VIC Victorian coastal towns vs inland regional towns in the next 12-17 years

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by johnmteliza, 20th Nov, 2018.

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  1. johnmteliza

    johnmteliza Well-Known Member

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    Which Victorian coastal/regional towns should you invest in for the next 12 years or so? Based on expected population growth alone, a few coastal towns seem to be the most promising.

    Population of the most popular Victorian coastal/regional towns/cities in 2016:
    1. Geelong 157,103
    2. Frankston 134,143
    3. Ballarat 93,761
    4. Bendigo 92,384
    5. Shepparton 46,194
    6. Wodonga 35,131
    7. Mildura 33,445
    8. Warrnambool 30,707
    9. Traralgon 25,482
    10. Mornington 23,989
    11. Wangaratta 18,567
    12. Ocean Grove/Barwon Heads 18,208
    13. Torquay/Jan Juc 16,942
    14. Moe/Newborough 15,062
    15. Morwell 13,540
    16. Benalla 9,296
    17. Hamilton 8,892
    18. Ararat 6,924
    19. Portarlington/St Leonards 6,883
    20. Seymour 5,842
    21. Inverloch 5,066
    22. Cowes 4,944
    If current growth rates between 2011-2016 continue, this will likely be the rank of Victoria’s most popular coastal/regional towns/cities in 2035 (approximately):
    1. Geelong 209,000
    2. Frankston 179,500
    3. Bendigo 130,000 (almost the same size as Frankston in 2016)
    4. Ballarat 125,000
    5. Shepparton 60,000
    6. Wodonga 49,000 2035
    7. Mornington 43,500 (Mornington’s population will have almost doubled and become almost the same size as Shepparton’s population in 2016)
    8. Mildura 41,700 2035
    9. Warrnambool 36,300
    10. Torquay/Jan Juc 31,300 (same size a Warrnambool and Mildura in 2016)
    11. Traralgon 29,000
    12. Ocean Grove/Barwon Heads 26,600
    13. Wangaratta 24,300
    14. Moe/Newborough 14,400 (decline since 2016)
    15. Morwell 12,900 (decline since 2016)
    16. Portarlington/St Leonards 10,100 (almost the same size as Phillip Island today)
    17. Benalla 9,100 (decline since 2016)
    18. Hamilton 7,800 (decline since 2016)
    19. Cowes 7,480
    20. Inverloch 7,460
    21. Ararat 6,500 (decline since 2016)
    22. Seymour 5,550 (decline since 2016)
    As can be seen above, Bendigo will surpass Ballarat to become the 3rd largest town and Ballarat will drop down to 4th largest. Mornington will surpass Mildura and close the gap on fast growing Wodonga by moving from 10th in 2016 to 7th in 2035 by almost doubling its population. Mornington will have also surpassed Traralgon and Warrnambool which were previously above the town. Torquay/Jan Juc will jump from 13th to 10th and have a larger population than Traralgon, Wangaratta and Ocean Grove/Barwon Heads which were previously above. Torquay/Jan Juc will also have almost doubled its population. Ocean Grove/Barwon Heads will have surpassed Wangaratta by almost doubling its population as well. Portarlington/St Leonards which is another coastal town will jump from 19th to 16th by surpassing Ararat, Benalla and Hamilton which were previously above. Inverloch will also jump up a rank and surpass Ararat and Seymour. Cowes will jump from 22nd to 19th overtaking Ararat, Seymour and Inverloch.

    Shepparton and Wodonga will also maintain a similar growth rate ensuring a similar size population gap between the two in 2035 as seen in 2016. Bendigo will have widened the gap between its population and Ballarat’s population compared to 2016. The difference in size of Wodonga’s and Mildura’s population will also have significantly increased since 2016.

    There may be a few towns not considered however it is still clear that there will likely be a change in coastal towns becoming more populous than their regional inland rivals. Consequently, popular inland towns of today will fall down the rank as new coastal towns prosper and take their place. The decline in smaller regional towns will also see people move to more populous regional towns. This is already occurring in smaller inland towns such as Ararat, Seymour, Hamilton, Benalla, Morwell and Moe/Newborough.

    Whilst not a city or town, the Mornington Peninsula’s population in 2016 was recorded as 154,999 while Geelong’s was 157,103. At the current growth rate, the Mornington Peninsula will surpass Geelong with a population of 210,000 (approx.) by 2035 while Geelong’s population will be 209,000 (approx.). Nonetheless, the Mornington Peninsula, Frankston and Geelong are all growing at a generally similar rate.

