Hi All, Just a quick introduction from me. I am a big believer in value investing i.e. buy when an asset is undervalued, sell when the asset is overvalued. I believe we have been in a residential property bubble the past 5 years in Australia (especially Sydney where i am based) and property is overvalued. This has been fueled by a credit boom which i believe is now "maxed out" and ready to deflate, subsequently bringing down property prices with it. However, i also believe in the power of investing in property over the long term and am starting to take keen interest now in making sure i am market ready when the cycle comes nearer to "bottom of market". Via this forum I am hoping to learn from other investors previous mistakes and any tips and tricks to take into my investing future. I appreciate the value of this forum and the community and look forward to interacting with you all moving forward. Regards, Dean
If ppl got into markets 4-5 years ago in Syd and Melb its likely they'd have done very well. Even in Brissy if you bought right stock in right places. Too much talk these days has become 'academic' and less focused on getting in on the action with risk taken into account .
I don't own any property however I have other investments, in hindsight I should have bought in 2011 when I got married however i believed the market was still expensive at the time. I said "nearer to bottom of market" not pick "bottom of market". HTW offer a fairly accurate property clock to help with identifying bottom of market, or at least getting close to it. Like I said I want to use property as a wealth creation vehicle but I believe the risk of a correction/crash hasn't been greater than now, if it hasn't started already.
Value investing needs the ability to spot a cheap asset. But you thought 2011 prices were expensive, when it was pretty much the bottom of the cycle. Sure sydney is falling now, but when will you buy? When its cashflow positive? When its 3 times salary? More likely the current downturn will end when you still think its expensive, and you watch another cycle pass by.
welcome to PC @dengus curious to know how did you arrive this conclusion: "I believe we have been in a residential property bubble the past 5 years in Australia (especially Sydney where i am based) and property is overvalued. This has been fueled by a credit boom which i believe is now "maxed out" and ready to deflate, subsequently bringing down property prices with it. "
There would be many on here, including myself, that would disagree. That clock has some wild swings from month to month and you would use it at your peril IMO.
Alan, what would you use? Or is it always a good time to buy when you're a buyers agent? I'm hear to learn so educate me.
A combination of many things. Stats on DOM, vendor discounting, median price growth last 10 years compared to now (is it slowing?), rental demand, planned infrastructure spends (but not pie-in-the-sky polly promises) but a good part is what you see at the coal-face every day - how many people attending Open homes, when do the offers come it, at what level etc. I get the sarcasm, but no, it is not always a good time to buy - i.e. Perth in the past 10 years. Although, to be fair, there are always bargains to be found in any market. Keep reading, there is a wealth of info on this forum.
You might want to read the form a little longer to understand better. Reading from you posts, it seems you have already had a conclusion or opinion re the housing market, and argue your point, it might be difficult for you.
Did you watch the video Eric? What are your thoughts? I'm willing to learn and want to invest in property. I have been reading alot of posts and have found the forum immensely helpful thus far.
