International US markets overvalued? - Early signs of flight to safety (USD) emerging

Great post! I'm not sure it's just the US economy that looks like a house of cards!!

 

Going to also be dependent on sourcing finance, this is in part why I think investors are jumping into shares they have some equity to play with, they can not now source finance in current environment and also looking for higher yields

I have stopped developing property in Australia as the numbers stopped making sense in Melbourne.

Prey and hold as long as the yields makes sense I guess? There may not be any options especially if markets soften

MTR

 

Regarding the USA economy or more specifically the USD.

Its heading one way over time- down. MTR be very careful with your USA imvestments. FX moves are going to hurt.

Further detail- please listen to this 5 part Macrovoices podcast.

Anatomy of the U.S. Dollar End Game Part 1 of 5

 

Been enjoying the currency play since 2011 when Aud$ was at parity with US, we wont see this again any time soon. Glory days and the mother of all mining booms

Also when bringing money home to Oz I add around 30% additional income, very nice rental income.

I am playing with a mix of US$ and Aussie$.

I don't plan to sell, because I cant get the same high returns on my investments in Australia, shares wont cut it.

I am very concerned at the moment and it has nothing to do with US$, but trying to source suitable properties its very stressful competing with every man and his dog.

I also started a thread on Australian Dollar you may find this interesting?

Read this -
Verrender: Why the Aussie dollar is set for a dive

Aussie dollar will fall to US68c, with economy stuck in slow lane: Westpac

and of course everything can go to hell if North Korea and US go to war, but that will impact the world..... fingers crossed I dont have a bunker

 

Nice one. I'll have a look at that thread that you linked. Thanks

 

Worth a read...

US Outlook | Russell Investments

 

If your on a train, why would you get off before it stops moving?

 

I am not sure if any one is trolling.
But the question on the state of the US economy is valid for all of us regardless of where you are invested.

As correctly pointed out, the ASX has hardly shot the lights out since GFC. But it is steady progression. The US market looks more like bitcoin in comparison.

Which brings up crypto and tech stock valuations.
Both of which feel very toppy to me.

As for Trump's contribution, well the economy was already kicking goals well before he was elected. There has been a bit of extra confidence form the Trump effect and he certainly hasn't hindered it. But most of the credit does not lie with him.

From your on the ground experience MTR what makes you confident the US economy can continue to perform? Or more directly, that the share market is not over valued and is not in line for a correction?
From what I have read of your investments, I would be sleeping easy regardless. But that is not to say that the state of the economy is not important.

 

I do not invest in US shares, have no idea if they are overvalued?? mentioned this a number of times now, so I am not an expert... perhaps Alex can help here??

Please read my links that will give you an idea why I continue to buy US property and of course its what I am also seeing on the ground. For more info.... there are a number of threads on US property market which provides details on what is actually happening and why property markets in most States in US continue to rise.

What happens in the future I don't have a crystal ball I will be paying attention to volume.... happy to revisit this thread in 6 months time...



MTR

 

Fair enough.
Only my super has exposure to the US share market but I follow it with keen interest.

As proven multiple times, if the US share market crashes, it has implications for all investment classes. In recent history the US property market in particular. Which is what provided you with the opportunity that you have taken advantage of. And well done for doing so!

 

Thanks

If you are concerned regarding US shares can you reduce your exposure??

MTR

 

why Perth?
Indonesian is already on top of the ladder in term of immigrants to australia
There's a developer having exposure to Perth, is mining recovering yet

 

no not really

 

Of course.

I will discuss elsewhere.

 

this is the sort of stuff I am interested in. Which way the economy is going and what is driving the economy

I think the recent tax cuts will be massive for US and big business, the next 12 months is going to be ripper I think. GPD at 3% but expecting this to rise. This is one way of determining the health of an economy

Apple's multi-billion dollar response to the Trump tax cuts

 

Here is what the expert guru has to say about US stock market....


Warren Buffett: I still like the stock market because of the bond market

 

So Alex perhaps you are right, however its also impacting on other markets including Oz share market

Time to sit and watch how this plays out.... wheres my popcorn

 

I posted a forecast of the coming potential worldwide crash on Sunday night (4 Feb)

World Indices Roundup - Jan/Feb 2018 Major Top?

Exciting times huh? This year is going to be awesome!!

 

@Alex Straker - love your work. Still don't understand most of it - but totally love what you do and what you share.