    The coastal towns also seem to be performing better in terms of median house price growth within the past 12 months when compared to those further inland as can be seen in the list below.

    Past 12 months median house price growth (CoreLogic RP data):

    Portarlington 105,000
    St Leonards 98,000
    Torquay 88,000
    Cowes 86,000
    Inverloch 82,000
    Ocean Grove 65,000
    Wangaratta 60,000
    Jan Juc 50,000
    Ballarat Central 38,000
    Mornington 31,000
    Benalla. 29,000
    Frankston 25,000
    Hamilton 21,000
    Warrnambool 20,000
    Moe 13,000
    Shepparton 12,000
    Geelong 12,000
    Newborough 12,000
    Traralgon 10,000
    Seymour 8,000
    Mildura 0
    Bendigo 0
    Morwell 0
    Wodonga -10,000
    Ararat -16,000
    Barwon Heads -25,000

    RiskWise also found that seachange areas performed significantly better than treechange areas. Seachange areas are particularly better over longer term investments as can be seen over 5 years.
     

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  2. tommo c

    tommo c Well-Known Member

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    I'm not too sure about growth perspectives, but Wodonga being so close to the bordering Albury, I feel, that you need to consider both towns as a whole, despite the different state. Not sure on the total numbers in the combined area, but I think it would be close to 100,000 as a whole, which puts it almost on par with Bendigo and Ballarat on population.

    Comparing 'Albury/Wodonga' to Bendigo, Ballarat, and the big 2 in Frankston/Geelong though, in my honest opinion, you'd find a far greater capital growth in the regional cities closer to Melbourne.

    In the changing market we have now though, yield is going to play a major role in lending. I can't imagine the yields in Geelong and Frankston are that flash anymore!
     
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  3. BuyersAgent

    BuyersAgent Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Overall I agree I am seeing the trend first hand of people moving to coastal towns in the 2-4 hours from the city range and it doesn't seem to be stopping. This is happening in VIC, NSW and QLD as far as I can see with East/West of Melbourne, North/South of Sydney and North/South of Brisbane. Which ones should you pick? Find your own blend of the most desirable and most convenient and most affordable and see what infrastructure is going into those and you should find a good shortlist.
     
  4. paulF

    paulF Well-Known Member

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    Good thread. Thanks for putting the effort in pulling all those numbers out.

    I looked at Torquay/Jan Juc a few years back (around 2015) when prices where around the 600k for a 3 bedder and thought that the RE market there was a bit overvalued and now i think it's crazy expensive. I never thought that the fundamentals added up to merit such prices but i was obviously wrong since prices have shot up to over 800k in 2 years. Still don't get why RE is so expensive there. Maybe loaded retirees moving that way in droves ?
     
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  5. johnmteliza

    johnmteliza Well-Known Member

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    Albury's and Wodonga's combined population in 2016 was 86,207. This would place the combined area just above Shepparton and below Bendigo. At the current growth rate the combined area could be expected to hit 113,100 by 2035. Again, the area would remain between Ballarat and Shepparton on the list.

    Albury hasn't been that great in terms of growth in the past 12 months. The median house price has gone up by $18,000. However, the 4 bedroom median house price has actually decreased by $52,000 in the past 12 months. Similarly, nearby Wodonga's median house price has declined over the period.
     
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  6. johnmteliza

    johnmteliza Well-Known Member

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    Infrastructure is key to making these more regional areas more appealing for commuters. Coastal satellite cities such as Mornington and Frankston are likely to benefit from the new Mordialloc Freeway and even the removal of traffic lights on the Dingley Bypass. Also, the removal of other intersections along Nepean Highway will be beneficial. These projects will significantly reduce the commute from the city to these areas. The extension of the Frankston train line to the Mornington Peninsula will also make the area more accessible. Even level crossing removals along the Frankston train line are improving the commute.

    Geelong is set to benefit from high speed rail as well as other regional towns such as Ballarat, Bendigo, Wangaratta, Shepparton and Wodonga. In most cases, the travel time to these areas will be reduced by 40 minutes because of the high speed rail projects proposed.
     
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  7. alicudi

    alicudi Well-Known Member

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    If they ever build a fast rail connecting Melbourne to Sydney, I think Albury/Wodonga could easily become the biggest growth regional area assuming the train has a stop in that area.
     
