't for me due to lack of liquid cash. I was using most of my salary to pay off the debt my father has incurred all through and hence had very little savings.

My search for an asset class that lets investing small amounts of cash lead me onto stocks. After educating and researching for many months, I started off with whatever savings I had in managed funds via rupee cost averaging.

Fast forward 11 years, I have made decent money via regular & boring managed fund investments. The profits were such that I have used some part of them to buy a home for my parents in India before migrating to Sydney in late 2013; used some to fund my Sydney PPOR purchase in 2015.

In short, I personally do not agree when someone says "you cannot make money in stock markets".

I wouldn't have been in this position today had I not invested in stocks then. For those who think it was all due to the bull market run in India, definitely not. GFC has had its affect there too and I'm one of those rare investors who bought extra on top of my regular investments during those gloomy times.

Chances of making money by TRADING aren't high but INVESTING regularly for a long term has it's benefits as long as one sticks to the plan.

Apologies for the long post...

 

+1

 

Il Falco and Jaik .

Thanks for the posts . Well thought out and valid points raised .

Yes, you can make money from the share market / LIC's / property and I even know someone who put his three kids though knox and PLC via betting on the horses ... He said he worked on a 2 % margin .

What I'm wary of is people who appear to give a simple solution to a very complex and difficult area .

I'm yet to see that sort of thing pan out in real life .

I'm also aware of how relatively easy it can be to make money with property investing and how some people who did that in the last cycle went to loose large amounts of money when they tried to replicate their property investing success in other areas often following the advice of one guru or another . The cash flow quadrant ( Robert Kiyosaki ) created the belief that owning businesses was the best way to do that and SN brought his own version of financial nirvana to somersoft .

There are many people who are new to property investing this cycle and have done well . This is mainly to them , to keep their radar on full alert and question everything they hear .

Cliff

 

I don't follow any gurus. My investment philosophy is to run my own race. That said, PT's is really telling people to accumulate high quality, income producing assets and hold for the long term. Despite minor quibbles about what constitutes a "quality asset", it's pretty hard to argue with 'accumulate income producing assets and hold for the long term'. As always, DYOR (Do your own research).

 

Not sure I made it clear enough what I was trying to say. My basic point was that if you're looking for people who've done extremely well, they'll nearly always have been focused on a single class because more extreme outcomes are less likely with more diversification. Hence if you focused on a single class you're more likely to do incredibly well than if you're very diversified, but are also more likely to do incredibly poorly.

I have to say (as See Change implies) all three of my points apply equally well to Gockie's constant refrain