International US markets overvalued? - Early signs of flight to safety (USD) emerging

Discussion in 'Sharemarket News & Market Analysis' started by Alex Straker, 6th Dec, 2017.

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  1. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    ..... Am I the only one seeing this on PC, but its Aussie stocks, everyone champing at the bit to increase debt ..... No idea if the bull will turn to bear??? just saying....

    MTR
     
  2. Biz

    Biz Well-Known Member

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    What's worrying to me is that it's been 10 years since the GFC and we really haven't recovered. Just seems like there is more debt than ever before. We haven't had a rate rise in 7 years!
     
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  3. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    FWIW.....SPY technical outlook showing a very solid resistance zone ahead plus strong timing lines cluster Dec/Jan/Feb (or April at latest). Strong monthly close above 3,000 would negate the resistance and more likely mean the bull run will continue. Otherwise look for price reactions to the resistance zone and new swings down plus increase in volume and volatility generally - all potential signs of new bear market.

    If the above does eventuate SPY should be in a downtrend until October 2018 minimum and possibly much longer.

    SPY 11JAN18.png

    No Advice
     
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  4. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Alex please keep them coming.

    I really do need to look at these charts before the afternoon home brew session.
     
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  5. Foxdan

    Foxdan Well-Known Member

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    US stock long term chart
    B52BB925-9E5D-425F-B441-8FCF2D7814CA.png

    AUS long term chart
    DD2C4835-D9E4-4779-910D-8C3C291B53F1.jpeg

    Australian stock market is more or less sitting on the long term trend... cant say the same for the US market.... Still looking to dabble in great US economy @MTR ?
    I think @Alex Straker is right to be wary....
     
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  6. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    I am losing sleep over these charts:p LOL

    Loving US and still increasing my income, looking for more of these babies
    How I increased my income
     
    Last edited: 12th Jan, 2018
  7. Foxdan

    Foxdan Well-Known Member

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    So if you are so invested and confident in the US market, how about you outline why you think the economy there has a positive outlook?
    And can you do it without just googling a news article that supports your opinion? Each time you respond to my posts, you edit them about 3 times so I find it hard to keep up with the speed of your googling skills.

    Fed has raised rates 3 times in the past year? So from the historically low rates, each rate raise means a significant jump in repayments for anyone with US loan repayments.
    US share market is at historic highs, far exceeding Price to equity ratios of dotcom bust and the GFC. Debt levels are higher than during GFC, Housing market is apparently still rising, consumer spending is dropping. What underpins your confidence besides media sentiment from Fox News?

    What are you going to do if aus dollar keeps increasing relative to the US dollar? How is your cash flow surplus looking when its AUS conversion value is dropped and US fed keeps increasing loan repayment costs via interest rates? What are you going to do when that happens? Even if you paid cash for your houses, if US dollar drops as expected, your cash flow is dropping too.

    The whole US economy looks like a house of cards to me waiting for a trigger. Would love to hear a valid argument for why you are so confident in their market.
     
    Last edited: 12th Jan, 2018
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  8. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Now you got me worried possum, I probably need some medication after this scary post...

    while you keep on trolling me, I will just keep collecting houses:p



    MTR
     
    Last edited: 13th Jan, 2018
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  9. Foxdan

    Foxdan Well-Known Member

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    I’m not trolling at all. I’m genuinely interested in why you have such optimism for the US economy and your investment strategy.
    You’ve stated regularly that it’s all all about due diligence and I’m sure forum members would like to read a contribution that contains analysis of your strategy.
    To me, buying lots of relatively cheap properties in the USA as a cash flow play seems risky when you are relying on a positive currency conversion to keep it all going. But I’d love to be corrected on why you think it’s a good risk given you have spruiked your method and linked it above as evidence of an intelligent strategy.
    What happens if usd / aus conversion drops 30%? Will you be sitting on negative equity? No big deal if you live in the USA, but if you plan on living in AUS, surely this is a dent to your cash flow to live on?

    I’m not trolling, I’d just love to see some analysis to support the US property strategy if you think its a strategy that will help the forum community.
     
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  10. Foxdan

    Foxdan Well-Known Member

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    So you won’t provide any information to support your strategy and you won’t provide any detail that would be useful to help others on the forum implement a similar strategy?
    So the forum members can expect more vague references to how profitable it is investing in the USA with no substance to your posts.
    At least the other alterntiave threads like LIC / thornhill / crypto threads have plenty of valuable contributors l to help people learn of those that have done it. Shame there will be no valuable USA thread.
     
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  11. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    I’ve only just had a look at this thread now and actually thought you were asking reasonable questions. But I’ve only skimmed through it admitadly. Then again I’m a very conservative type so tend to be a bit on the cautious side and like to take a more contrarian view. I just feel there’s a much greater margin of safety investing that way especially when using leverage. I struggle to invest when everything looks too rosy. Maybe I’m just a negative person looking for excuses not to invest in the US now:).
     
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  12. luckyone

    luckyone Well-Known Member

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    Just for those who aren't aware, you can get free access to any paid news articles by googling the heading. In this case "Beware the great capitulation". The first link (usually) will be to the article and will let you in.
     
  13. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    I dont entertain trolls, talk to the hand (foxdan)

    There are many threads on US market on PC, and by other posters ???
    I doubt foxdan has read any of these, including threads of actual numbers ..... but his a troll, I own no US shares whatsoever, so no idea what he is on about.

    Assumptions.....I am investing using AUD$ and not US$.???

    Dont you love forums

    Time for a home brew ...dont feed the troll

    @Foxdan troll less, learn more
     
    Last edited: 13th Jan, 2018
  14. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    Fair enough. I probably shouldn’t even have commented as I’m in infamiliar territory when it comes to US property given I’m a Shares person. The US sharemarket is a bit too optimistic for a contrarian investor like myself. I’m clueless as to what property is doing over there as I don’t follow it:oops:.
     
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  15. Foxdan

    Foxdan Well-Known Member

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    I have hundreds of posts and double the amount of “likes” for contributing where I see it as valuable.

    You just refuse to answer a simple question on what underpins your positive sentiment in the USA economy. Not hard to answer it in a few paragraphs?

    Unless you can’t answer it and your just riding momentum? Momentum is also a valid investment strategy if you have an exit strategy. Just ask the smart crypto guys....
     
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  16. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    All good
     
  17. Foxdan

    Foxdan Well-Known Member

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    Adding value? I just outlined my opinion detail on why I don’t have positive sentiment for the USA economy at the moment. I asked for your version given you have an opposite view to me.

    Your response was to call me a troll because I asked your counter argument. Having an alternative view to you and asking for you to support your opinion does not make me a troll.

    I’m still not sure where your contribution to this thread is?
     
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  18. Foxdan

    Foxdan Well-Known Member

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    Because they are reasonable questions.... I’ve asked yourself and plenty of others questions on “why” and they always present information that supports their opinion....
     
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  19. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Because you have ignored evidence I have already provided regarding US economy and property.....on this thread as it suits your agenda.

    You also ignore the fact that I am buying property (read the heading/topic), I don't buy US shares, no idea if they are overvalued or not... don't even care.

    Why you included me in this thread as I mentioned is purely to troll??

    I have a diversified property portfolio and have been also playing/developing in property markets in Australia, view my projects on media.

    You own no properties in US and you are chasing shadows

    A dead give away was that you Did not even know interest rates in US have already risen :eek: ... Until I pointed this out......omg......
     
    Last edited: 13th Jan, 2018
  20. Ouga

    Ouga Well-Known Member

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    @Foxdan mate you are looking for something that’s just not there I’m afraid.
     
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