    Last edited: 21st Nov, 2018
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  8. Todd

    Todd Well-Known Member

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    Great thread @johnmteliza thanks for the info. One town missed here is Colac which would come in 16th at a population of 12,674 and pop growth rate of 1.5% the past 5 years. Median house price up 11% the past 12 months, has benefitted big time from the ripple out of Melbourne and Geelong and the almost completed dual freeway Colac-Geelong and the affordability having a median house price of just 300k. Once dual highway completed will be 1.5 hours from Colac to Melbourne. I feel it still has some good growth prospects going forwards and the IP I own there, valuation has gone from 300k to 365k the past 18 months.
     
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  9. Beelzebub

    Beelzebub Well-Known Member

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    Yep, I think Colac would be a good affordable bet. Not so much due to its one and a half hours from Colac but due to the soon to be commutable distance to employment hubs in Geelong due to the duplication of the Princess Hwy. Particularly as prices from Geelong continue to rise. I guess that ripple continues out and out.
     
  10. MikeyBallarat

    MikeyBallarat Well-Known Member

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    I’m not familiar with the area, but why wouldn’t you buy in NSW over VIC due to lower stamp duty?
     
  11. Beelzebub

    Beelzebub Well-Known Member

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    And potentially land tax
     
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  12. MikeyBallarat

    MikeyBallarat Well-Known Member

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    Yes that too
     
  13. tommo c

    tommo c Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely agree - could definitely become THE midpoint between both major cities, which would see it boom! However when my folks moved to the area 25yrs ago and there was talk of a 'fast train' in the works then, and how it could be only a decade away.. Not sure we're going to see it in the next 25yrs!
     
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  14. johnmteliza

    johnmteliza Well-Known Member

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  15. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    Great post! Really good insight.
    Their is no denying more people are looking to make a tree/sea change. The reality is their is becoming less and less reliance for people to always be in the office.
    In our head office (Melbourne CBD) we have around 60 staff and majority are given the freedom to work from home 1 day per week.
    We have a few people that commute from Geelong and they work 2 days from home.

    The biggest limitation is still poor internet by worlds standards but this is improving. The other thing is most companies are now becoming full cloud based so the days of slow VPN over Remote Desktop is becoming less a problem.

    I imagine in the next 5 years, the ability to work from home won’t be a perk, it will simply be a must.

    So with less need to be in the City the long journey becomes less an issue (would you suck up a longer trip if you had to do it less frequently??). But if they address this which their is ALWAYS talks of! But let’s say they do make fast rail to the regionals to cut travel times by 30-40 minutes. And they fix roads and create bypasses (such as Drysdale bypass)....

    I personally believe regionals will definitely go through a long period of out performing the
    Cities. I know with certainty I’ll be heading coastal.
     
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  16. Koshy

    Koshy New Member

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  17. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    Great post! Really good insight.
    Their is no denying more people are looking to make a tree/sea change. The reality is their is becoming less and less reliance for people to always be in the office.
    In our head office (Melbourne CBD) we have around 60 staff and majority are given the freedom to work from home 1 day per week.
    We have a few people that commute from Geelong and they work 2 days from home.

    The biggest limitation is still poor internet by worlds standards but this is improving. The other thing is most companies are now becoming full cloud based so the days of slow VPN over Remote Desktop is becoming less a problem.

    I imagine in the next 5 years, the ability to work from home won’t be a perk, it will simply be a must.

    So with less need to be in the City the long journey becomes less an issue (would you suck up a longer trip if you had to do it less frequently??). But if they address this which their is ALWAYS talks of! But let’s say they do make fast rail to the regionals to cut travel times by 30-40 minutes. And they fix roads and create bypasses (such as Drysdale bypass).
     
  18. MikeyBallarat

    MikeyBallarat Well-Known Member

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    Not that I would expect anything different from you, but that is a brilliant post.
     
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  19. johnmteliza

    johnmteliza Well-Known Member

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    This article may interest you and shows a real example in St Andrews Beach.

    Mornington Peninsula attracts growing cohort of people working from home

    I agree and fortunately, the majority of regional areas have NBN service which may mean internet isn't as big of problem as you'd think. Yet some of the metropolitan city suburbs still don't have NBN.
     
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  20. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    That article was more specific to people operating their own business but I have no doubt the trend has already commenced for employees as well.

    And yes your definitely right about the NBN, I’m 14k from CBD and no NBN in-site. Heck I’m so far from the exchange that I run a 4G modem and just got a load of shared data on my wife and I mobile plan.

    Like I said once something is actually done in Geelong with the fast rail I will likely move toward Queenscliff. Work from home 1-2 days and then enjoy a fast rail on the others.
    Actually cannot wait!
     
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